The signal

- The Puell Multiple's low for this cycle is 0.53, its highest cycle bottom on record; today it sits at 0.84. Daily readings are noisy, so what matters is how low it falls, not today's print.

- It compares what miners earn today from newly created bitcoin against their 365-day average. A low reading means miner income is well below normal.

The history

- Each cycle's low has landed higher: near 0.28 in December 2018, 0.35 in July 2022, 0.49 in September 2024, and 0.53 in June 2026 (this cycle is still open, so provisional).

- A low Puell Multiple is often called a bottom signal, but the honest version is narrower. Since 2013, readings below 0.65 brought a median 180-day gain near +55%, about twice a random entry (+28%), with drawdowns capped around 30-40% versus the 60-70% of deep bears.

- The edge is the size of the move, not the odds. Only 57-67% of those episodes ended higher after 180 days, barely above Bitcoin's 63% baseline. July 2022 shows the signal can still fail.

What it means

- These bottoms are getting shallower, and the four-year supply cut (the halving) is not the cause: the metric scales both sides of its ratio, so cutting new supply cancels out. The real driver: price falls less each cycle (down 83% in 2018, 77% in 2022, less since), so miner income never sinks as deep.

- The 2024 and 2026 lows came with price still high, so they are Puell lows, not price bottoms. Waiting for the classic sub-0.5 zone, where miners sell at a loss, may mean waiting for a level that no longer prints. Today reads as easing miner pressure, not a generational low. It turns decisive only if it holds beneath recent lows for weeks.

Written by thechessONCHAIN