$BTW update: last week's thesis played out, the picture has completely changed now.
Last week I talked about withdrawals to fresh wallets that were holding, a low L/S, and big accounts sitting on the opposite side. Since August 14, price has gone up 3x.
The picture looks very different now.
The numbers
>Price 0.64724, +76.20% in 24h
>Market cap 1.70B
>Open interest 157.32M, +70.9% in 24h
>Futures volume 738.76M
>Spot volume 61.91M
>Funding 0.0575%
>L/S ratio 0.44
>Top trader positions 1.56
>Taker buy/sell 1.12
The split is still there, but it is not the main story anymore
L/S at 0.44, top trader positions at 1.56. Last week's split is still present, even wider now. But it does not stand out the way it did, because price has already made its move.
Open interest grew even faster than price
Price is up 76% in 24h while open interest is up 70.9%. Almost lockstep. That tells you this rally is being carried by fresh leverage. Most of these positions were opened in the last day.
That is about as fragile a structure as it gets. Nobody has a cost basis, nobody's patience has been tested.
The liquidation number confirms it
3.04M liquidated in 24 hours. This move was not painless, both sides got cleared along the way.
Funding flipped positive and is climbing
0.0575, and the trend is clear: 0.04, 0.02, 0.02, 0.07, 0.06, 0.05. Longs are paying now.
That flips last week's picture. Back then shorts were crowded and paying. Now longs are not exactly crowded, but the size they are carrying has put them on the paying side.
Futures at 11.9x spot
Spot volume is 61.91M, tiny relative to market cap now, not even 3.6% of it. Market cap grew far faster than spot did. Derivatives are entirely carrying this price.
The direction of open interest. If it starts falling, leverage is clearing and the base gets firmer. If it keeps climbing, the structure gets more stretched.
Where funding goes next. Further up and the cost for longs gets serious.
Whether taker flow holds. Buyers are the aggressive side right now at 1.12, but structures like this can flip fast.
Last week I talked about withdrawals to fresh wallets that were holding, a low L/S, and big accounts sitting on the opposite side. Since August 14, price has gone up 3x.
The picture looks very different now.
The numbers
>Price 0.64724, +76.20% in 24h
>Market cap 1.70B
>Open interest 157.32M, +70.9% in 24h
>Futures volume 738.76M
>Spot volume 61.91M
>Funding 0.0575%
>L/S ratio 0.44
>Top trader positions 1.56
>Taker buy/sell 1.12
The split is still there, but it is not the main story anymore
L/S at 0.44, top trader positions at 1.56. Last week's split is still present, even wider now. But it does not stand out the way it did, because price has already made its move.
Open interest grew even faster than price
Price is up 76% in 24h while open interest is up 70.9%. Almost lockstep. That tells you this rally is being carried by fresh leverage. Most of these positions were opened in the last day.
That is about as fragile a structure as it gets. Nobody has a cost basis, nobody's patience has been tested.
The liquidation number confirms it
3.04M liquidated in 24 hours. This move was not painless, both sides got cleared along the way.
Funding flipped positive and is climbing
0.0575, and the trend is clear: 0.04, 0.02, 0.02, 0.07, 0.06, 0.05. Longs are paying now.
That flips last week's picture. Back then shorts were crowded and paying. Now longs are not exactly crowded, but the size they are carrying has put them on the paying side.
Futures at 11.9x spot
Spot volume is 61.91M, tiny relative to market cap now, not even 3.6% of it. Market cap grew far faster than spot did. Derivatives are entirely carrying this price.
The direction of open interest. If it starts falling, leverage is clearing and the base gets firmer. If it keeps climbing, the structure gets more stretched.
Where funding goes next. Further up and the cost for longs gets serious.
Whether taker flow holds. Buyers are the aggressive side right now at 1.12, but structures like this can flip fast.