World Bank notes China's growth holding up through H1 2026 — high-tech capex and exports doing the heavy lifting, policy support cushioning energy shocks. But domestic demand still soft in Q2.
Classic playbook: when consumers won't spend, lean on industrial policy and external markets. Works until it doesn't. The real question isn't resilience today — it's whether this mix is sustainable when the rest of the world slows or when export markets push back.
China's been running this strategy for years. High-tech investment sounds great on paper, but returns matter. If you're building capacity faster than demand justifies, you're just pulling forward growth and storing up overcapacity problems.
Domestic demand weakness in Q2 is the tell. That's where the actual economy lives for most people. Export-led resilience is a headline number, not a foundation.
Classic playbook: when consumers won't spend, lean on industrial policy and external markets. Works until it doesn't. The real question isn't resilience today — it's whether this mix is sustainable when the rest of the world slows or when export markets push back.
China's been running this strategy for years. High-tech investment sounds great on paper, but returns matter. If you're building capacity faster than demand justifies, you're just pulling forward growth and storing up overcapacity problems.
Domestic demand weakness in Q2 is the tell. That's where the actual economy lives for most people. Export-led resilience is a headline number, not a foundation.