Mitesh Jain

#USChinaDeal ## US-China Trade Deal Forecast 2026 **Current Status**: Trump struck a deal with Xi in October 2025 that **extended tariff exclusions until November 10, 2026**, but the full text remains unpublished. US tariffs on China dropped from 145% to ~30% aggregate, while China suspended retaliatory tariffs and committed to buying 12M tons of US soybeans. **2026 Outlook - Fragile Truce**: - **Tariff exclusions expire Nov 10, 2026** - key renegotiation point - Aggregate US tariff still at **37.3%** (including Trump's first-term levies) - Tech/critical materials competition **intensifying** despite trade pause - Risk of **reciprocal tariff escalation** if deal collapses **Crypto Impact**: Trade war escalation historically crushes risk assets. The current truce is **bullish for crypto** as it removes a major macro headwind. If the deal holds through 2026, expect continued BTC strength. If it collapses near November, watch for sharp selloffs similar to 2025's tariff-driven crashes.