#CrudeBrieflyFallsBelow$90

Brent plunged to $84.95 intraday — first sub-$90 print since the war premium built. Now back at ~$91. WTI hit $82, now ~$84.50.

The trigger: US paused airstrikes on Iran, Trump confirmed "positive negotiations." Market ripped out the geopolitical premium fast.

The catch: Houthis hit Yanbu. Tanker traffic through Hormuz is still down 40%. The ceasefire is fragile — oil is still up 25%+ MoM .

Polymarket: WTI July closes below $90 surged to 94% at peak, but "below $85" collapsed from 82% to 49% — market sees a floor.

Fed decision Wednesday. Oil crash gives doves ammo, but CPI data the Fed is looking at predates the spike. Rate hike odds still ~36%.

The key question: ceasefire holds = Brent settles $80-90. Talks break down = $100 is one Houthi strike away.

Not financial advice.
$XAU $XAG $CL #OilDropsAbout6% #BrentCrudeFallsAbout6% #WTICrudeFuturesFall8% #USStorageStocksExtendLosses