$BTC Bitcoin Has Closed Below A Major Long-Term Trend Indicator Again.
In 2026, BTC Has Already Traded Below Its 200-Week MA, With The Level Around $61.8K In June.
The 2022 Analogy Is Interesting — But The Market Spent Months Below The 200WMA Before The Cycle Bottom Arrived.
One Current Bear-Case Scenario Puts A Potential Cycle Bottom Around $40K–$46K Later In 2026.
A $45K October Bottom Is Therefore A Scenario, Not A Confirmed Roadmap.
The 200WMA Reaction May Matter More Than The Calendar Date.
In 2026, BTC Has Already Traded Below Its 200-Week MA, With The Level Around $61.8K In June.
The 2022 Analogy Is Interesting — But The Market Spent Months Below The 200WMA Before The Cycle Bottom Arrived.
One Current Bear-Case Scenario Puts A Potential Cycle Bottom Around $40K–$46K Later In 2026.
A $45K October Bottom Is Therefore A Scenario, Not A Confirmed Roadmap.
The 200WMA Reaction May Matter More Than The Calendar Date.