📊 Macro Overview
— Weekly Market Brief
The macro week delivered the relief rally stocks were waiting for, but crypto sat it out: July CPI came in at 3.4%, PPI printed flat, and September hike odds collapsed to ~40%, yet Bitcoin sold off to its weakest weekly close since early August, decoupling from an S&P 500 that kept making records.
• S&P 500 +0.4% | DXY ~99.5
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,798 on August 13 after CPI, with the Dow at 54,085 and the Nasdaq at 26,803, chips led. July CPI printed 3.4% YoY with core at 2.5% and a 1.5% energy drop from the Middle East ceasefire, while July PPI was flat MoM at 4.7% YoY, the lowest since March.
Rate-hike pricing for September fell to ~40%, but hawks pushed back, Cleveland's Hamaker insisted policy is not restrictive enough, and Barkin called a hike an open question.
The cracks are showing under the record equity prints: retail sales fell -0.6% MoM, Consumer Confidence dropped to 51 from 55.2, and jobless claims hit 209K, the highest since mid-July. The DXY slipped to 99.54, global bond yields sit at levels last seen in July 2008, and Goldman now expects the Fed on hold through year-end with core PCE at +0.23% MoM.
On regulation, the Clarity Act is effectively on ice: Galaxy cut passage odds to 10% as the September session is only 2-3 weeks long, and the Senate's final vote may come down to the stablecoin-yield fight between banks and crypto platforms.
The SEC canceled its Friday Regulation Crypto meeting at the last minute but is preparing an innovation exemption for 24/7 on-chain trading of tokenized stocks like Apple, Tesla and Nvidia, and is reviewing Cboe's bid to list 3x BTC/ETH ETFs.
For $BTC , a soft-inflation week that should have been bullish instead became the week ETF flows reversed and U.S. demand went quiet, the clearest decoupling from equities since the recovery began.
— Weekly Market Brief
The macro week delivered the relief rally stocks were waiting for, but crypto sat it out: July CPI came in at 3.4%, PPI printed flat, and September hike odds collapsed to ~40%, yet Bitcoin sold off to its weakest weekly close since early August, decoupling from an S&P 500 that kept making records.
• S&P 500 +0.4% | DXY ~99.5
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,798 on August 13 after CPI, with the Dow at 54,085 and the Nasdaq at 26,803, chips led. July CPI printed 3.4% YoY with core at 2.5% and a 1.5% energy drop from the Middle East ceasefire, while July PPI was flat MoM at 4.7% YoY, the lowest since March.
Rate-hike pricing for September fell to ~40%, but hawks pushed back, Cleveland's Hamaker insisted policy is not restrictive enough, and Barkin called a hike an open question.
The cracks are showing under the record equity prints: retail sales fell -0.6% MoM, Consumer Confidence dropped to 51 from 55.2, and jobless claims hit 209K, the highest since mid-July. The DXY slipped to 99.54, global bond yields sit at levels last seen in July 2008, and Goldman now expects the Fed on hold through year-end with core PCE at +0.23% MoM.
On regulation, the Clarity Act is effectively on ice: Galaxy cut passage odds to 10% as the September session is only 2-3 weeks long, and the Senate's final vote may come down to the stablecoin-yield fight between banks and crypto platforms.
The SEC canceled its Friday Regulation Crypto meeting at the last minute but is preparing an innovation exemption for 24/7 on-chain trading of tokenized stocks like Apple, Tesla and Nvidia, and is reviewing Cboe's bid to list 3x BTC/ETH ETFs.
For $BTC , a soft-inflation week that should have been bullish instead became the week ETF flows reversed and U.S. demand went quiet, the clearest decoupling from equities since the recovery began.