USD weakens as markets sharply reduce expectations for a September Fed rate hike

💵 The US dollar remained under pressure as the probability of a Fed rate hike in September fell to around 30–31%, down from roughly 50–55% last week, pushing the DXY toward its lowest level since early June.

📈 EUR/USD climbed to around 1.1595–1.1614, its highest level in about two months, while AUD and NZD reached roughly 0.7105 and 0.5910 respectively, both near 10-week highs.

📊 The move was driven mainly by softer-than-expected US economic data, highlighted by a 0.6% decline in July retail sales, alongside earlier signs of easing labor market and inflation pressures.

⚖️ The shift toward expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged is supporting non-USD currencies and risk assets. However, elevated oil prices and geopolitical risks could revive inflation concerns and limit further dollar weakness.

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