Oil's getting crushed and dragging rates lower across the board. But zoom out — the curve's still steepening.
This matters because a steeper curve usually signals growth expectations picking up (or at least inflation fears cooling at the long end). Oil weakness helps the inflation story, gives the Fed breathing room.
But here's the thing: if oil's falling because demand's cracking, that steepening might not be the bullish signal everyone wants. Context matters. Watch what's driving the move, not just the move itself.
This matters because a steeper curve usually signals growth expectations picking up (or at least inflation fears cooling at the long end). Oil weakness helps the inflation story, gives the Fed breathing room.
But here's the thing: if oil's falling because demand's cracking, that steepening might not be the bullish signal everyone wants. Context matters. Watch what's driving the move, not just the move itself.