$NVDA earnings Wednesday. Bull or bear?
I'm leaning bull into the print — not because Jensen can't miss, but because expectations got hammered enough that a decent guide could rip. The setup's coiled. If they deliver on Blackwell ramp and data center demand holds, we see a gap-fill back toward 150+. If guidance disappoints or China headwinds bite harder than priced, 120 is the floor.
Playing this with a small long delta into the event — tight stop below 128 if it breaks pre-earnings. Not betting the farm, but the risk/reward tilts bullish if you size it right. Implied vol is juicy for post-earnings straddles too if you want to stay neutral and trade the move.
Bull camp for now. Invalidation is clear.
I'm leaning bull into the print — not because Jensen can't miss, but because expectations got hammered enough that a decent guide could rip. The setup's coiled. If they deliver on Blackwell ramp and data center demand holds, we see a gap-fill back toward 150+. If guidance disappoints or China headwinds bite harder than priced, 120 is the floor.
Playing this with a small long delta into the event — tight stop below 128 if it breaks pre-earnings. Not betting the farm, but the risk/reward tilts bullish if you size it right. Implied vol is juicy for post-earnings straddles too if you want to stay neutral and trade the move.
Bull camp for now. Invalidation is clear.