BTC is at one of those levels where I wouldn't be in a rush to make a decision.
The move back toward $80K looks good, but the trendline that has been controlling this structure is sitting right around $80–81K.
For a new entry, I'd rather see BTC actually close above it on the weekly than trade above it for a few hours and call it a breakout.
Especially this week.
Nvidia earnings, Core PCE, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, then Warsh at Jackson Hole and the preliminary benchmark revision to US employment data on Friday.
That's a lot for the market to digest in just a few days.
And since we're already this close to month-end, waiting for the weekly confirmation basically puts the monthly close into play as well.
I think that's useful here because the question isn't really whether BTC can trade above $80–81K.
Of course it can.
The question is whether it can stay there after all of these catalysts are out of the way.
If it does, the structure starts looking much more interesting to me.
If it pushes through the trendline during the week and loses it again into the close, then you probably saved yourself from chasing another fakeout.
Sometimes waiting a few days costs you a slightly worse entry.
Sometimes it saves you from a much worse trade.
Around a level like this, with this kind of week ahead, I'm fine paying a little more for confirmation.
The move back toward $80K looks good, but the trendline that has been controlling this structure is sitting right around $80–81K.
For a new entry, I'd rather see BTC actually close above it on the weekly than trade above it for a few hours and call it a breakout.
Especially this week.
Nvidia earnings, Core PCE, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, then Warsh at Jackson Hole and the preliminary benchmark revision to US employment data on Friday.
That's a lot for the market to digest in just a few days.
And since we're already this close to month-end, waiting for the weekly confirmation basically puts the monthly close into play as well.
I think that's useful here because the question isn't really whether BTC can trade above $80–81K.
Of course it can.
The question is whether it can stay there after all of these catalysts are out of the way.
If it does, the structure starts looking much more interesting to me.
If it pushes through the trendline during the week and loses it again into the close, then you probably saved yourself from chasing another fakeout.
Sometimes waiting a few days costs you a slightly worse entry.
Sometimes it saves you from a much worse trade.
Around a level like this, with this kind of week ahead, I'm fine paying a little more for confirmation.
