Housing starts collapsed 12.4% last month—more than double what was expected. Yet permits jumped 5%, suggesting builders still see demand ahead.

This gap matters. Permits lead, starts follow. When permits rise while starts fall, it often means builders are pausing to reassess costs, labor, or rates—not giving up.

The housing market doesn't move in straight lines. It stutters, recalibrates, then moves again. Watch what builders do with their wallets, not what the headlines scream.