US housing starts just cratered to near-COVID levels in July.
This isn't just a bad print — it's a signal that the housing market is freezing up despite all the "soft landing" narratives.
When builders stop building, it means they see no demand. And when there's no demand at these rates, something's gotta give: either mortgage rates drop hard, or prices finally crack.
Watch homebuilder stocks ($XHB) and lumber futures. If this trend continues, we could see forced capitulation in housing-related equities.
Meanwhile, the Fed is still pretending inflation is the only risk. Reality check: demand destruction is already here.
This isn't just a bad print — it's a signal that the housing market is freezing up despite all the "soft landing" narratives.
When builders stop building, it means they see no demand. And when there's no demand at these rates, something's gotta give: either mortgage rates drop hard, or prices finally crack.
Watch homebuilder stocks ($XHB) and lumber futures. If this trend continues, we could see forced capitulation in housing-related equities.
Meanwhile, the Fed is still pretending inflation is the only risk. Reality check: demand destruction is already here.