We're 74 months into this expansion. That's already longer than the post-1949 average of 67 months.
For context: the longest run was 128 months (2009-2020), and the shortest was just 12 months (1980-1981).
Expansions don't die of old age. They end when something breaks — policy mistakes, credit bubbles, external shocks. Age alone tells you nothing about when the next recession hits.
What matters more: valuations, leverage, labor markets, and whether the Fed has room to respond when things wobble. Right now, we're in the zone where people start getting nervous just because the calendar says so.
Don't confuse duration with fragility. Stay focused on fundamentals, not the retirement party invitations.
For context: the longest run was 128 months (2009-2020), and the shortest was just 12 months (1980-1981).
Expansions don't die of old age. They end when something breaks — policy mistakes, credit bubbles, external shocks. Age alone tells you nothing about when the next recession hits.
What matters more: valuations, leverage, labor markets, and whether the Fed has room to respond when things wobble. Right now, we're in the zone where people start getting nervous just because the calendar says so.
Don't confuse duration with fragility. Stay focused on fundamentals, not the retirement party invitations.