Bitcoin has now retraced all the gains recorded since the self-proclaimed “Crypto President” Donald Trump was elected on November 5, 2024.

More strikingly, despite purchasing $30.7 billion of Bitcoin since that election, MicroStrategy’s average acquisition price of roughly $76,000 is now underwater.

In total, the company has accumulated $49.6 billion of Bitcoin since August 2020, yet currently has no unrealized profit to show for an asset long marketed as one that “only goes up.”

The losses extend beyond Bitcoin. Bitmine shareholders are holding approximately $6.6 billion in unrealized losses after the firm acquired $15.4 billion in Ethereum at an average price of $3,949, with ETH now trading roughly 40% lower.

Investors who relied on Wall Street narratives and promotional optimism, rather than market structure, on-chain signals, and technical regimes, are now absorbing losses measured in the (hundreds of) billions.

In our report published one week ago (here), we flagged that Bitcoin’s trend models had turned bearish.

Ahead of the official nomination of Kevin Warsh, we also warned that his policy stance would likely be negative for Bitcoin, building on an earlier report from December 13, 2025 (here), which examined his track record and its potential implications for digital assets.

Our Friday Market Update reinforced this view (here), advising traders to remain defensively positioned amid deteriorating market structure, weakening on-chain indicators, and bearish technical signals.

Consistent with that framework, we published an additional report on Friday (here) highlighting that key technical support levels were breaking down. Since then, Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen a further 10% and 15%, respectively.

While we correctly identified the Bitcoin bottom on October 28, 2022 (here), well before the data formally turned, we have once again refined our framework and sharpened our positioning for this cycle, and we will identify the next inflection point when conditions align.

But what does a true worst-case downside scenario for Bitcoin look like?

The data offer a useful framework.

Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/the-crypto-warsh-washout-continues-how-far-can-bitcoin-fall