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📊 [UPDATED AS OF JULY 12, 2025] WINRATE & SENTIMENT: SOMETIMES FEAR OUTPERFORMS GREED
Based on our analysis of community-wide trading data, we examined how winrate varies across different levels of market sentiment, as defined by the Fear and Greed Index (FGI). The results reveal some surprising patterns.
⭐️ Average winrate by market sentiment:
🔹 When the market is in Fear – winrate peaks at 45.19%, the highest across all sentiment categories.
🔹 In a Neutral state – winrate is 44.62%, suggesting stable performance without emotional extremes.
🔹 During Greed – winrate dips slightly to 44.39%, reflecting increased impulsiveness and FOMO-driven trades.
🔹 Under Extreme Fear – winrate remains relatively strong at 44.33%, showing disciplined execution by cautious traders.
🔹 At the height of Extreme Greed – winrate drops to just 42.37%, the lowest among all segments.
⭐️ Key Takeaways:
🔸 When the market is overly greedy, winrate suffers most. This is often when traders chase price moves, ignore risks, and act irrationally.
🔸 Conversely, winrate is strongest during times of fear. Traders tend to be more selective, risk-aware, and focused during uncertain periods.
⭐️ Conclusion:
The data suggests that markets do not reward extreme excitement. When others are fearful, it might just be your best chance to trade calmly and accurately.
Always remember: Good trading is driven by discipline, not emotion.
#Insight #FGI #Winrate #CryptoPsychology
Based on our analysis of community-wide trading data, we examined how winrate varies across different levels of market sentiment, as defined by the Fear and Greed Index (FGI). The results reveal some surprising patterns.
⭐️ Average winrate by market sentiment:
🔹 When the market is in Fear – winrate peaks at 45.19%, the highest across all sentiment categories.
🔹 In a Neutral state – winrate is 44.62%, suggesting stable performance without emotional extremes.
🔹 During Greed – winrate dips slightly to 44.39%, reflecting increased impulsiveness and FOMO-driven trades.
🔹 Under Extreme Fear – winrate remains relatively strong at 44.33%, showing disciplined execution by cautious traders.
🔹 At the height of Extreme Greed – winrate drops to just 42.37%, the lowest among all segments.
⭐️ Key Takeaways:
🔸 When the market is overly greedy, winrate suffers most. This is often when traders chase price moves, ignore risks, and act irrationally.
🔸 Conversely, winrate is strongest during times of fear. Traders tend to be more selective, risk-aware, and focused during uncertain periods.
⭐️ Conclusion:
The data suggests that markets do not reward extreme excitement. When others are fearful, it might just be your best chance to trade calmly and accurately.
Always remember: Good trading is driven by discipline, not emotion.
#Insight #FGI #Winrate #CryptoPsychology
عرض الترجمة
📊 WIN RATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) ANALYSIS – updated through 2025-11-01
Daily win-rate data for the scalping community shows the FGI–win-rate correlation remains very weak (≈ -0.11). Win rate does not track FGI linearly; the “Extreme Greed” zone continues to be the riskiest for performance.
🔍 Brief interpretation
In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) drags win rate down sharply. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample, so treat as indicative only.
📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with day counts)
😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5
😟 Fear (20–<40): 45.75% — n=113
😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.28% — n=130
😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.92% — n=214
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)
Share of days exceeding the 44.99% average win rate by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 56.64% • Neutral 49.23% • Greed 44.39% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.
📈 Implications for scalping
➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, favor early profit-taking when momentum fades.
➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid pushing TP too far due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to warrant a strategy overhaul).
➤ FGI <20: small sample—handle with care; focus remains on order management.
#FGI #Winrate
Daily win-rate data for the scalping community shows the FGI–win-rate correlation remains very weak (≈ -0.11). Win rate does not track FGI linearly; the “Extreme Greed” zone continues to be the riskiest for performance.
🔍 Brief interpretation
In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) drags win rate down sharply. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample, so treat as indicative only.
📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with day counts)
😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5
😟 Fear (20–<40): 45.75% — n=113
😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.28% — n=130
😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.92% — n=214
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)
Share of days exceeding the 44.99% average win rate by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 56.64% • Neutral 49.23% • Greed 44.39% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.
📈 Implications for scalping
➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, favor early profit-taking when momentum fades.
➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid pushing TP too far due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to warrant a strategy overhaul).
➤ FGI <20: small sample—handle with care; focus remains on order management.
#FGI #Winrate
تحليل معدل الربح ومعنويات السوق (FGI) - مُحدّث حتى 16 أغسطس 2025
تُظهر بيانات معدل الربح اليومية من مجتمع المضاربة السريعة (Scalping) علاقة ضعيفة جدًا بين معدل الربح (FGI) والأداء (الارتباط ≈ -0.07). لا يتزامن معدل الربح مع المعنويات؛ فمرحلة "الجشع الشديد"، على وجه الخصوص، تميل إلى خفض الأداء بشكل ملحوظ.
🔍 لمحة سريعة
عندما يكون مؤشر FGI في منطقة الخوف (26-46)، يميل المتداولون إلى توخي الحذر وجني الأرباح مبكرًا، وبالتالي يكون معدل الربح أعلى من المتوسط. في منطقة الجشع (55-74)، يكون معدل الربح أعلى أيضًا، ولكن بشكل طفيف. على النقيض من ذلك، غالبًا ما يصاحب "الجشع الشديد" الخوف من تفويت الربح (FOMO): حيث يتم تمديد أهداف جني الأرباح، وتصل الأوامر إلى حد إيقاف الخسارة قبل الوصول إلى الهدف.
📉 متوسط نسبة الفوز حسب نطاق FGI (مع الأيام)
😨 الخوف الشديد (≤25): 44.57% - عدد اللاعبين = 23
😟 الخوف (26-46): 45.19% - عدد اللاعبين = 96
😐 محايد (47-54): 44.71% - عدد اللاعبين = 52
😃 الجشع (55-74): 45.27% - عدد اللاعبين = 177 (أعلى نسبة، لكنها أعلى بقليل من الخوف)
🤑 الجشع الشديد (≥75): 42.55% - عدد اللاعبين = 62 (أدنى نسبة)
نسبة الأيام التي تزيد عن متوسط نسبة الفوز الإجمالي البالغ 44.73% حسب نطاق FGI: الخوف 57.29% (أعلى نسبة)، الجشع 48.59%، محايد 44.23%، الخوف الشديد 43.48%، الجشع الشديد 29.03% (أدنى نسبة). هذا يدعم فكرة أن أكبر خطر يكمن في مرحلة "الجشع الشديد"، بينما تُحقق مراحل الخوف/الجشع المعتدلة أداءً مستقرًا نسبيًا.
📈 آثار المضاربة السريعة
1- عندما يكون مؤشر FGI ≥ 75: اخفض توقعات جني الأرباح، وقلّل من حدّ وقف الخسارة بشكل معقول، وفضّل جني الأرباح المبكر عند تلاشي الزخم.
2- عندما يكون مؤشر FGI بين 26 و74: حافظ على انضباط نسبة الربح إلى الربح؛ تجنّب تمديد حدّ جني الأرباح بسبب الخوف من تفويت الفرص (FOMO) (فجوة معدل الربح بين الخوف والجشع ليست كبيرة بما يكفي لتبرير تغيير الاستراتيجية بالكامل).
3- عندما يكون مؤشر FGI ≤ 25: يكون الأداء قريبًا من المتوسط؛ ركّز على إدارة الأوامر بدلًا من محاولة "التصيد الخفي".
🧠 الخلاصة
لا يُحدد مؤشر FGI معدل الربح بشكل مباشر، ولكنه يُمثّل إشارة مفيدة لتعديل توقعات جني الأرباح/وقف الخسارة. تجنّب التطرف خلال مرحلة "الجشع الشديد" وحافظ على انضباط الأهداف للحفاظ على ثبات أداء المضاربة السريعة.#FGI #ScalpingInsights
تُظهر بيانات معدل الربح اليومية من مجتمع المضاربة السريعة (Scalping) علاقة ضعيفة جدًا بين معدل الربح (FGI) والأداء (الارتباط ≈ -0.07). لا يتزامن معدل الربح مع المعنويات؛ فمرحلة "الجشع الشديد"، على وجه الخصوص، تميل إلى خفض الأداء بشكل ملحوظ.
🔍 لمحة سريعة
عندما يكون مؤشر FGI في منطقة الخوف (26-46)، يميل المتداولون إلى توخي الحذر وجني الأرباح مبكرًا، وبالتالي يكون معدل الربح أعلى من المتوسط. في منطقة الجشع (55-74)، يكون معدل الربح أعلى أيضًا، ولكن بشكل طفيف. على النقيض من ذلك، غالبًا ما يصاحب "الجشع الشديد" الخوف من تفويت الربح (FOMO): حيث يتم تمديد أهداف جني الأرباح، وتصل الأوامر إلى حد إيقاف الخسارة قبل الوصول إلى الهدف.
📉 متوسط نسبة الفوز حسب نطاق FGI (مع الأيام)
😨 الخوف الشديد (≤25): 44.57% - عدد اللاعبين = 23
😟 الخوف (26-46): 45.19% - عدد اللاعبين = 96
😐 محايد (47-54): 44.71% - عدد اللاعبين = 52
😃 الجشع (55-74): 45.27% - عدد اللاعبين = 177 (أعلى نسبة، لكنها أعلى بقليل من الخوف)
🤑 الجشع الشديد (≥75): 42.55% - عدد اللاعبين = 62 (أدنى نسبة)
نسبة الأيام التي تزيد عن متوسط نسبة الفوز الإجمالي البالغ 44.73% حسب نطاق FGI: الخوف 57.29% (أعلى نسبة)، الجشع 48.59%، محايد 44.23%، الخوف الشديد 43.48%، الجشع الشديد 29.03% (أدنى نسبة). هذا يدعم فكرة أن أكبر خطر يكمن في مرحلة "الجشع الشديد"، بينما تُحقق مراحل الخوف/الجشع المعتدلة أداءً مستقرًا نسبيًا.
📈 آثار المضاربة السريعة
1- عندما يكون مؤشر FGI ≥ 75: اخفض توقعات جني الأرباح، وقلّل من حدّ وقف الخسارة بشكل معقول، وفضّل جني الأرباح المبكر عند تلاشي الزخم.
2- عندما يكون مؤشر FGI بين 26 و74: حافظ على انضباط نسبة الربح إلى الربح؛ تجنّب تمديد حدّ جني الأرباح بسبب الخوف من تفويت الفرص (FOMO) (فجوة معدل الربح بين الخوف والجشع ليست كبيرة بما يكفي لتبرير تغيير الاستراتيجية بالكامل).
3- عندما يكون مؤشر FGI ≤ 25: يكون الأداء قريبًا من المتوسط؛ ركّز على إدارة الأوامر بدلًا من محاولة "التصيد الخفي".
🧠 الخلاصة
لا يُحدد مؤشر FGI معدل الربح بشكل مباشر، ولكنه يُمثّل إشارة مفيدة لتعديل توقعات جني الأرباح/وقف الخسارة. تجنّب التطرف خلال مرحلة "الجشع الشديد" وحافظ على انضباط الأهداف للحفاظ على ثبات أداء المضاربة السريعة.#FGI #ScalpingInsights
عرض الترجمة
📊 WIN RATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) ANALYSIS — updated through 2025-08-30
Daily community scalping win-rate data shows a very weak FGI–win-rate correlation (≈ -0.08). Win rate does not move linearly with FGI; the “Extreme Greed” phase remains the riskiest for performance.
🔍 Quick take
At Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) pulls win rate down sharply. Note that Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample size, so treat it as indicative only.
📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with days)
😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5
😟 Fear (20–<40): 44.91% — n=92
😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.40% — n=107
😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.97% — n=195
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)
Share of days above the 44.81% overall average by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 52.17% • Neutral 49.53% • Greed 47.69% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.
These results reinforce that “Extreme Greed” is the band where discipline must be tightened the most, while Fear/Neutral deliver relatively stable performance around the average.
📈 Implications for scalping
1 - FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, prioritize partial/early take-profit when momentum fades.
2 - FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TP due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to warrant a wholesale strategy change).
3 - FGI <20: small sample; proceed cautiously—focus on order management.
#TradingInsights #FGI
Daily community scalping win-rate data shows a very weak FGI–win-rate correlation (≈ -0.08). Win rate does not move linearly with FGI; the “Extreme Greed” phase remains the riskiest for performance.
🔍 Quick take
At Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) pulls win rate down sharply. Note that Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample size, so treat it as indicative only.
📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with days)
😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5
😟 Fear (20–<40): 44.91% — n=92
😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.40% — n=107
😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.97% — n=195
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)
Share of days above the 44.81% overall average by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 52.17% • Neutral 49.53% • Greed 47.69% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.
These results reinforce that “Extreme Greed” is the band where discipline must be tightened the most, while Fear/Neutral deliver relatively stable performance around the average.
📈 Implications for scalping
1 - FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, prioritize partial/early take-profit when momentum fades.
2 - FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TP due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to warrant a wholesale strategy change).
3 - FGI <20: small sample; proceed cautiously—focus on order management.
#TradingInsights #FGI
عرض الترجمة
📊 WINRATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) ANALYSIS – updated to 2025-09-13
Daily community scalping data shows a very weak FGI–winrate correlation (≈ -0.08). Winrate does not move linearly with FGI; the “Extreme Greed” phase remains the riskiest zone for performance.
🔍 Quick interpretation
In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance sits around the average, with Neutral slightly higher; Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) pulls winrate down sharply. Note that Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample, so treat it as indicative only.
📉 Average winrate by FGI band (with sample size)
😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5
😟 Fear (20–<40): 44.91% — n=92
😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.41% — n=121
😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.97% — n=195
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)
Share of days above the 44.83% average by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 52.17% • Neutral 50.41% • Greed 47.18% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.
This reinforces that “Extreme Greed” is where discipline must be tightened the most; Fear/Neutral deliver relatively stable performance around the mean.
📈 Implications for scalping
➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, prioritize early profit-taking when momentum fades.
➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid pushing TP too far due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed are not large enough to justify a strategy overhaul).
➤ FGI <20: small sample—handle cautiously; focus on order management.
#TradingInsights #FGI
Daily community scalping data shows a very weak FGI–winrate correlation (≈ -0.08). Winrate does not move linearly with FGI; the “Extreme Greed” phase remains the riskiest zone for performance.
🔍 Quick interpretation
In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance sits around the average, with Neutral slightly higher; Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) pulls winrate down sharply. Note that Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample, so treat it as indicative only.
📉 Average winrate by FGI band (with sample size)
😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5
😟 Fear (20–<40): 44.91% — n=92
😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.41% — n=121
😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.97% — n=195
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)
Share of days above the 44.83% average by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 52.17% • Neutral 50.41% • Greed 47.18% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.
This reinforces that “Extreme Greed” is where discipline must be tightened the most; Fear/Neutral deliver relatively stable performance around the mean.
📈 Implications for scalping
➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, prioritize early profit-taking when momentum fades.
➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid pushing TP too far due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed are not large enough to justify a strategy overhaul).
➤ FGI <20: small sample—handle cautiously; focus on order management.
#TradingInsights #FGI
اقتباس شهير لوارين بافيت. . . . .
عندما يكون الجميع جشعين، اختر جانبًا. . . .
#fgi
#FearAndGreedIndex
عندما يكون الجميع جشعين، اختر جانبًا. . . .
#fgi
#FearAndGreedIndex
🧠 الانضباط العاطفي: تداول مؤشر الخوف والجشع، وليس تغريدة تويتر.
عندما يصل مؤشر الخوف والجشع إلى "جشع متطرف"، أوجه مستخدميَّ لأخذ الأرباح. عندما يصل إلى "خوف متطرف"، أبحث عن مناطق تراكم ذات فائدة عالية.
الجانب الآمن: لا تشترِ عندما يكون الجميع في حالة من النشوة. لا تبيع عندما يكون الجميع في حالة من الاستسلام. كن مخالفًا بقناعة.
$BTC $ETH
#FGI #Discipline #Contrarian
عندما يصل مؤشر الخوف والجشع إلى "جشع متطرف"، أوجه مستخدميَّ لأخذ الأرباح. عندما يصل إلى "خوف متطرف"، أبحث عن مناطق تراكم ذات فائدة عالية.
الجانب الآمن: لا تشترِ عندما يكون الجميع في حالة من النشوة. لا تبيع عندما يكون الجميع في حالة من الاستسلام. كن مخالفًا بقناعة.
$BTC $ETH
#FGI #Discipline #Contrarian
عرض الترجمة
📊 WIN RATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) ANALYSIS – updated through 2025-10-04
Community scalping data shows the FGI–win rate correlation remains very weak (≈ -0.07). Win rate does not track FGI linearly; Extreme Greed continues to be the riskiest zone for performance.
🔍 Quick take
In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) drags win rate sharply lower. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample, so treat as indicative only.
📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with day counts)
😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5
😟 Fear (20–<40): 44.86% — n=95
😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.17% — n=136
😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.92% — n=198
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)
Share of days above the overall average win rate of 44.76% by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 51.58% • Neutral 50.74% • Greed 47.47% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.
This reinforces that Extreme Greed is where discipline must be tightest, while Fear/Neutral deliver steadier, around-average results.
📈 Implications for scalping
➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SLs, favor early profit-taking when momentum fades.
➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TPs due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to warrant a full strategy shift).
➤ FGI <20: small sample; act cautiously and keep order management front and center.
#WinRateAnalysis #FGI
Community scalping data shows the FGI–win rate correlation remains very weak (≈ -0.07). Win rate does not track FGI linearly; Extreme Greed continues to be the riskiest zone for performance.
🔍 Quick take
In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) drags win rate sharply lower. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample, so treat as indicative only.
📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with day counts)
😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5
😟 Fear (20–<40): 44.86% — n=95
😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.17% — n=136
😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.92% — n=198
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)
Share of days above the overall average win rate of 44.76% by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 51.58% • Neutral 50.74% • Greed 47.47% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.
This reinforces that Extreme Greed is where discipline must be tightest, while Fear/Neutral deliver steadier, around-average results.
📈 Implications for scalping
➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SLs, favor early profit-taking when momentum fades.
➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TPs due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to warrant a full strategy shift).
➤ FGI <20: small sample; act cautiously and keep order management front and center.
#WinRateAnalysis #FGI
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