$BTC
If 60K is the bottom, this is the price where the next Bitcoin top likely sits.
Over the last four cycles, BTC’s bottom‑to‑top multiple has been compressing in a very clean way. Every new cycle gives you roughly 40-50% of the previous cycle’s upside off the low.
If the last cycle did about 7-8x off the bottom, the next one statistically lives in a 3-4x cyclic multiple.
Mathematically, the predictive model is:
Next‑cycle top ≈ this cycle bottom × (Previous multiple × k)
Where:
“Previous multiple” ≈ 7-8x from the 2022 lows to the October 2025 top.
K ≈ 0.4-0.5, the historical “diminishing factor” pulled from prior cycles.
So if 60K is the bottom, the green band on this model is the base case (a “normal” cycle under diminishing returns) being around ~190–200K.
The yellow band is the euphoric extension of that same cycle, pushing toward ~240K, and anything above that drifts into true supercycle territory.
If 50K is the bottom instead, the green band compresses down toward ~160K, and the yellow euphoric path sits closer to ~200K.
If the cycle structure hasn’t broken, this is the range where the next bull market logically finishes in.
BTCUSDT
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