Ghost Writer

Bitcoin is holding its ground this weekend. After Friday’s soft CPI rally, price keeps leaning into the same overhead zone around $70,300, and bids keep showing up above $65,000.
That detail matters more than the stall.
Last Sunday I framed $71,500 as the market’s checkpoint, the line that decides whether this bounce becomes a recovery or fades into another leg down. The logic stays the same, the level stays the same, and the market’s behavior underneath it looks different this time.
Bitcoin already lived through the violent part of this story. The crash down toward $60,000 left a long wick and a long memory. Since then, price has clawed back into the low $70,000s, and every push higher has forced the same question, is this rally rebuilding structure, or is it simply giving traders a cleaner place to sell?
The soft CPI print gave Bitcoin the kind of fuel it usually needs to test resistance with conviction. Price rallied, the chart brightened, and the market drifted into that familiar decision zone again.
Now it’s Saturday morning, liquidity is thinner, and the candles look like they’re hesitating around $70,300. On paper, this is where weak bounces often unwind, especially after a macro headline move. In practice, Bitcoin keeps refusing to give sellers the easy follow through.
That refusal is the setup.
A market that wants lower prices tends to show it quickly on a weekend. It slips through shelves, it hunts stops, it revisits the wick, and it turns every bounce into an exit ramp. This weekend has a different feel, the pullbacks keep getting caught, and the floor around $65,000 keeps holding even as price struggles to clear the next ceiling.
That kind of behavior fits a familiar phase in a damaged market, the part where price stops falling fast, starts moving sideways, and forces both sides to wait.
It also fits the human side of this cycle. Traders remember $60,000 as the panic candle. Long term holders remember the speed of the drop and the silence that followed. Newer investors remember how quickly confidence turned into liquidation.
When price holds above $65,000 after a CPI-driven pop, it gives the crowd something they rarely get after a shock, time.
The weekend floor is the real story, and $65,000 has turned into a barometer
Weekend price action strips markets down to their basics. The order book gets thinner, the headlines slow down, and the only thing that matters is whether buyers actually show up when the chart looks heavy.
Right now, they are showing up.
Bitcoin keeps pressing into the $70,000 area, it keeps bumping into $70,300, and it keeps backing off in slow motion. The important part sits underneath, each dip keeps finding support before it turns into a slide. That support is clustering around $65,000, and it is starting to feel like a line the market respects.
That matters because the last major reference point beneath it is the wick low near $60,000. That zone carries the kind of emotional weight that turns small pullbacks into big reactions. When price hovers in the high $60,000s and low $70,000s, the market starts asking whether another wick revisit is coming.

When price holds through a weekend, the market starts asking a different question, whether the wick already did its job.
A local bottom rarely arrives with a clean announcement. It usually arrives as a change in rhythm.
The rhythm shift looks like this, sellers push, buyers absorb, and price stops traveling as far on each wave. The chart starts building a range instead of building fear. The market starts trading time instead of trading distance.
That is why a stall at $70,300 can still read bullish in context.
A stall becomes valuable when it comes with resilience underneath. It turns resistance into a pressure test. It also turns support into a living level that everyone watches in real time.
It is also worth remembering how $71,500 fits into this.
Last week, Bitcoin kept knocking on that door, and each attempt ran out of oxygen. This week, the market is hesitating earlier, which often shows up when sellers try to defend sooner, and buyers keep stepping in anyway. That dynamic can lead to a breakout later, and it can also lead to more sideways frustration first, especially when traders keep trying to front-run the move
Sideways action has a strange reputation in Bitcoin, because people associate it with boredom. In reality, sideways often marks the most important negotiation in the whole move. It’s where leverage resets, where late sellers finally exit, where patient buyers accumulate, and where the market decides whether the next push has support behind it.
If Bitcoin keeps holding $65,000 while continuing to probe $70,300, the chart starts to look less like a failed bounce and more like a base forming under resistance. That base does not erase the larger cycle debate, but it does change the near-term path.
$71,500 remains the checkpoint, and $60,000 remains the scar tissue
The market still has a clear hierarchy of levels.
$71,500 remains the major checkpoint, because it has already rejected price multiple times since the crash. It is the line where traders decide whether the recovery has real acceptance above it, or whether the move stays trapped in the same band.
$70,300 matters today because it is where the market is stalling right now. It is also close enough to $71,500 to act like a pretest, a place where sellers try to lean early, and where buyers get a preview of how crowded the ceiling is.
$65,000 matters because it is the line Bitcoin keeps defending during thin weekend liquidity. It is the nearest shelf that keeps the chart from sliding into the emotional gravity of the wick.
Then $60,000 sits below everything as the scar tissue level. That wick low created a shared memory, and shared memories create reflexes. Traders tighten stops, holders feel tension, and the market becomes jumpier the closer price gets to that zone.
Bitcoin's sideways action reduces the immediate pressure from that memory. It also gives the market space to do something healthier, to trade sideways and rebuild structure.
This is where the broader cycle story still matters, because a local base can form inside a bigger bearish framework. The market can carve out a range, squeeze shorts, reclaim a level, and still face deeper stress later in the year when liquidity shifts, when risk appetite fades, or when macro conditions tighten again.
My $49,000 bear target still sits in that bigger picture. It remains a plausible destination later this year if the cycle continues to unwind and if risk drains out of the system again. That target belongs to the macro path, the kind of move that comes with fear returning, volatility expanding, and market plumbing showing stress.
Levels to watch, and what “bullish” looks like from here
This setup is simpler than it looks.
A bullish read in the near term looks like continued range building, price holding above key levels, and repeated pressure on $70,300 that eventually leads to another attempt at $71,500. It looks like dips that get bought quickly, and it looks like sellers struggling to push the market into a deeper unwind.
It also looks like patience.
A range can last longer than people expect, especially after a violent move. It can chop up both longs and shorts, and it can frustrate anyone who needs a clean narrative. That frustration often becomes fuel later, because it shakes out leverage and rebuilds a healthier base.
Here is the clean map for the week ahead.
$71,500, the major reclaim line, acceptance above it changes the tone and opens the higher bands.$70,300, today’s stall point, a sustained push above it increases the odds of a fresh $71,500 test.$70,000, the psychological hinge, a level that often decides whether dips stay controlled.$66,900, the mid band shelf, where momentum often resets and where weak moves often fade.$65,000, the weekend barometer, a level that keeps the local bottom thesis intact while it holds.~$60,000, the wick low memory zone, a revisit would likely bring speed and emotion back into the chart.$49,000, the larger cycle bear target, a later-year destination if macro stress returns and risk unwinds further.
What I’m watching when the market moves is also simple.
Speed, does Bitcoin slice through resistance or grind into it. Follow through, does price hold above reclaimed levels long enough for acceptance to form. Reaction, does the market defend support aggressively, or does it give it up in slow motion.
Saturday’s data point so far is clear. Bitcoin is stalling around $70,300, and it is holding above local lows through thin liquidity. That combination leans bullish for a local bottom and a sideways phase, because it suggests demand is active underneath, and sellers are running into absorption.
The bigger cycle still has room for another painful chapter later this year. The near term chart is printing a quieter signal, resilience after a shock.
Disclosure, this is market commentary, financial decisions require personal responsibility and appropriate professional guidance.
#BTC #MarketRebound $BTC #TrendingTopic

XRP price today trades near $1.3551, down 0.54% in the past 24 hours as the token tests critical support following a 33% decline over the past month. The move comes as Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse told XRP enthusiasts the firm has the opportunity to reach a $1 trillion valuation, calling XRP the company’s “reason for existence.”
Garlinghouse Targets $1 Trillion Valuation With XRP Focus
Speaking at XRP Community Day, Garlinghouse said he’s convinced a crypto firm will eventually eclipse the trillion-dollar mark, a feat achieved by only a dozen companies including Nvidia, Apple, and Alphabet. Ripple, currently valued at $40 billion following a $500 million November funding round, would need to increase 25x to reach that milestone.
“Ripple’s reason for existence is driving success around XRP and the XRP ecosystem,” Garlinghouse said, calling the token the firm’s “north star.” The comments come as Ripple focuses on integration rather than new acquisitions in 2026 after spending billions last year on Hidden Road, GTreasury, Rail, and Palisade. Despite the bullish long-term vision, XRP price remains 62% below its $3.56 all-time high from 2025, reflecting the disconnect between corporate ambitions and current market conditions.
Open Interest Falls As Participation Declines

According to Coinglass, XRP’s open interest dropped 1.63% to $2.26 billion, while volume fell 18.53% to $4.01 billion. The decline in both metrics signals reduced trader participation following the recent drawdown from highs above $3.50.
Long/short ratios remain elevated at 2.30 on Binance and 2.13 on OKX, showing that leverage still skews bullish despite the price decline. Top trader positioning shows $18.48 million in longs versus $12.91 million in shorts on 1-hour timeframes, indicating that accounts remain positioned for recovery.
The drop in open interest suggests traders are closing positions rather than adding leverage at current levels. When OI declines alongside falling price, it typically indicates capitulation or reduced conviction. Without a reversal in participation metrics, rallies will lack the fuel needed for sustained moves higher.
Price Breaks Below All Major EMAs

On the daily chart, XRP has broken below every major moving average. The 20-day EMA sits at $1.5495, the 50-day at $1.7613, the 100-day at $1.9641, and the 200-day at $2.1624. All four EMAs are stacked downward, creating a clear resistance ceiling.
The chart shows:
Price breaking below the descending trendline from July highsRSI at 32.11, approaching oversold conditionsSupport zone at $1.35 under immediate pressure$1.50 resistance zone now overhead
XRP lost the $1.50 support that held through early February, opening the door to a retest of the $1.35 psychological level. A daily close below $1.35 would expose the next demand zone near $1.20, where the price found support during prior corrections. RSI approaching 30 suggests the market is nearing oversold conditions, but momentum indicators alone do not guarantee reversal without volume confirmation
A close above $1.5495 would flip the 20-day EMA and signal the first sign of trend exhaustion. Until that happens, the structure remains decisively bearish, with each bounce representing a relief rally inside a corrective phase.
Descending Channel Guides Intraday Action

The 1-hour chart reveals XRP consolidating inside a descending channel pattern, with price testing the lower boundary near $1.3509. Supertrend sits at $1.3934, acting as immediate resistance. MACD remains negative with all lines converging near zero, indicating weak directional momentum.
The structure shows:
Price trapped inside descending channelFailed attempts to break above channel resistanceLower highs forming since February 11
Buyers are attempting to defend the lower channel boundary, but sellers continue to reject rallies at the descending resistance line. A breakout above $1.3934 would flip the Supertrend and place $1.40 back in range. A breakdown below $1.35 would invalidate the channel pattern and trigger another leg down toward $1.30.
The channel compression suggests an imminent move is approaching. Given the downward slope and repeated rejections at resistance, the path of least resistance remains lower unless buyers can reclaim $1.40 with volume.
Outlook: Will XRP Go Up?
The next move depends on whether XRP can hold $1.35 and reclaim the descending channel resistance.
Bullish case: A bounce from $1.35 with a close above $1.40 and the channel resistance would shift momentum and place $1.50 back in range. Reclaiming $1.5495 confirms trend exhaustion.Bearish case: A breakdown below $1.35 exposes $1.30, with further downside toward $1.20 if selling accelerates. Losing $1.35 marks a new multi-month low.
#xrp #TrendingTopic #bullish

A senior executive at Binance France became the target of a coordinated home invasion attempt on February 12, as three masked suspects forced their way into a residential building in Val-de-Marne. Authorities said the group searched for the executive’s apartment while he was away. 
Although they failed to find him, the suspects later carried out a second violent attempt in another suburb before police arrested them in Lyon. The case has raised fresh concerns about security risks facing prominent figures in the cryptocurrency industry.
Suspects Move Across Suburbs
Investigators said the three men entered the Val-de-Marne building around 7 a.m. They first broke into another resident’s apartment while seeking directions. 
Consequently, residents faced an alarming start to their morning. The suspects then located the Binance France chief’s unit. However, they discovered the apartment was empty.
Police sources indicated the group searched the residence and left with two mobile phones. Besides that limited theft, they failed to secure any other valuables. CCTV cameras later linked the suspects to a vehicle seen earlier that morning in the area.
Second Attempt Turns Violent
Significantly, the suspects did not end their actions in Val-de-Marne. Around 9:15 a.m., officers in Hauts-de-Seine received a report of masked men assaulting a woman in Vaucresson. 
Authorities said the attackers struck her with gun butts during another attempted home invasion. Additionally, investigators traced the stolen phones to the same address involved in the earlier break-in.
Witness accounts suggested the group realized they had targeted the wrong residence again. Hence, they fled the scene quickly. Law enforcement agencies across multiple departments coordinated their response. The Paris Organized Crime Unit joined forces with regional police and transport officers.
Arrest at Lyon Station
Moreover, officers tracked the suspects through public transportation networks. Surveillance teams observed them board a train heading to Lyon. Authorities then alerted specialized units in the city. The Lyon intervention brigade intercepted the trio at Lyon Perrache station and placed them into custody.
Officials described the operation as swift and coordinated. Consequently, police prevented further incidents that day. The investigation now continues under the direction of organized crime specialists. Authorities will determine whether the suspects acted independently or targeted cryptocurrency executives deliberately.
#Binance #TrendingTopic

Binance completed the $1 billion Bitcoin conversion for its emergency fund, committing to holding Bitcoin as its core reserve asset.
Binance purchased another $304 million worth of Bitcoin on Thursday, completing the conversion of $1 billion in Bitcoin for its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) wallet, according to Arkham data.

The fund now holds 15,000 Bitcoin, worth over $1 billion, acquired at an average aggregate cost basis of $67,000 per coin, Binance said in a Thursday X post.
 “With SAFU Fund now fully in Bitcoin, we reinforce our belief in BTC as the premier long-term reserve asset.”
The last tranche of BTC came three days after Binance’s previous $300 million acquisition on Monday.
The exchange first announced it would convert its $1 billion user protection fund into Bitcoin on Jan. 30, initially pledging a 30-day window for the acquisitions, which were completed in less than two weeks.
The exchange said it would rebalance the fund if volatility pushes its value below $800 million.
Crypto investor sentiment plunges to lowest levels on record
The conversion comes as broader market sentiment remains deeply negative.
Sentiment took another hit following Bitcoin’s brief correction below $60,000 on Feb. 5, plunging to five on Thursday — the lowest reading on record — signaling extreme fear among investors, according to data from alternative.me.
The index is a multifactorial measure of crypto market sentiment.

The industry’s leading traders by returns, tracked as “smart money,” are also hedging for more crypto market downside.
According to crypto intelligence platform Nansen, smart-money traders held a cumulative $105 million net short position in Bitcoin and were net short across most major cryptocurrencies, with Avalanche the only notable exception, recording $10.5 million in net long exposure.

Bitcoin’s correction also took a significant supply of tokens at a loss equivalent to 16% of Bitcoin’s market cap, marking the highest pain point seen in markets since the implosion of algorithmic stablecoin issuer Terra in May 2022, wrote Glassnode in a Monday X post.
Yet in a silver lining to the correction, the market structure is showing early signs of stabilization, according to Dessislava Ianeva, dispatch analyst at digital asset platform Nexo.
“Derivative positioning remains cautious. Funding rates are neutral to slightly negative, reflecting subdued leverage demand, while open interest in native BTC terms has returned to early-February levels, suggesting stabilization rather than a renewed expansion phase,” the analyst told Cointelegraph.

#BTC #SAFU🙏 #Binance

Bitcoin price could still reach $150,000 by year-end, but several things must happen for BTC price to find its technical footing and spark a new bull run.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin must hold the 200-week SMA and see new-investor flows turn positive.Sidelined capital must flow back into crypto, and the quantum threat needs to be addressed.More rate cuts from the Fed in 2026 will bring risk-on investors back to BTC.

Bitcoin must hold above this key trend line
One condition that has consistently defined Bitcoin’s transition from bear markets to new bull cycles is the price action around the 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, the blue wave).
Historically, this wave has acted as a magnet during deep drawdowns and a solid floor once selling pressure subsides.

In both 2015 and 2018, Bitcoin bottomed near the 200-week SMA before entering multiyear uptrends. The 2022 bear market saw BTC price briefly breaking below it, but the failure proved short-lived.
Bitcoin holding above the 200-week SMA will reduce the odds of a prolonged, 2022-style capitulation, while keeping the path open for a new bull phase.
Bitcoin’s new investor flows must return
Another prerequisite for a sustained bull run is a reversal in new investor flows.
As of February, wallets tracking first-time and short-term holders show roughly $2.7 billion in cumulative outflows, the highest since 2022.

In healthy bull markets, pullbacks attract fresh capital and accelerate participation. However, in the current market, the opposite is happening, according to IT Tech, a CryptoQuant-associated onchain analyst.
“Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal buyers exit and price is driven by internal rotation, not net inflows,” the analyst wrote in a Tuesday post.
In prior cycles, including 2020, 2021 and 2022, sustained bullish reversals only emerged once new-investor flows flipped decisively back into positive territory.

The same must happen in 2026 to make a strong bull case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETF net flows turned positive on Monday, which could be a first sign that these investor flows are starting to come back.
Sidelined Tether must flow back into crypto
Tether’s (USDT) share of the total crypto market has risen in recent weeks to test a familiar 8.5%–9.0% resistance zone.
Rising USDT dominance means investors are parking money in stablecoins and avoiding risk. Falling dominance usually signals the opposite: capital rotating back into Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Since November 2022, clear pullbacks from this 8%–9% area have aligned with strong Bitcoin rebounds.
One rejection was followed by a 76% rally over 140 days, while another preceded 169% gains over 180 days. A similar setup occurred from 2020 to 2022, when the key ceiling sat near 4.5%–5.75%.
USDT dominance broke above that range in May 2022, and Bitcoin then fell by 45%, further reflecting the inverse correlation between the two.
As a result, Tether dominance must fall to start a new Bitcoin bull run.
Quantum fears must subside
Another headwind to overcome for Bitcoin is the potential quantum threat. These are theories that future quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s cryptography, putting BTC wallets at risk.
Some note that 25% of Bitcoin addresses are already at risk.
Several security-focused sources frame this as a threat that is still far off in the future.
For example, in November 2025, cryptographer and Blockstream CEO Adam Back said Bitcoin faces no meaningful quantum threat for “20 to 40 years,” adding the network can be “quantum ready” well before it becomes a real problem.
Bitcoin Optech also noted that near-term quantum risk would be concentrated in edge cases, such as reused addresses, rather than the entire network at once.
For Bitcoin to build a bull case in 2026, this threat must be addressed for buyers to regain confidence.
Doing just that, Coinbase and Strategy have launched initiatives, bringing in experts and mapping out a roadmap for Bitcoin security upgrades.

More rate cuts by the Fed
Bitcoin’s chances of re-entering a bull cycle in 2026 improve if the US Federal Reserve delivers at least two rate cuts next year, which is what CME futures pricing was currently implying as of February.

Lower rates generally reduce the appeal of yield-bearing assets like U.S. Treasurys, pushing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. That shift tends to favor risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.
Donald Trump may push the new Fed chair for three rate cuts in 2026, according to Lee Ferridge, strategist at State Street Corp.
Three rate cuts this year may further increase Bitcoin’s appeal among risk traders.
#BTC #TrendingTopic

Yes, theoretically, you can imagine a chain of unbelievable coincidences, aggressive risk-taking, and pure luck. But in reality, that path almost always ends with a blown account long before any meaningful growth happens.

However, most people who enter this field genuinely believe they’ll be the exception. They’re convinced it will work out for them. Social media plays a big role in this — the way trading is presented: a glamorous lifestyle, freedom, expensive cars, travel, and supposedly all you have to do is press “buy” or “sell.”
The answer — You can’t.
It creates the illusion of simplicity.
But the market isn’t a button. It’s ca ompetition.

Chasing massive returns, people start trading low-liquidity, questionable assets. They increase leverage, go all-in on their account, and ignore stop losses. Risk management turns into a myth told by some crazy guy on the street, and their mental state starts resembling that of the same person preaching about discipline. Every trade becomes a casino bet.

First comes excitement.
Then euphoria from a random win.
Then aggression after a loss.
And finally — the urge to “win it back.”

And that’s exactly when the account starts melting the fastest.

💡 The truth is, a successful trader isn’t someone who makes 100x in a month.
A successful trader is someone who earns consistently.

Generating 10–14% per month with proper risk management is an extremely strong result. Most professional fund managers don’t even come close to delivering that consistently over time.

With a $300,000 account — that’s a solid income you can live on.
With $100 — that’s ice cream money. And that’s okay.

📌 Now the important part.

If you want to start trading and you have $300 — great. Set it aside. But treat it not as a “life-changing opportunity,” but as tuition.

A small account should not be a gambling tool.
It should be a discipline-building tool.
It should be a system-testing tool.
It should be a habit-forming tool.

With a deposit like that, you learn to:
• respect risk per trade;
• accept losses calmly;
• avoid increasing size after a loss;
• stay out of the market when bored;
• follow rules even when emotions scream otherwise.

📈 If you can’t trade $300 consistently and with discipline, you won’t trade $30,000 successfully either. Not only profits scale, but mistakes scale too.

❗ And if you quit your job with a $300 account to “fully dedicate yourself to trading,” you should probably go back.

Trading doesn’t like pressure.
When you need to pay rent, cover loans, and buy food, you start making decisions out of fear instead of following your system.

And fear and the market are a bad combination.

First — stable income outside the market.
Then — stability on a small account.
Then — capital growth.

Enjoy!

Changpeng Zhao aka @CZ has revealed that he sold his Shanghai apartment for roughly $900,000 to purchase Bitcoin $BTC during a major market downturn in 2014, despite not having a stable job at the time.
According to Zhao, his conviction in Bitcoin developed after first encountering the asset in 2013. He spent about six months studying the Bitcoin white paper and engaging with early community members before deciding to commit capital. However, by the time he felt fully convinced, Bitcoin had already surged from around $70 to above $1,000 in late 2013.

Shortly afterward, the market corrected. As Bitcoin fell toward $400 in early 2014, Zhao chose to sell his apartment and invest the proceeds in the asset. He described averaging purchases of around $600 before the deeper drop, ultimately increasing exposure as prices declined further.
Conviction Over Career Stability
At the time of the purchase, Zhao had already decided to leave his previous role and pursue opportunities within the Bitcoin industry. He later joined Blockchaindotinfo (now Blockchaindotcom) as one of its early team members before moving on to other exchange roles.
Zhao said the decision was driven by his belief that Bitcoin represented one of the biggest technological innovations of his lifetime, comparable to the early internet. He viewed the risk as asymmetric, limited downside relative to long-term potential upside.
From Early Risk to Global Exchange
The high-conviction bet came years before Zhao founded Binance in 2017. What began as early industry experimentation, including exchange infrastructure development and trading system architecture, eventually evolved into one of the world’s largest crypto trading platforms.
Zhao’s account addresses the risk tolerance and capital concentration that characterized many early Bitcoin adopters. While the long-term value of that purchase fluctuated through multiple market cycles, Zhao’s move remains one of the more notable examples of early executive-level conviction in Bitcoin’s formative years.
#CZAMAonBinanceSquare #CZ

PIPPIN surged more than 27% in the past 24 hours, rising to around $0.50, even as the broader cryptocurrency market remained flat. The strong move has placed PIPPIN among the top-performing tokens of the day.
The factors behind the rally are the rapid increase in online discussions and social media engagement, which has attracted fresh retail participation. Higher visibility often leads to increased buying activity in meme coins, and PIPPIN has seen a noticeable jump in mentions, engagement, and overall “mindshare” across social platforms.

PIPPIN is also positioned within the AI-agent and Solana ecosystem narratives, two sectors currently attracting growing investor attention, adding to the token’s momentum.
Volume Surge Supports Breakout
Trading volume climbed to nearly $70 million, helping the token break above the important resistance level near $0.436, which has now become an important support area around $0.45. The token has moved out of a previous downward trend, opening the possibility for further upside if buying pressure continues.
However, visible development updates, new product announcements, or major ecosystem activity around the token have been limited recently. This has led to speculation that the rally is being driven primarily by trading behavior, speculative demand, and chart momentum, rather than long-term technological progress.
One commentary claims that a well-capitalized investor or group may control a large portion of the token’s circulating supply, potentially allowing them to influence liquidity and price direction. 
Another wrote, “Feels like momentum is being engineered — push it up, attract FOMO, distribute into strength, take profit. I’m not chasing.”
What Comes Next?
Technically, PIPPIN has broken out, marking the big structural shift after a downtrend. 

Experts are now watching several key levels:
$0.45 — Immediate support$0.56 — First resistance$0.76 — Higher bullish target if momentum continues$0.15 region — Major long-term support if the rally fails
While the sharp rally has placed PIPPIN among the top-performing meme coins of the day, market data suggests the move may be driven more by leveraged trading activity than by strong long-term fundamentals.
$PIPPIN #Pippin

At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the market received two stories wrapped inside one jobs report.

The first was immediate and straightforward: Nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, unemployment held at 4.3%, and wages climbed 0.4% month over month to $37.17, up 3.7% year over year. That is not recessionary data. It is steady, firm, and just strong enough to keep inflation concerns alive.

The second story required scrolling.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued a substantial annual benchmark revision, cutting the March 2025 job count by 898,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis and lowering the entire 2025 trendline. In effect, the labor market of last year was not as strong as previously believed.

Bitcoin now sits precisely between those two narratives.
The First Reaction: Higher Yields, Lower BTC
Markets trade the present first.

Following the latest release, Treasury yields seem to move higher. The 10-year rose toward 4.20% from roughly 4.15%. CME FedWatch probabilities for a March rate cut collapsed from around 22% to near 6%. The repricing was immediate: cuts are less likely in the near term if labor and wages remain firm.

Bitcoin responded accordingly, slipping roughly 3% toward the $66,900 region.

This reaction is not emotional — it is mechanical.

Higher yields raise the discount rate applied to all risk assets. Bitcoin, now deeply embedded in macro portfolios, is no longer insulated from rate sensitivity. When the cost of money rises, liquidity tightens. When liquidity tightens, speculative positioning contracts first. Bitcoin tends to feel that compression early.

Wage growth is particularly relevant. At 3.7% year over year, earnings growth keeps inflation “sticky” in the conversation. A patient Federal Reserve becomes the base case. Patience means rates stay restrictive for longer. Restrictive conditions mean liquidity remains scarce relative to the easing cycle that traders have been anticipating.

That is timeline one.
Insight: A Slower Economy Beneath the Surface
The downward revision of almost 900,000 jobs for March 2025 significantly shifts the historical trajectory of the labor market. Investors base their forward-looking assessments on the strength of existing trends. If that trend was overstated, then the resilience narrative weakens.

Revisions are often more important than headlines. They change how investors interpret the durability of growth.

If 2025 job creation was softer than believed, then the economy may have been decelerating earlier than markets assumed. That opens the door to a future sequence where hiring cools more visibly in upcoming reports. If that cooling materializes, rate cuts re-enter the picture faster.

Bitcoin does not react only to today’s payroll print. It reacts to the evolving probability distribution of future liquidity.

This is where the tension lies: a firm January versus a softer 2025 baseline.
Macro Wiring: Why Bitcoin Cares So Much
Bitcoin’s macro sensitivity has matured than before

In earlier cycles, crypto industry was largely reflexive — driven by some main narratives, retail flows, and internal leverage dynamics. Today, it sits alongside equities and bonds in institutional portfolios. For example, ETFs, derivatives markets, and cross-asset allocation strategies have linked BTC directly to global liquidity conditions.

The transmission mechanism works like this:

1. Strong data → yields rise.
2. Yields rise → financial conditions tighten.
3. Tighter conditions → leverage reduces.
4. Reduced leverage → BTC feels pressure.

This week’s open interest data supports that mechanism. Bitcoin derivatives open interest has contracted to roughly $44.7 billion, down sharply from peaks above $80 billion. That decline signals deleveraging.

Spot flows of BTC reinforce the defensive posture. We can see that persistent net outflows across months, including a $122 million net outflow on February 11, suggest distribution rather than accumulation.

Liquidity is not flowing in aggressively. It is stepping back.
Technical Structure: Compression Under Resistance
Technically, Bitcoin is at a pivotal inflection. After price rejecting near the $97,970 swing high, BTC retraced deeply and found macro support near $60,104. The rebound from that level was meaningful, but structurally incomplete.

Price now trades below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $69,040 — immediate resistance. This level acts as the first breakout trigger. A decisive reclaim of $69,000 would open a path toward $74,569 (0.382 retracement) and potentially $79,037 (0.5 retracement), which would signal broader structural repair.

Until that occurs, lower highs define the 4-hour structure.

The Donchian Channel shows price hugging the lower boundary — not aggressively bearish, but not strong. Meanwhile, the ADX, which previously signaled strong downtrend momentum, is cooling and momentum compression often precedes expansion.

The key is confirmation of the correction phase. Without volume expansion and renewed inflows, upside attempts may stall under resistance.
Three Plausible Paths Forward
From here, three macro-technical paths emerge.

1. Higher for Longer

Jobs remain steady and Wage growth persists. If Inflation cools slowly -> The Fed delays cuts.

In this environment, yields remain elevated. Bitcoin rallies struggle under big macro pressure. Range-bound or corrective behavior dominates until liquidity expectations shift.

2. Slowdown Materializes

Revisions prove to be the early signal of broader deceleration. Hiring softens. Inflation moderates more decisively. Cut expectations, move forward.

Under this path, Bitcoin benefits from improving liquidity outlook. A sustained reclaim of $69,000 could trigger relief rallies toward $74,500 and potentially $79,000 as positioning rebuilds.

3. A Soft Landing with Noise

The US economy gradually cools without breaking itself. If that happens -> Cuts arrive, but later than markets initially hoped. Volatility remains elevated around each data release.

This environment favors, therefore, tactical trading rather than trend conviction. Bitcoin chops between macro support near $60,000 and resistance near $74,000 until clarity emerges.
The Liquidity Trap Question
There is a deeper structural concern embedded in this debate: liquidity traps.

If growth appears strong enough to delay easing but underlying conditions are weakening, financial markets can experience a squeeze. Liquidity expectations pull forward and backward rapidly, destabilizing positioning. Bitcoin’s high beta makes it sensitive to that instability.

The recent deleveraging in derivatives may be a preemptive adjustment to that risk.
What to Watch Next
Two calendar events matter most:

1. The upcoming CPI release.
2. The March 6 employment report.

If inflation cools while labor remains stable, risk assets can stabilize. If inflation reaccelerates alongside firm wages, rate cut odds will compress further, pressuring Bitcoin below current support bands.

On the downside, $65,000–$66,000 is the first demand zone. Below that, $60,104 remains the macro line. A decisive break under $60,000 could accelerate downside momentum.

On the upside scenario, $69,000 is the pivot point. BTC must flip from resistance to support to alter the short-term bias.

Insights - A Market Holding Two Truths

Bitcoin price today reflects a market holding two truths simultaneously.

The present labor data seems to support patience from the Federal Reserve. The revised past suggests underlying softness.

Bitcoin is not reacting to one headline. It is reacting to the probability that liquidity may remain constrained longer than expected — or loosen sooner than believed.

For now, price compresses beneath resistance while leverage contracts and spot flows hesitate. That combination suggests caution, not capitulation.

The next expansion move — higher or lower — will likely come not from crypto-native narratives, but from the evolving shape of yields and rate expectations.

Bitcoin remains a liquidity instrument.

And liquidity is still being debated.
#BTC #bearishmomentum