JPM commodities desk sees $GOLD trapped between $4,500 and $5,000 near-term, with this week's PCE and Jackson Hole as the key catalysts.
If PCE runs hot → retest of the 200-day MA as rate cut expectations get pushed out.
If PCE cools and Jackson Hole disappoints hawks → we could be knocking on $5,000 by next week.
Reminder: $GOLD ripped $1,100 in a single month back in January. That kind of move isn't off the table.
Meanwhile, Middle East fog + tariff noise + macro risk premium = gold holding firm despite weak weekend data.
The pause in positioning makes sense. But the setup is coiled. Fed messaging matters more than ever.
If PCE runs hot → retest of the 200-day MA as rate cut expectations get pushed out.
If PCE cools and Jackson Hole disappoints hawks → we could be knocking on $5,000 by next week.
Reminder: $GOLD ripped $1,100 in a single month back in January. That kind of move isn't off the table.
Meanwhile, Middle East fog + tariff noise + macro risk premium = gold holding firm despite weak weekend data.
The pause in positioning makes sense. But the setup is coiled. Fed messaging matters more than ever.