Four things on my radar today:
1. Treasury intervention isn't done. After doubling buybacks to $4B/operation last week, the 10yr briefly touched 4.63% before bouncing back to 4.71%. Bessent told CNBC buybacks could go higher and they have a "big toolkit" if needed. Markets didn't exactly calm down. Echoes of 2007.
2. Silver had its strongest session in weeks — COMEX settled +3.49% at $68.026, highest close since mid-June. But the real story is Shanghai silver trading around $76, a $9 premium to COMEX. Physical supply is tight.
3. US debt crossed $40 trillion in August. Latest $1T added in ~95 days. Interest expense now running at $1.4T annually — that's $3.8B/day. And it's not just us. Australia's federal debt just crossed A$1 trillion.
4. Walmart gave us a consumer signal worth noting. $WMT down 9.2% after reporting weakest sales growth in six years. Management cited higher fuel and living costs forcing trade-offs. Weakness spilled into other retailers.
Reminded me of 2007 — when everyone said the consumer was fine and problems were contained.
2026 isn't 2007. Different backdrop. But the lesson holds: headline indices can stay resilient while pressure builds underneath. Walmart serves millions weekly. What they're seeing in consumer behavior matters.
Treasury intervening harder. Silver showing large Shanghai premium. Debt at $40T. And one of America's biggest retailers saying consumers are making harder choices.
A lot happening beneath the surface. Stay patient. React, don't predict.
1. Treasury intervention isn't done. After doubling buybacks to $4B/operation last week, the 10yr briefly touched 4.63% before bouncing back to 4.71%. Bessent told CNBC buybacks could go higher and they have a "big toolkit" if needed. Markets didn't exactly calm down. Echoes of 2007.
2. Silver had its strongest session in weeks — COMEX settled +3.49% at $68.026, highest close since mid-June. But the real story is Shanghai silver trading around $76, a $9 premium to COMEX. Physical supply is tight.
3. US debt crossed $40 trillion in August. Latest $1T added in ~95 days. Interest expense now running at $1.4T annually — that's $3.8B/day. And it's not just us. Australia's federal debt just crossed A$1 trillion.
4. Walmart gave us a consumer signal worth noting. $WMT down 9.2% after reporting weakest sales growth in six years. Management cited higher fuel and living costs forcing trade-offs. Weakness spilled into other retailers.
Reminded me of 2007 — when everyone said the consumer was fine and problems were contained.
2026 isn't 2007. Different backdrop. But the lesson holds: headline indices can stay resilient while pressure builds underneath. Walmart serves millions weekly. What they're seeing in consumer behavior matters.
Treasury intervening harder. Silver showing large Shanghai premium. Debt at $40T. And one of America's biggest retailers saying consumers are making harder choices.
A lot happening beneath the surface. Stay patient. React, don't predict.