$Gold ripped a fat green candle yesterday off Treasury news. Hasn't confirmed above $4380 technically, but I'm calling it a breakout anyway.
Does that mean I was wrong about a bottom? Maybe.
Do I still think $3900 or lower is in play? Yeah.
BUT — odds of dropping below $4000 again just shrunk. I'd put it around 20% now.
LEVELS:
$4380 now support. $4600 resistance above that. $4850 after.
TRADES:
If you're long already, sit tight. I'm flat and if I missed the bottom, whatever — no one catches every bottom. If this is the start of the next bull run and gold runs to $10k or wherever people are dreaming, entering now isn't terrible.
ENTRIES:
I don't buy after big green candles. After any breakout on any asset, I wait for one of two setups:
1) Retrace back to the breakout level
2) Clean bull flag
So on gold, I'd enter long on a pullback to $4380 or a solid flag here.
For now, I wait.
Could it just rip straight up from here? YEP. And if it does, I miss it again. That's the game.
$GDX $GLL
Does that mean I was wrong about a bottom? Maybe.
Do I still think $3900 or lower is in play? Yeah.
BUT — odds of dropping below $4000 again just shrunk. I'd put it around 20% now.
LEVELS:
$4380 now support. $4600 resistance above that. $4850 after.
TRADES:
If you're long already, sit tight. I'm flat and if I missed the bottom, whatever — no one catches every bottom. If this is the start of the next bull run and gold runs to $10k or wherever people are dreaming, entering now isn't terrible.
ENTRIES:
I don't buy after big green candles. After any breakout on any asset, I wait for one of two setups:
1) Retrace back to the breakout level
2) Clean bull flag
So on gold, I'd enter long on a pullback to $4380 or a solid flag here.
For now, I wait.
Could it just rip straight up from here? YEP. And if it does, I miss it again. That's the game.
$GDX $GLL