polymarket
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محفظة رقمية جديدة تراهن بكل ثقلها على إغلاق الحكومة الأمريكية السبت.
هل هي مجرد مغامرة أم معلومة من الداخل؟
التوقيت يثير الكثير من التساؤلات في الأوساط المالية.
قد يكون هذا الشخص يمتلك رؤية لا نراها نحن أو ربما يتبع استراتيجية مخاطرة عالية جداً.
ما رأيكم في هذه الخطوة؟
$POL
#polymarket #elaouzi
هل هي مجرد مغامرة أم معلومة من الداخل؟
التوقيت يثير الكثير من التساؤلات في الأوساط المالية.
قد يكون هذا الشخص يمتلك رؤية لا نراها نحن أو ربما يتبع استراتيجية مخاطرة عالية جداً.
ما رأيكم في هذه الخطوة؟
$POL
#polymarket #elaouzi
КЕВИН УОРШ — НОВЫЙ ХОЗЯИН ФРС? ВЕРОЯТНОСТЬ 94%!😱😱😱😱🇺🇲🇺🇲
Рынки прогнозов в шоке! Шансы Кевина Уорша на пост главы ФРС взлетели на Polymarket до невероятных 94% всего за несколько часов.
Бывший фаворит Рик Ридер (BlackRock) потерпел крах — его шансы рухнули до 3%.
Трамп намекнул, что выберет «знакомое лицо», и Уорш идеально подходит под это описание. Готовьтесь к смене эпох в ФРС!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#KevinWarsh #FedChair #Polymarket
Рынки прогнозов в шоке! Шансы Кевина Уорша на пост главы ФРС взлетели на Polymarket до невероятных 94% всего за несколько часов.
Бывший фаворит Рик Ридер (BlackRock) потерпел крах — его шансы рухнули до 3%.
Трамп намекнул, что выберет «знакомое лицо», и Уорш идеально подходит под это описание. Готовьтесь к смене эпох в ФРС!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#KevinWarsh #FedChair #Polymarket
This Is Why Prediction Markets Are Taking Over
In this clip, the CEO of Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, talks about Polymarket's potential after the 2024 U.S.
1,169
election and why the platform could reshape how the world views forecasting and uncertainty. He explains that the enormous trading volume around election
*Eloutcomes showed how much real-world information UA 2o K can be aggregated through a prediction market -ECTION where prices reflect collective expectations rather than just opinion polls - and that this model could
#Polymatket #polymarket #NewsAboutCrypto
In this clip, the CEO of Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, talks about Polymarket's potential after the 2024 U.S.
1,169
election and why the platform could reshape how the world views forecasting and uncertainty. He explains that the enormous trading volume around election
*Eloutcomes showed how much real-world information UA 2o K can be aggregated through a prediction market -ECTION where prices reflect collective expectations rather than just opinion polls - and that this model could
#Polymatket #polymarket #NewsAboutCrypto
特朗普周四在白宫会见Kevin Warsh，市场共识押注他将获今晚美联储主席提名
据市场消息，特朗普于周四在白宫会见了前美联储前理事凯文.沃什（Kevin Warsh），而 Warsh 目前也是下任美联储主席的热门人选。
紧接着，特朗普宣布将于北京时间今晚公布美联储主席最终人选后，预测市场针对各候选人的被提名的概率也迎来终极审判。
据Polymarket最新数据显示，前美联储理事 Kevin Warsh 获提名的市场报价高达96美分，大幅领先贝莱德高管 Rick Rieder 和现任理事Christopher Waller。
我们知道，Polymarket上凝结了全球交易者用真金白银投下的“信任票”，它整合了所有公开信息、内幕传闻乃至政治直觉，因此预测市场往往比传统民调或专家的分析更能反映事态的真实走向。
而当前预测市场近乎一边倒地押注Warsh，强烈预示着这场持续数月的猜测游戏已接近终点，他也极有可能成为特朗普的最终选择。
若预测市场共识的押注结果成为现实，这位曾批评量化宽松、立场偏鹰派的前理事将执掌美联储，也为美国货币政策路径注入重大不确定性。
#KevinWarsh #Polymarket
据市场消息，特朗普于周四在白宫会见了前美联储前理事凯文.沃什（Kevin Warsh），而 Warsh 目前也是下任美联储主席的热门人选。
紧接着，特朗普宣布将于北京时间今晚公布美联储主席最终人选后，预测市场针对各候选人的被提名的概率也迎来终极审判。
据Polymarket最新数据显示，前美联储理事 Kevin Warsh 获提名的市场报价高达96美分，大幅领先贝莱德高管 Rick Rieder 和现任理事Christopher Waller。
我们知道，Polymarket上凝结了全球交易者用真金白银投下的“信任票”，它整合了所有公开信息、内幕传闻乃至政治直觉，因此预测市场往往比传统民调或专家的分析更能反映事态的真实走向。
而当前预测市场近乎一边倒地押注Warsh，强烈预示着这场持续数月的猜测游戏已接近终点，他也极有可能成为特朗普的最终选择。
若预测市场共识的押注结果成为现实，这位曾批评量化宽松、立场偏鹰派的前理事将执掌美联储，也为美国货币政策路径注入重大不确定性。
#KevinWarsh #Polymarket
LIVE ALERT: Trump's Fed Pick Looms – Polymarket Odds Skyrocket for Kevin Warsh! 🚨
The crypto world is on a knife's edge. President Trump's confirmed announcement for the next Federal Reserve Chair is just hours away (or moments, depending on leaks!), and Polymarket is flashing red-hot odds for Kevin Warsh. After Bitcoin's brutal dip on the initial news, every trader is glued to their screens.
Polymarket: The "Wisdom of the Crowds" in Real-Time
Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market, is currently pricing in a near-certainty for Warsh. This platform, known for its rapid reflection of market sentiment and insider information, is now our leading indicator.
LIVE Polymarket Odds
Kevin Warsh: 97% (Up from 95% an hour ago)Lael Brainard: 2%Other Candidate: 1%
This dramatic surge for Warsh indicates that smart money, or potentially even insider leaks, are consolidating around him as the chosen successor to Jerome Powell.
What a "Warsh Fed" Means for Crypto & The Market:
The market's initial fear isn't unfounded. Here's why Warsh at the helm could be a game-changer:
Monetary Tightening Bias: Warsh is a known advocate for fiscal discipline and a more restrictive monetary policy. This contrasts sharply with the "cheap money" narrative that fueled much of the 2021-2025 bull run. Higher interest rates generally dampen speculative assets like Bitcoin.Regulatory Scrutiny: With a background that includes working with the Treasury Department on financial stability, Warsh could bring increased regulatory scrutiny to the crypto space, potentially impacting stablecoin legislation (like the GENIUS Act) and institutional adoption timelines.Dollar Strength: A hawkish Fed often leads to a stronger U.S. Dollar. A surging DXY index typically acts as a headwind for Bitcoin, which often trades inversely to the dollar.
The "Trump Paradox" & Your Trading Strategy:
President Trump's public statements have always leaned towards lower rates and a weaker dollar to boost exports. However, his potential selection of Warsh creates a fascinating paradox: a president desiring dovish outcomes, appointing a potentially hawkish chairman.
Your Move Now:
Caution is Key: Avoid making large directional bets until the official announcement. The market remains highly sensitive.Watch for Volatility: Even if Warsh is confirmed, expect immediate, sharp volatility as algos react and traders digest the news. Long liquidations could trigger further cascades.Set Alerts: Keep notifications on for major news outlets and official White House announcements. The leak might come via a mainstream channel before an official press conference.
This isn't just about a name; it's about the future of monetary policy and its direct impact on every asset, especially the volatile world of crypto. Stay vigilant.
#KevinWarsh #Polymarket #bitcoin #WhoIsNextFedChair #cryptooinsigts
$ETH
$RIVER
$STRAX
Polymarket: The "Wisdom of the Crowds" in Real-Time
Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market, is currently pricing in a near-certainty for Warsh. This platform, known for its rapid reflection of market sentiment and insider information, is now our leading indicator.
LIVE Polymarket Odds
Kevin Warsh: 97% (Up from 95% an hour ago)Lael Brainard: 2%Other Candidate: 1%
This dramatic surge for Warsh indicates that smart money, or potentially even insider leaks, are consolidating around him as the chosen successor to Jerome Powell.
What a "Warsh Fed" Means for Crypto & The Market:
The market's initial fear isn't unfounded. Here's why Warsh at the helm could be a game-changer:
Monetary Tightening Bias: Warsh is a known advocate for fiscal discipline and a more restrictive monetary policy. This contrasts sharply with the "cheap money" narrative that fueled much of the 2021-2025 bull run. Higher interest rates generally dampen speculative assets like Bitcoin.Regulatory Scrutiny: With a background that includes working with the Treasury Department on financial stability, Warsh could bring increased regulatory scrutiny to the crypto space, potentially impacting stablecoin legislation (like the GENIUS Act) and institutional adoption timelines.Dollar Strength: A hawkish Fed often leads to a stronger U.S. Dollar. A surging DXY index typically acts as a headwind for Bitcoin, which often trades inversely to the dollar.
The "Trump Paradox" & Your Trading Strategy:
President Trump's public statements have always leaned towards lower rates and a weaker dollar to boost exports. However, his potential selection of Warsh creates a fascinating paradox: a president desiring dovish outcomes, appointing a potentially hawkish chairman.
Your Move Now:
Caution is Key: Avoid making large directional bets until the official announcement. The market remains highly sensitive.Watch for Volatility: Even if Warsh is confirmed, expect immediate, sharp volatility as algos react and traders digest the news. Long liquidations could trigger further cascades.Set Alerts: Keep notifications on for major news outlets and official White House announcements. The leak might come via a mainstream channel before an official press conference.
This isn't just about a name; it's about the future of monetary policy and its direct impact on every asset, especially the volatile world of crypto. Stay vigilant.
#KevinWarsh #Polymarket #bitcoin #WhoIsNextFedChair #cryptooinsigts
$ETH
$RIVER
$STRAX
#Polymarket is quietly becoming one of the most important platforms in Web3.
This is not hype. The data backs it.
Polymarket is the leading decentralized prediction market today. It dominates real time narratives across crypto Twitter, Discord, and on chain traders.
Why traders care.
• 250k to 500k monthly active traders.
• Over 17 million monthly website visits.
• 2025 projected trading volume around 18 billion dollars.
That level of activity puts Polymarket far ahead of older prediction market models.
How onboarding works.
You do not need KYC.
You connect Phantom or MetaMask.
You trade using major crypto assets.
You are live in minutes.
This is decentralization done right. Low friction. Fast execution. No legacy barriers.
What makes Polymarket different.
You are not guessing prices. You are trading outcomes.
Politics. AI. Crypto events. Sports. Culture.
If a narrative matters, it trades on Polymarket first.
Skilled traders win because information matters more than leverage.
Competitive landscape.
Compared to legacy and emerging players.
• Augur REP.
• Gnosis GNO.
• Azuro AZUR.
• Drift DRIFT.
Polymarket leads on liquidity, volume, and mindshare.
Others exist. None match the current traction.
The real catalyst.
The upcoming POLY token.
Early users are positioning for potential rewards.
An airdrop narrative is already forming.
This mirrors early OpenSea, MetaMask, and Base era setups.
If POLY launches with utility tied to volume, governance, or rewards, early participation matters.
TA perspective.
User growth is parabolic.
Volume follows attention.
Attention follows narratives.
Polymarket sits at the center of all three.
If you trade narratives, you trade where narratives are born.
Right now, that place is Polymarket.
This is not hype. The data backs it.
Polymarket is the leading decentralized prediction market today. It dominates real time narratives across crypto Twitter, Discord, and on chain traders.
Why traders care.
• 250k to 500k monthly active traders.
• Over 17 million monthly website visits.
• 2025 projected trading volume around 18 billion dollars.
That level of activity puts Polymarket far ahead of older prediction market models.
How onboarding works.
You do not need KYC.
You connect Phantom or MetaMask.
You trade using major crypto assets.
You are live in minutes.
This is decentralization done right. Low friction. Fast execution. No legacy barriers.
What makes Polymarket different.
You are not guessing prices. You are trading outcomes.
Politics. AI. Crypto events. Sports. Culture.
If a narrative matters, it trades on Polymarket first.
Skilled traders win because information matters more than leverage.
Competitive landscape.
Compared to legacy and emerging players.
• Augur REP.
• Gnosis GNO.
• Azuro AZUR.
• Drift DRIFT.
Polymarket leads on liquidity, volume, and mindshare.
Others exist. None match the current traction.
The real catalyst.
The upcoming POLY token.
Early users are positioning for potential rewards.
An airdrop narrative is already forming.
This mirrors early OpenSea, MetaMask, and Base era setups.
If POLY launches with utility tied to volume, governance, or rewards, early participation matters.
TA perspective.
User growth is parabolic.
Volume follows attention.
Attention follows narratives.
Polymarket sits at the center of all three.
If you trade narratives, you trade where narratives are born.
Right now, that place is Polymarket.
US government shutdown Saturday? YES or NO game ! An HOUR Can Change a Narrative.
Four days ago, “mmmcleve” sounded calm. Almost boringly confident. The bet was clear: no U.S. government shutdown this Saturday. sitting there, letting time do its thing.
And then… something shifted.
About an hour ago, he did a clean flip......straight back in on the opposite side. Now the bet says the SHUTDOWN IS COMING.
That’s the part that makes you pause. Not the trade itself, but the timing. Four days of conviction undone in half an hour. Maybe new information hit. But traders don’t reverse like that unless something breaks in their head .. or clicks.
Address of this trader or we say gambler:
0x8f70116b4b37cd7fd0f4bb046a2a69b7ebbdbf5a
#polymarket
Four days ago, “mmmcleve” sounded calm. Almost boringly confident. The bet was clear: no U.S. government shutdown this Saturday. sitting there, letting time do its thing.
And then… something shifted.
About an hour ago, he did a clean flip......straight back in on the opposite side. Now the bet says the SHUTDOWN IS COMING.
That’s the part that makes you pause. Not the trade itself, but the timing. Four days of conviction undone in half an hour. Maybe new information hit. But traders don’t reverse like that unless something breaks in their head .. or clicks.
Address of this trader or we say gambler:
0x8f70116b4b37cd7fd0f4bb046a2a69b7ebbdbf5a
#polymarket
Polymarket has quietly become the place where narratives are priced before they trend.
While most platforms react to headlines, Polymarket reflects them in real time. Politics, macro, AI, sports, culture, elections, if people care about it, there is already a market trading the outcome.
That dominance is showing up everywhere. Strong presence across X, Discord, and crypto media, with serious traders using it as an information layer rather than just a betting app.
The scale is real.
250K to 500K monthly active traders.
17M plus monthly website visits.
A projected $18B in trading volume for 2025.
This is not a niche experiment anymore.
What makes Polymarket work is how frictionless it feels. No KYC. Connect Phantom or MetaMask. Trade using familiar crypto rails. Markets resolve transparently. You interact with decentralization without feeling the complexity, which is exactly how consumer Web3 should look.
For traders, this is next generation information arbitrage. Markets move on asymmetric information, and Polymarket lets users monetize what they already know. Geopolitics, economics, AI adoption, sports analytics, cultural trends, instead of waiting for charts to react, you position before consensus forms.
That is why Polymarket keeps attracting serious users, not tourists.
And then there is the catalyst everyone is watching 👀
The upcoming POLY token.
Early participation, consistent trading, and liquidity activity are widely expected to matter. Similar to past launches from OpenSea, MetaMask, and Base aligned ecosystems, the direction is clear, users first.
If narratives are the new alpha, Polymarket is where they form.
And being early on platforms like this has historically paid off !!
$BTC
$SOL $
$XRP
#Polymarket #Web3 #USIranStandoff #Write2Earn
While most platforms react to headlines, Polymarket reflects them in real time. Politics, macro, AI, sports, culture, elections, if people care about it, there is already a market trading the outcome.
That dominance is showing up everywhere. Strong presence across X, Discord, and crypto media, with serious traders using it as an information layer rather than just a betting app.
The scale is real.
250K to 500K monthly active traders.
17M plus monthly website visits.
A projected $18B in trading volume for 2025.
This is not a niche experiment anymore.
What makes Polymarket work is how frictionless it feels. No KYC. Connect Phantom or MetaMask. Trade using familiar crypto rails. Markets resolve transparently. You interact with decentralization without feeling the complexity, which is exactly how consumer Web3 should look.
For traders, this is next generation information arbitrage. Markets move on asymmetric information, and Polymarket lets users monetize what they already know. Geopolitics, economics, AI adoption, sports analytics, cultural trends, instead of waiting for charts to react, you position before consensus forms.
That is why Polymarket keeps attracting serious users, not tourists.
And then there is the catalyst everyone is watching 👀
The upcoming POLY token.
Early participation, consistent trading, and liquidity activity are widely expected to matter. Similar to past launches from OpenSea, MetaMask, and Base aligned ecosystems, the direction is clear, users first.
If narratives are the new alpha, Polymarket is where they form.
And being early on platforms like this has historically paid off !!
$BTC
$SOL $
$XRP
#Polymarket #Web3 #USIranStandoff #Write2Earn
¡Buenos días! ☕📰 Estas son las noticias que debes saber el viernes 30 de enero:
🔹Binance convertirá las reservas de stablecoins de USD 1B de su fondo SAFU en BTC durante los próximos 30 días, y si $BTC cae por debajo de 80K, respondrá a USD 1B.
🔹El Comité de Agricultura del Senado aprobó proyecto de Ley Bitcoin con republicanos a favor, demócratas en contra, otorgando autoridad a CFTC sobre activos digitales considerados commodities.
🔹El nuevo estándar ERC-8004 ya se encuentra activo en la red Ethereum y permite la creación de agentes IA operativos.
🔹Se dispara el índice #VIX , el indicador que mide la expectativa de volatilidad de las acciones estadounidenses anticipa movimientos convulsos.
🔹Hoy se anunciará el nuevo presidente de la #FED . En #Polymarket figura el especialista en política monetaria Kevin Warsh. Este contrato de Polymarket tiene un volumen superior a los 287,5 millones de dólares.
🔹Binance convertirá las reservas de stablecoins de USD 1B de su fondo SAFU en BTC durante los próximos 30 días, y si $BTC cae por debajo de 80K, respondrá a USD 1B.
🔹El Comité de Agricultura del Senado aprobó proyecto de Ley Bitcoin con republicanos a favor, demócratas en contra, otorgando autoridad a CFTC sobre activos digitales considerados commodities.
🔹El nuevo estándar ERC-8004 ya se encuentra activo en la red Ethereum y permite la creación de agentes IA operativos.
🔹Se dispara el índice #VIX , el indicador que mide la expectativa de volatilidad de las acciones estadounidenses anticipa movimientos convulsos.
🔹Hoy se anunciará el nuevo presidente de la #FED . En #Polymarket figura el especialista en política monetaria Kevin Warsh. Este contrato de Polymarket tiene un volumen superior a los 287,5 millones de dólares.
COINRANK EVENING UPDATE
Elon Musk is reportedly planning to advance space computing power.
#Bitcoin 's market capitalization has fallen out of the top 10 global assets, currently ranking 12th.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has added "R-Coin Wallet/R-Wallet/Jumanjin" to its list of suspicious virtual asset trading platforms.
US Senate funding is stalled; #Polymarket predicts the probability of a US government shutdown on Saturday has risen to 66%.
Bitcoin may set a record for its longest monthly losing streak since 2018.
#CoinRank #GN
#Bitcoin 's market capitalization has fallen out of the top 10 global assets, currently ranking 12th.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has added "R-Coin Wallet/R-Wallet/Jumanjin" to its list of suspicious virtual asset trading platforms.
US Senate funding is stalled; #Polymarket predicts the probability of a US government shutdown on Saturday has risen to 66%.
Bitcoin may set a record for its longest monthly losing streak since 2018.
#CoinRank #GN
«Новый дофамин». Как рынки прогнозов заменили биржи криптотрейдерам
С октябрьских максимумов 2025 года крипторынок потерял почти треть капитализации. Миллионы инвесторов остались с обесценившимися монетами, а внимание аудитории быстро сместилось в сторону обновляющих рекорды драгоценных металлов. Может показаться, что спекулятивная энергия крипторынка иссякла, но речь скорее о перераспределении риска: капитал перетекает в другие форматы спекуляций, включая рынки прогнозов (prediction markets).
«Криптой так легко манипулировать. Ликвидность могут вывести в любой момент, махинации на каждом шагу. Трейдеры только и думают, как перехитрить друг друга. Все уже устали от этих игр», — рассуждает для Bloomberg основатель платформы по исследованиям рынков прогнозов HumanPlane Никшеп Сараванан.
В последние месяцы рынки прогнозов стали чуть ли не единственным сектором криптоэкономики, показавшим положительную динамику. Согласно Dune на конец января, совокупный еженедельный номинальный объем торгов на таких платформах превысил $6,1 млрд. Притом что еще в августе показатель находился ниже $400 млн. А в октябре объемы составляли чуть выше $2 млрд.
Лидерами рынка по объемам являются Kalshi, Opinion и Polymarket — на их долю приходится более 95% всего рынка.
В октябре крипторынок зафиксировал рекордные значения капитализации около $4,3 трлн, а биткоин достиг максимальных $126,2 тыс. С тех пор капитализация рынка опустилась ниже $3 трлн, потеряв более 30%, а цена биткоина снизилась к значениям чуть выше $88 тыс.
«Дофаминовая петля» предсказаний
В некоторых секторах криптоэкономики последние три месяца прошедшего года оказались катастрофичными. Как отметили аналитики CoinGecko, рыночная турбулентность того периода привела к тому, что 7,7 млн токенов перестали проявлять торговую активность, особенно сильный удар пришелся по сектору мемкоинов.
Но крипторынок всегда пытается найти новый тренд, или «игру», для спекуляций. Отраслевые эксперты периодически обращают внимание, что отсутствие азарта у криптотрейдеров может привести к общему упадку на рынке. В конце 2024 года, незадолго до выборов президента США, глава аналитической платформы CryptoQuant Ки Юн Джу указал, что без «создания новой игры, которая будет стимулировать дофамин трейдеров, криптоиндустрию ждет длительный период стагнации».
Текущая динамика роста объемов на рынках предсказаний как раз может стать такой «игрой» для криптотрейдеров, предлагая ту же самую спекулятивную составляющую и острые ощущения в виде бинарных ставок «да» или «нет» на реальные события, быстрые результаты, отмечают журналисты Bloomberg. Нет никаких «дорожных карт», пишет издание, имея в виду, что инвесторам не нужно ждать месяцы, пока команда разработчиков выполнит свои планы по развитию продукта, — только «дофаминовая петля» с простым вариантом наступления событий.
Несмотря на рост объемов и интереса, такие рынки все также приносят прибыль лишь небольшой части инвесторов. Согласно данным исследовательской компании defioasis.eth, порядка 70% пользовательских кошельков, использующих рынки предсказаний, зафиксировали убытки.
Рост интереса
Интерес к сектору также подтверждается данными о загрузках приложений. В то время как показатель для криптовалютных бирж резко упал в прошлом году, рынки прогнозов двигались в противоположном направлении.
Количество установок Polymarket выросло с 30 тыс. в январе до более чем 400 тыс. к декабрю, по данным аналитической компании Sensor Tower. Количество установок Kalshi за тот же период увеличилось с 80 тыс. до 1,3 млн. У Binance, крупнейшей в мире криптовалютной биржи, количество загрузок сократилось более чем вдвое.
Крупные игроки на крипторынке уже осваивают новый возможный тренд. Как отметил в начале января, согласно Bloomberg, глава Robinhood Влад Тенев, «мы находимся в самом начале суперцикла рынка прогнозов».
Например, в ноябре прошлого года Google стал показывать данные Polymarket и Kalshi в поиске и на обновленной платформе Google Finance, а Yahoo Finance анонсировал отображение прогнозов по ключевым экономическим и политическим событиям.
Интерес проявляют и биржевые гиганты. В октябре Intercontinental Exchange (владелец NYSE) провела раунд финансирования Polymarket на $2 млрд. Крупнейшая американская криптобиржа Coinbase добавила функционал рынков предсказаний через партнерство с Kalshi, а Crypto.com развивает собственное направление.
#polymarket #Bitcoin #CryptoMarketAnalysis
«Криптой так легко манипулировать. Ликвидность могут вывести в любой момент, махинации на каждом шагу. Трейдеры только и думают, как перехитрить друг друга. Все уже устали от этих игр», — рассуждает для Bloomberg основатель платформы по исследованиям рынков прогнозов HumanPlane Никшеп Сараванан.
В последние месяцы рынки прогнозов стали чуть ли не единственным сектором криптоэкономики, показавшим положительную динамику. Согласно Dune на конец января, совокупный еженедельный номинальный объем торгов на таких платформах превысил $6,1 млрд. Притом что еще в августе показатель находился ниже $400 млн. А в октябре объемы составляли чуть выше $2 млрд.
Лидерами рынка по объемам являются Kalshi, Opinion и Polymarket — на их долю приходится более 95% всего рынка.
В октябре крипторынок зафиксировал рекордные значения капитализации около $4,3 трлн, а биткоин достиг максимальных $126,2 тыс. С тех пор капитализация рынка опустилась ниже $3 трлн, потеряв более 30%, а цена биткоина снизилась к значениям чуть выше $88 тыс.
«Дофаминовая петля» предсказаний
В некоторых секторах криптоэкономики последние три месяца прошедшего года оказались катастрофичными. Как отметили аналитики CoinGecko, рыночная турбулентность того периода привела к тому, что 7,7 млн токенов перестали проявлять торговую активность, особенно сильный удар пришелся по сектору мемкоинов.
Но крипторынок всегда пытается найти новый тренд, или «игру», для спекуляций. Отраслевые эксперты периодически обращают внимание, что отсутствие азарта у криптотрейдеров может привести к общему упадку на рынке. В конце 2024 года, незадолго до выборов президента США, глава аналитической платформы CryptoQuant Ки Юн Джу указал, что без «создания новой игры, которая будет стимулировать дофамин трейдеров, криптоиндустрию ждет длительный период стагнации».
Текущая динамика роста объемов на рынках предсказаний как раз может стать такой «игрой» для криптотрейдеров, предлагая ту же самую спекулятивную составляющую и острые ощущения в виде бинарных ставок «да» или «нет» на реальные события, быстрые результаты, отмечают журналисты Bloomberg. Нет никаких «дорожных карт», пишет издание, имея в виду, что инвесторам не нужно ждать месяцы, пока команда разработчиков выполнит свои планы по развитию продукта, — только «дофаминовая петля» с простым вариантом наступления событий.
Несмотря на рост объемов и интереса, такие рынки все также приносят прибыль лишь небольшой части инвесторов. Согласно данным исследовательской компании defioasis.eth, порядка 70% пользовательских кошельков, использующих рынки предсказаний, зафиксировали убытки.
Рост интереса
Интерес к сектору также подтверждается данными о загрузках приложений. В то время как показатель для криптовалютных бирж резко упал в прошлом году, рынки прогнозов двигались в противоположном направлении.
Количество установок Polymarket выросло с 30 тыс. в январе до более чем 400 тыс. к декабрю, по данным аналитической компании Sensor Tower. Количество установок Kalshi за тот же период увеличилось с 80 тыс. до 1,3 млн. У Binance, крупнейшей в мире криптовалютной биржи, количество загрузок сократилось более чем вдвое.
Крупные игроки на крипторынке уже осваивают новый возможный тренд. Как отметил в начале января, согласно Bloomberg, глава Robinhood Влад Тенев, «мы находимся в самом начале суперцикла рынка прогнозов».
Например, в ноябре прошлого года Google стал показывать данные Polymarket и Kalshi в поиске и на обновленной платформе Google Finance, а Yahoo Finance анонсировал отображение прогнозов по ключевым экономическим и политическим событиям.
Интерес проявляют и биржевые гиганты. В октябре Intercontinental Exchange (владелец NYSE) провела раунд финансирования Polymarket на $2 млрд. Крупнейшая американская криптобиржа Coinbase добавила функционал рынков предсказаний через партнерство с Kalshi, а Crypto.com развивает собственное направление.
#polymarket #Bitcoin #CryptoMarketAnalysis
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN FEARS CRUSHED! 🚨
Entry: 45% 📉
Target: 80% 🚀
Odds plummeted from 80% to 45% on Polymarket. This is massive de-risking signaling political compromise is imminent. Macro uncertainty is evaporating fast. Pressure off rates and risk assets. $ETH and $PAXG are breathing easier. When the fear drops this hard, smart money smells a deal closing. Time to reposition.
#MacroDump #RiskOn #Polymarket #CryptoPulse ⚖️
Entry: 45% 📉
Target: 80% 🚀
Odds plummeted from 80% to 45% on Polymarket. This is massive de-risking signaling political compromise is imminent. Macro uncertainty is evaporating fast. Pressure off rates and risk assets. $ETH and $PAXG are breathing easier. When the fear drops this hard, smart money smells a deal closing. Time to reposition.
#MacroDump #RiskOn #Polymarket #CryptoPulse ⚖️
🚨 JUST IN – EUA
As chances de novo shutdown do governo dos EUA começar amanhã caíram para 51% na Polymarket.
O mercado reduz o risco, mas a incerteza política segue elevada.
#GovernmentShutdown #USPolitics #Polymarket
$PAXG
As chances de novo shutdown do governo dos EUA começar amanhã caíram para 51% na Polymarket.
O mercado reduz o risco, mas a incerteza política segue elevada.
#GovernmentShutdown #USPolitics #Polymarket
$PAXG
【项目大解析第1期-Polymarket】看的新闻可能是编的，听的专家可能是买的，但 Polymarket 上的真金白银绝不会演戏。这个被称为 Web3“真理机器”的应用，正在用最残酷的规则逼着全世界的人说实话：想预测？先掏钱。 本期视频带你拆解 Polymarket 的底层逻辑：它如何把虚无缥缈的内幕变成可以买卖的股票？为什么连大选结果它都能提前预警？ 带你剥开 Web3 的外壳，看清这个世界的真实底牌。#区块链 #空投 #区块链科普 #Polymarket
🚨 $NOM BETTING MARKETS FLASH SHUTDOWN ALERT! 🚨
Over $4.2M staked on Polymarket. Odds are 77% for a U.S. government shutdown by Jan 31. This is a massive sentiment gauge signaling real political risk.
This uncertainty fuels altcoin volatility. Watch $ZKC, $DUSK, and $NOM for amplified moves. Macro traders are positioning now. Expect volatility spikes as the deadline approaches. Hedge your positions.
#NOM #Polymarket #GovernmentShutdown #CryptoVolatility ⚡
Over $4.2M staked on Polymarket. Odds are 77% for a U.S. government shutdown by Jan 31. This is a massive sentiment gauge signaling real political risk.
This uncertainty fuels altcoin volatility. Watch $ZKC, $DUSK, and $NOM for amplified moves. Macro traders are positioning now. Expect volatility spikes as the deadline approaches. Hedge your positions.
#NOM #Polymarket #GovernmentShutdown #CryptoVolatility ⚡
🚨 $NOM SHUTDOWN RISK HITS 77%! 🚨
Over $4.2M staked on Polymarket signaling massive political volatility ahead. This is your real-time sentiment gauge for risk assets.
Heightened political uncertainty means amplified moves are coming for $ZKC, $DUSK, and $NOM . Expect major volatility spikes as the Jan 31 deadline approaches. Macro traders are positioning now.
Trade with extreme caution. Hedge your exposure. This could get messy fast.
#NOM #Polymarket #GovernmentShutdown #CryptoVolatility ⚡
Over $4.2M staked on Polymarket signaling massive political volatility ahead. This is your real-time sentiment gauge for risk assets.
Heightened political uncertainty means amplified moves are coming for $ZKC, $DUSK, and $NOM . Expect major volatility spikes as the Jan 31 deadline approaches. Macro traders are positioning now.
Trade with extreme caution. Hedge your exposure. This could get messy fast.
#NOM #Polymarket #GovernmentShutdown #CryptoVolatility ⚡
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN FEARS CRASHING! 🚨
Entry: 45% 📉
Target: 45% 🚀
Stop Loss: 80% 🛑
MACRO UNCERTAINTY EVAPORATING FAST. Political compromise is being priced in right now. This eases massive pressure on risk assets like $ETH and $PAXG. When the odds drop this hard, you know the smart money smells a deal. Get ready for relief rallies across the board. $DUSK beneficiaries incoming.
#CryptoNews #MacroPlay #RiskOn #Polymarket ⚖️
Entry: 45% 📉
Target: 45% 🚀
Stop Loss: 80% 🛑
MACRO UNCERTAINTY EVAPORATING FAST. Political compromise is being priced in right now. This eases massive pressure on risk assets like $ETH and $PAXG. When the odds drop this hard, you know the smart money smells a deal. Get ready for relief rallies across the board. $DUSK beneficiaries incoming.
#CryptoNews #MacroPlay #RiskOn #Polymarket ⚖️
#USShutdown #BTC
🚨⚠️ Bitcoin Alert: $60,000 Risk Ahead? ⚠️🚨
Bitcoin traders are bracing for a major macro shock as the U.S. government shutdown deadline approaches 📉🇺🇸
@CryptoNews
🔍 What’s Driving the Fear?
🏛️ US funding expires: Jan 30
⏰ Shutdown risk: Starts Jan 31 if Congress fails
📊 Statistical blackout: No CPI, jobs, or GDP data → market uncertainty spikes
🎯 Prediction Markets Signal Trouble
🔮 Shutdown odds: Up to 80%
💰 Bets placed: Nearly $11M
📉 Bitcoin Price Outlook (24–72H)
⚠️ Bearish bias if shutdown confirmed
🧲 Liquidity hunt toward $60,000
🐻 Volatility expected as traders de-risk
🧠 What Traders Are Doing
🛡️ Hedging with shorts & options
💵 Moving into stablecoins
⏳ Waiting for post-shutdown clarity
🚀 Bull Case (If Shutdown Avoided)
✅ Relief rally possible
📈 BTC reclaiming $63K–$65K zone
🔥 Shorts get squeezed fast
⚠️ Bottom Line:
Macro risk > technicals right now. Expect high volatility — trade light, manage risk, and stay nimble 🧠⚡
$BTC $XRP $SOL
#CryptoNews #MarketVolatility #Polymarket 🚀💰
🚨⚠️ Bitcoin Alert: $60,000 Risk Ahead? ⚠️🚨
Bitcoin traders are bracing for a major macro shock as the U.S. government shutdown deadline approaches 📉🇺🇸
@CryptoNews
🔍 What’s Driving the Fear?
🏛️ US funding expires: Jan 30
⏰ Shutdown risk: Starts Jan 31 if Congress fails
📊 Statistical blackout: No CPI, jobs, or GDP data → market uncertainty spikes
🎯 Prediction Markets Signal Trouble
🔮 Shutdown odds: Up to 80%
💰 Bets placed: Nearly $11M
📉 Bitcoin Price Outlook (24–72H)
⚠️ Bearish bias if shutdown confirmed
🧲 Liquidity hunt toward $60,000
🐻 Volatility expected as traders de-risk
🧠 What Traders Are Doing
🛡️ Hedging with shorts & options
💵 Moving into stablecoins
⏳ Waiting for post-shutdown clarity
🚀 Bull Case (If Shutdown Avoided)
✅ Relief rally possible
📈 BTC reclaiming $63K–$65K zone
🔥 Shorts get squeezed fast
⚠️ Bottom Line:
Macro risk > technicals right now. Expect high volatility — trade light, manage risk, and stay nimble 🧠⚡
$BTC $XRP $SOL
#CryptoNews #MarketVolatility #Polymarket 🚀💰
🚨 ALERT: Polymarket traders now see a 69% chance of a U.S. government shutdown by Saturday! 👀 $ZEC
#Crypto #Polymarket #USGov #TradingAlert
$BTC $RIVER
#Crypto #Polymarket #USGov #TradingAlert
$BTC $RIVER
𝙏𝙝𝙚 $18 𝘽𝙞𝙡𝙡𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙏𝙧𝙪𝙩𝙝 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙚 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙤𝙧𝙡𝙙 𝙒𝙖𝙨𝙣’𝙩 𝙍𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙮 𝙁𝙤𝙧
Polymarket has evolved into the Web3 ecosystem's primary engine for real-time probability, effectively outpacing legacy media polling. With 17 million monthly visits and billions in volume, it serves as the ultimate aggregator of global sentiment. It is no longer just a trading venue; it is the go-to data layer where the market discovers accurate probabilities on geopolitical and economic events before the news breaks.
The platform removes the friction of traditional finance, offering a seamless decentralized experience that integrates effortlessly with tools like Phantom and MetaMask. This accessibility allows users to capture opportunities instantly, supporting a massive $18B projected volume for 2025.
By decentralizing access to information markets, it empowers traders to act on insights without the complex barriers of legacy systems.
Market participants are closely watching the ecosystem for the anticipated arrival of the $POLY token, which represents a major catalyst for future utility and growth.
As the platform solidifies its role as the "oracle of the internet," active engagement is viewed as a strategic move by savvy traders. This momentum mirrors the success of other category-defining assets, positioning the protocol as a cornerstone of the next cycle.
#poly #Polymarket
Polymarket has evolved into the Web3 ecosystem's primary engine for real-time probability, effectively outpacing legacy media polling. With 17 million monthly visits and billions in volume, it serves as the ultimate aggregator of global sentiment. It is no longer just a trading venue; it is the go-to data layer where the market discovers accurate probabilities on geopolitical and economic events before the news breaks.
The platform removes the friction of traditional finance, offering a seamless decentralized experience that integrates effortlessly with tools like Phantom and MetaMask. This accessibility allows users to capture opportunities instantly, supporting a massive $18B projected volume for 2025.
By decentralizing access to information markets, it empowers traders to act on insights without the complex barriers of legacy systems.
Market participants are closely watching the ecosystem for the anticipated arrival of the $POLY token, which represents a major catalyst for future utility and growth.
As the platform solidifies its role as the "oracle of the internet," active engagement is viewed as a strategic move by savvy traders. This momentum mirrors the success of other category-defining assets, positioning the protocol as a cornerstone of the next cycle.
#poly #Polymarket
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