usdataimpact

According to Odaily, market reports indicate that the United States recorded a trade deficit of $78.8 billion in July. This figure slightly exceeded the expected deficit of $79.0 billion. The previous value was revised from $73.1 billion to $73.0 billion.The July trade deficit marks the largest since June 2022, highlighting ongoing economic challenges. The data reflects the balance between the country's imports and exports, with a higher deficit indicating that the value of imports continues to surpass that of exports. This trend can have significant implications for the overall economic health and policy decisions.The trade deficit is a critical economic indicator, often influencing currency values, trade policies, and international relations. Analysts and policymakers closely monitor these figures to assess economic performance and make informed decisions. The latest data underscores the importance of addressing trade imbalances to foster a more stable economic environment.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI just printed 52.6, finally breaking back above the 50 threshold for the first time since January 2025.
On the surface, this is being framed as a clean bullish signal for the economy and by extension, for risk assets. But this is exactly where most interpretations start to drift off course.
A strong ISM reading does not automatically mean bullish liquidity conditions. Historically, when ISM is expanding, the Federal Reserve feels less pressure to cut rates, not more.
In many cases, sustained ISM expansion has coincided with pauses or even tightening.
This is why treating ISM as a direct, 1:1 indicator for Bitcoin price is a mistake. ISM is far more useful as a signal for future Fed behavior than for immediate BTC direction.
If you look at history objectively, the relationship is nuanced. In 2014–2015 and again in 2018–2019, ISM held comfortably in the 52–59 range, yet Bitcoin entered deep bear markets.
Conversely, between 2023 and 2025, ISM stayed below 50 for nearly two years a prolonged contraction while $BTC rallied more than 700%. That alone should tell you that cherry-picking ISM levels without context leads to the wrong conclusions.
What actually matters is not whether ISM is above or below 50 in isolation, but the transition the shift from contraction into expansion. That transition is where regimes change, policy pivots form, and risk assets begin to behave very differently.
The real question isn’t “ISM is strong, so Bitcoin up or down?”
The real question is: why did Bitcoin make new highs during economic contraction for the first time in its history?

My view and I fully accept it could be wrong is that this cycle is structurally different due to institutional and government adoption.
That adoption acted as a support pillar that allowed Bitcoin to push to new highs even while liquidity conditions were objectively poor.
It also explains why this has been the weakest BTC bull cycle on record in terms of breadth, and why almost nothing else in crypto made new highs. This wasn’t a failure of crypto it was a reflection of a hostile macro and liquidity backdrop.
In that framework, what we’ve experienced so far looks less like a full bull market and more like a mid-cycle top driven by adoption, not by expansionary liquidity.
Without that adoption bid, Bitcoin likely wouldn’t have made new highs at all during contraction. That disconnect is what has confused so many participants, because we’ve been applying old-cycle playbooks to a market that no longer operates under the same rules.
Now comes the important part. As liquidity slowly rebuilds and the economy genuinely transitions from contraction into expansion, the conditions that were missing finally begin to align.
If this thesis is correct, the next phase is not a continuation of what we’ve already seen it’s the start of the true bull phase of the cycle.
The takeaway is simple: ISM isn’t the signal. The shift in regime is. And markets don’t reward those who react to headlines they reward those who understand process.
Curious how others are interpreting this ISM transition and its implications for $BTC are you viewing this as the end of a cycle, or the setup for what comes next?

#BTC #USDataImpact #btc70k

U.S
DATA REPORT
#USDataImpact #ADP #USGovernment