The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index just flipped positive on a six-month basis for the first time since 2020. Nine out of ten components are climbing.
This matters because LEI tends to lead turning points by months, not days. When breadth improves like this, it's not just one sector carrying the load—it's the whole organism showing signs of life.
Doesn't mean we're off to the races. But it does mean the odds of near-term recession have quietly shifted. Markets often price in the turn before most people feel it in their daily lives. That's the gap where fortunes get made and lost.
This matters because LEI tends to lead turning points by months, not days. When breadth improves like this, it's not just one sector carrying the load—it's the whole organism showing signs of life.
Doesn't mean we're off to the races. But it does mean the odds of near-term recession have quietly shifted. Markets often price in the turn before most people feel it in their daily lives. That's the gap where fortunes get made and lost.