🚨 TODAY: Gas just hit $4.14 a gallon, and it's not the Fed's inflation fight getting harder, it's the war in the Middle East showing up at the pump.
The national average is now up 30% from a year ago, when drivers paid $3.15 per gallon.
This isn't a slow grind. Since the Iran conflict began in late February, gas has spiked as high as $4.55 in May, a 54% jump from pre-war levels near $2.96. Prices eased through summer, dipping to $3.93 in July, before climbing right back above $4.10 this month.
The reason is showing up in real time. Trump said this week no talks are underway with Iran, while announcing fresh economic pressure on Tehran. Iran says its naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains in place. Tanker traffic through the strait, which normally carries a fifth of the world's oil, is still running a fraction of pre-war volume.
Every state is feeling it. California sits highest at $5.66 a gallon, Texas lowest at $3.60, but even Texas is up double digits year over year, no state has been spared.
This matters far beyond the pump. Gas prices feed directly into headline inflation, and higher fuel costs ripple into shipping, food, and virtually every consumer good. Just as the Fed weighs whether it can start cutting rates, energy costs driven by geopolitics, not domestic demand, are pulling in the opposite direction.
The Fed doesn't set oil prices. But it's the one that has to clean up the inflation math when they spike.
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