📉 September Fed hike odds are losing ground.

CME FedWatch now puts the odds of a 25bp hike next month at just 30.6%, down from around 40% before the latest data. The Fed holding at 3.50–3.75% remains the clear base case at 65%+.

The data is doing the talking: CPI cooled to 3.4%, July PPI was flat, retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, UMich consumer confidence dropped to 51, and jobless claims moved higher. Mortgage rates also broke their 5-week climb. 📊

Hawks are still pushing back, with Hamaker arguing that policy “isn’t restrictive enough,” but the bond market appears to be leaning the other way.

For risk assets, a dovish September could give BTC and gold more room to move independently. September 2024 and September 2025 cuts also followed softer summer conditions.

Next major watch: FOMC minutes.
30.6% → 25% could materially change the macro setup. 🧊

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