miningdifficulty

Bitcoin's Hash Ribbon Just Flashed the SAME Signal That Called the $15K Bottom (2022) and $49K Bottom (2024). While everyone panics about Bitcoin trading at $88K, one of crypto's most reliable on-chain indicators just triggered—and historically, what happens NEXT could shock casual traders.
What Just Happened🚨:
Bitcoin's Hash Ribbon indicator flashed a capitulation signal after the network hashrate crashed 20% from its October peak (1.2 ZH/s → 950 EH/s). Mining difficulty is set to drop 17% on January 22nd—the LARGEST difficulty decline since China's mining ban in July 2021.
But here's what most traders miss: This is EXACTLY when smart money positions for the next leg up.
What Is the Hash Ribbon?
Created by Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, the Hash Ribbon tracks Bitcoin miner health using two simple metrics:
• 30-day moving average of hashrate (short-term trend)
• 60-day moving average of hashrate (long-term trend)
The Signal:
- When the 30-day MA crosses BELOW the 60-day MA = Miner Capitulation (dark red phase)
- When the 30-day MA crosses BACK ABOVE the 60-day MA = Capitulation Ending (light red → white)
Translation: Weak miners are shutting down (selling Bitcoin to survive), then strong miners emerge (buying opportunity forms).
Why This Matters?:
Miners Are Bitcoin's "Forced Sellers"
Unlike retail traders, miners MUST sell Bitcoin to cover:
- Electricity costs ($40/petahash-second per day breakeven threshold)
- Hardware investments
- Operational expenses
When profitability collapses (it hit $35/petahash in November—a multi-year low), miners are forced to: Shut down unprofitable rigs (hashrate drops), Liquidate and Bitcoin reserves (sell pressure spikes)
Exit the market entirely (weak hands capitulate)
Once this selling exhausts itself, a MASSIVE supply overhang gets removed from the market.
Historical Performance🎯:
The Hash Ribbon has called EVERY major Bitcoin bottom since 2012:
November 2022 (FTX Collapse):
Signal triggered at $15,000
Bitcoin rallied to $22,000 within weeks
Eventually hit $100,000 by January 2025 (+567%)
August 2024 (Yen Carry Trade Unwind):
Signal triggered at $49,000
Bitcoin rallied to $100,000 by January 2025 (+104%)
June 2022 (Bear Market Bottom):
Signal triggered during $17K-$20K range
Preceded entire 2023-2024 bull run
May 2021 (China Mining Ban):
Signal triggered at $30,000
Bitcoin recovered to $69,000 by November (+130%)
Current Signal (January 2026):
Triggered after drop to $81,000 (November low)
Bitcoin already bouncing to $90,000+ range
Pattern suggests 30-100%+ upside over next 6-12 months
WHY Does This Work?🤷
Three fundamental reasons:
1. Supply Shock Removal
When miners capitulate and shut down, daily Bitcoin selling pressure from mining operations DISAPPEARS. The network still produces ~900 BTC/day, but it's concentrated among profitable miners who can HODL instead of immediately selling.
2. Difficulty Adjustment Creates Profitability
As hashrate drops 20%, difficulty drops 17% to compensate. This means remaining miners can mine blocks with LESS energy and computing power, instantly improving margins and reducing sell pressure.
3. Market Psychology Reset
Miner capitulation signals the "maximum pain" phase. Retail is panicking, leverage is flushed, and weak hands have exited. This creates the FOUNDATION for the next rally.
The Current Setup (January 2026)🚧:
Bearish Pressures Causing Capitulation:
April 2024 halving cut block rewards 50% (6.25 BTC → 3.125 BTC)
Hash price collapsed below $35 (worst levels since 2021)
Trump tariffs threaten mining hardware supply chains
October flash crash dropped BTC from $125K → $80K (-36%)
Macro uncertainty (Fed policy, government shutdown fears)
Miners pivoting to AI/HPC (Riot Platforms selling BTC to fund AI infrastructure)
Bullish Signals Emerging:
Hash Ribbon buy signal triggered (30-day MA crossing back above 60-day)
Difficulty dropping 17% = instant profitability boost
Bitcoin price recovering from $81K → $90K already
VanEck analysis: "Miner stress historically precedes renewed price momentum"
Inefficient miners exiting = network strengthening
What Smart Traders Are Doing RIGHT NOW:
• Strategy #1: The DCA Accumulator
Using miner capitulation as confirmation to dollar-cost-average into BTC at $85K-$92K range, targeting $120K-$150K by Q3-Q4 2026.
• Strategy #2: The Range Trader
Buying support at $85K-$88K, selling resistance at $94K-$100K, using Hash Ribbon as confirmation the downside risk is minimizing.
• Strategy #3: The Patient Holder
Viewing this as similar to the $49K August 2024 setup that led to $100K+ in 5 months. Holding through volatility with 6-12 month time horizon.
Critical Levels to Watch👀:
a. Support Zones:
$85,300 (previous low + ETF cost basis area)
$80,000 (November psychological low)
$75,000 (extreme bearish scenario)
b. Resistance Zones:
$94,500 (key breakout level)
$100,000 (psychological round number)
$108,000 (previous consolidation zone)
Hashrate Recovery Confirmation:
Watch for the 30-day MA to FIRMLY cross above the 60-day MA and stay there for 7+ days. This confirms the capitulation phase is truly over.
The Contrarian Truth:
Everyone wants to buy Bitcoin at $150K when CNBC is screaming "new all-time highs."
Nobody wants to buy when:
🍁Miners are capitulating
🍁Headlines scream "crypto winter"
🍁Hashrate is crashing
🍁Fear & Greed Index shows "Extreme Fear"
But that's EXACTLY when the Hash Ribbon signals opportunity.
Warren Buffett: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."
Charles Edwards (Hash Ribbon creator): "When miners give up, it is possibly the most powerful Bitcoin buy signal ever."
🤔
Are you buying the signal that called the last 4 major bottoms?
Or are you waiting for confirmation when Bitcoin is already at $120K and miners are profitable again?
History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. The Hash Ribbon is speaking. Are you listening?🗿
#bitcoin #hashrate #MiningDifficulty

Bitcoin is under pressure as its price slides to $90,567, reflecting a 3% decline in the past day and 8% over the week, according to CoinMarketCap. The cryptocurrency is currently in a bearish cycle characterized by lower highs and lower lows, as both technical and fundamental indicators suggest continued downside momentum.
However, the mining ecosystem paints a different picture, with Bitcoin’s network reaching an unprecedented milestone: the mining difficulty has adjusted upward for the eighth consecutive time, achieving a new all-time high of 110.45 trillion, according to Glassnode data. This remarkable feat underscores the network's resilience and increasing competition among miners despite market turbulence.
🚀 The Mining Difficulty Milestone
Bitcoin's mining difficulty is a metric that determines how challenging it is to mine new blocks. This difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks (approximately two weeks) to maintain an average block production time of 10 minutes, irrespective of fluctuations in the network's computational power (hashrate).
The 7-day moving average of the hashrate currently stands at an astonishing 775 exahashes per second (EH/s) and is projected to reach 1 zettahash before the next Bitcoin halving, according to Coindesk. This surge in computational power highlights the growing investment in Bitcoin mining infrastructure despite price volatility.
📊 Historical Trends and Market Impact
Bitcoin's mining difficulty increases often coincide with pivotal market movements, but the outcomes remain uncertain:
Bull Market 2021: Nine consecutive positive difficulty adjustments culminated with Bitcoin reaching its all-time high of $69,000.
Bear Market 2018: A record 17 consecutive positive adjustments were followed by a sharp downturn, with Bitcoin dropping from $20,000 to $3,000 during the market cycle.
This ambiguity indicates that while sustained difficulty increases signify heightened market activity, they do not necessarily guarantee directional clarity for Bitcoin's price.
🔍 Current Market Sentiment
Bitcoin's current price of $90,567 raises questions about whether the market is entering another prolonged bear phase or nearing a pivotal reversal. The bearish technical pattern suggests further downside potential, but the robust growth in mining difficulty and hashrate reflects continued confidence in the network's long-term fundamentals.
With Bitcoin's mining infrastructure reaching historic highs and the market grappling with bearish momentum, traders and investors should remain cautious yet vigilant for potential turning points.
📌 Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin price is in a bearish trend, down 3% daily and 8% weekly.
Mining difficulty hits an all-time high of 110.45 trillion, reflecting increased miner competition.
Hashrate projections suggest further growth to 1 zettahash before the next halving.
Historical difficulty trends highlight the network’s resilience but provide no clear price direction.
Stay tuned for further updates as Bitcoin navigates this critical juncture in its market cycle.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading #MiningDifficulty #PriceAnalysis

📈 Network Difficulty just climbed to a record 127.6T, while $BTC trades around $113.2K. This signals:

🛡 Stronger network security than ever – higher hashrate makes the network more resilient to attacks.

⛏️ Intensifying miner competition – advanced hardware and rising operational costs reflect long-term confidence in Bitcoin.

🔮 Historical bull-cycle behavior – in previous runs, difficulty surges often followed price rallies, hinting at sustained institutional inflows.

#BitcoinMining #MiningDifficulty #BTCBullRun2025
$BTC $XRP

📉 Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Adjusts Downward:
A Sign of Miner Capitulation or a Buying Opportunity?
The Bitcoin network has just undergone a significant difficulty adjustment at block height 923,328, decreasing by 2.37% to 152.27 T. This event, while technical, sends powerful signals to traders, investors, and miners about the health and direction of the ecosystem.

🔧 What Just Happened?

· Event: Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Adjustment
· Change: -2.37%
· New Difficulty: 152.27 T
· Block Height: 923,328


💡 Why This Matters for Your Portfolio:

1. Miner Pressure Eases: A lower difficulty means it becomes easier and more profitable for existing miners to mine $BTC .This can reduce the selling pressure from miners who need to cover operational costs, potentially stabilizing the price.

2. A Classic Market Indicator: Historically, periods of significant downward difficulty adjustments have often preceded price bottoms. It can signal that weaker, less efficient miners have been forced to shut down, a phase known as "miner capitulation," which has often marked the end of a bearish cycle.

3. Network Health Check: This adjustment is the network's built-in self-correction mechanism. It ensures blocks are produced consistently at ~10 minutes apart, even if mining power (hash rate) fluctuates, proving the resilience of Bitcoin's core code.

🎯 Smart Financial Takeaways:

· For Traders: Watch for a potential reduction in miner selling. This could be a precursor to a medium-term bullish trend if the hash rate begins to recover.
· For Investors: This is a fundamental on-chain metric suggesting the network is weeding out inefficiency. It can be a signal to consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into $BTC positions.
· Key Level to Watch: Monitor the $101,926 support level for $BTC . A hold above this, coupled with this difficulty drop, could indicate strength.

The Bottom Line: While not a guarantee of immediate price appreciation, a falling difficulty is a key fundamental metric that often creates a healthier foundation for the next leg up. It reflects the self-healing nature of the Bitcoin network.

Source: PANews, On-chain Data
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#Bitcoin #BTC #MiningDifficulty #CryptoNews #BitcoinMining #TradingSignals #OnChain #CryptoAnalysis #Blockchain #Investing #BİNANCESQUARE