Reserve Risk Indicators integrate key metrics like VOCD, MVOCD, and Signal. This composite chart visualizes the confidence among long-term Bitcoin holders relative to its current price, guiding investment decisions.

Calculating Reserve Risk involves steps such as Bitcoin Days Destroyed (BDD) and Adjusted Bitcoin Days Destroyed (ABDD), which normalize for Bitcoin's circulating supply. Other metrics included in the chart are Value of Coin (Days) Destroyed (VOCD), calculated as VOCD = ∑ (Daily Bitcoin price * Adjusted BDD), and MVOCD, which is a median of VOCD to smooth the data. These metrics reflect accumulated confidence among holders over time, aiding in identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities.

Historical analysis shows that low Reserve Risk periods have historically yielded outsized returns, underscoring its relevance in assessing market sentiment and investor behavior.

Historically, when MVOCD exceeds Bitcoin's price, it signals resistance and the formation of local tops. The most recent bearish signal occurred from late March to early April 2024, and since then, Bitcoin has not reached new highs.

An interesting fact to note is that from 2017 to early 2018, there were two bearish signals, and in 2021, the bearish signal appeared before the historical peak. Thus, while this combination of metrics is effective, it is still possible to see new all-time highs, depending on how blockchain data adjusts according to long-term investors' behavior. For now, the current peak at $73,800 is defined as the historical maximum for 2024.

Written by joaowedson

New Negative Netflow for Derivative Exchange

A negative value indicates reserves are decreasing.

A negative value leads to decreasing reserves for opening new short positions.

Written by Amr Taha

Inverse Relationship:

There appears to be an inverse relationship between Bitcoin's price and miner reserves. As the price of Bitcoin increases, miner reserves tend to decrease, and vice versa.

Price Peak and Reserve Decline:

The peak in Bitcoin's price around March 2024 corresponds with a significant decline in miner reserves. This could suggest that miners are selling off their reserves to capitalize on the high prices.

This chart is valuable for understanding how miner behavior (in terms of holding or selling Bitcoin) might influence market prices and can be used to make informed decisions. As you can see, miner reserves are decreasing, which means the bull market is still ongoing.

Written by Amr Taha

A short-term holder indicated that Bitcoin was carried at a loss when it fell below 1 during the last decline.

After falling below the level of 1 for intraday trading, if we remain above the MA34 simultaneously, we have reached a possible reaction zone. The short-term holder suggested that we have entered a potential reaction area during panic selling.

The price showed support at 66k, resulting in a short-term 6% increase.

At 1.01, selling pressure began, leading to an increase. Since the price is within this range, it may continue to face stress pressure. The best buying opportunities in a bull trend are within the range of 0.95-0.90.

Wait for a break below 1 for intraday trading, wait for the green area for a little longer.

Thanks for reading.

Written by XBTManager

frustrating sideways movement of the price chart has been ongoing for a long time, and market interest is declining.

The funding rates, which used to react significantly to even small price movements, now show no movement.

This situation is the best time for futures whales to accumulate new positions.

Open interest has been increasing rapidly since the end of May.

Futures whales provide strong volatility to the market.

Written by Mignolet

At this point, we have reached a 4 year low in the number of Bitcoin reserves on exchanges.

Funds have accumulated a total of over 1,000,000 BTC to provide Bitcoin ETFs, the best part is that this is just the beginning!

Federal Reserve rates are still just as high, it's only a matter of time before the money supply bursts into another huge bubble.

1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin

∞ Money Printing = Eternal Bitcoin Growth

Written by Kirill Evans

The True Market Mean Price (TMMP) indicator, combined with the AVIV Ratio, represents an innovative approach to evaluating the average price of digital assets, particularly effective for Bitcoin. Unlike the Realized Price, which assesses the value of assets based on their acquisition prices, the TMMP uses a methodology that considers market dynamics and investor behavior over time.

The True Market Mean Price (TMMP) is calculated by dividing the difference between the Realized Market Cap and the Thermo Market Cap by the time-weighted active supply (Active Supply). This formula provides a measure that reflects the digital asset's average market price, considering both historical transactions and the current circulating supply.

The AVIV Ratio complements the TMMP by comparing the active market valuation with the realized valuation, highlighting significant discrepancies that may indicate investment opportunities or risks. This metric, developed to provide a deeper understanding of Bitcoin's market behavior, has proven to be a robust tool for analysts and investors seeking to understand and anticipate price trends in the cryptocurrency market.

Some important considerations: when the AVIV Ratio turns yellow or red, Bitcoin encounters resistance, signaling that investors are distributing their coins and the cycle's peak is near.

Written by joaowedson

What Do Hash Ribbons Indicate?

Hash ribbons are a technical indicator that analyzes the health of the Bitcoin mining ecosystem by examining the hash rate and its moving averages. When the hash rate falls significantly, it often signals miner capitulation, where miners stop mining due to decreased profitability. Conversely, when the hash rate recovers, it can indicate a period of miner recovery and potential price strength.

Current Market Analysis

Following the recent Bitcoin halving, we have observed nearly a month of challenging conditions for miners. Despite these difficulties, the price has shown remarkable resilience, avoiding sustained downward movements. Historically, such periods, especially during the summer months, have led to notable price volatility driven by miner actions. However, in the current scenario, miners alone do not appear to have the power to significantly influence the price.

Market Resilience

The ongoing demand for Bitcoin is playing a crucial role in maintaining price stability. Even though miner capitulation typically exerts downward pressure on prices, the strong market demand is preventing significant price declines. This indicates that the market is currently robust, with sufficient buying interest to absorb selling pressure from miners.

Conclusion

The analysis of hash ribbons and the current market dynamics suggest that despite the challenges faced by miners post-halving, the Bitcoin market remains strong. The sustained demand is a positive indicator of market resilience and strength, highlighting that the current price stability is supported by more than just miner activity.

This period demonstrates the market's ability to maintain a solid foundation even amidst potential adversities, indicating a strong and healthy Bitcoin ecosystem.

Written by Kripto Mevsimi

1⃣ Short-Term Holder (STH) Activity:

STHs are moving their BTC to exchanges, as shown by the net profit/loss chart. This behavior suggests that STHs sold in panic when the price dropped. As you can see, they sold at a loss.

2⃣ BTC Inflows to Accumulation Addresses:

While STHs were selling at a loss, long-term investors were buying the dip, as shown by the large amount of Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses on June 11.

✅ Summary:

Next time, consider whether it's worth selling at a loss and giving your Bitcoins to someone else, especially in a bull market.

A lot of people think this way: "It's falling, so I'll sell now and buy back lower." Believe me, it doesn't work. I tested it myself in the last bull market. Often, doing nothing is the best option. 🧠

If you liked this post, please leave a like 💙, comment, and follow my profile 👉 @IT_Tech_PL on X.

Written by IT Tech

More than 20,000 Bitcoin flow to whale wallets. It appears that the whales took advantage of yesterday’s correction in Bitcoin and accumulated additional quantities.

The whales seem to have capitalized on yesterday’s Bitcoin correction and increased their holdings.

Written by abramchart

After Bitcoin recently failed to surpass $72,000, the investment sentiment of market participants is dying.

The number of Bitcoin active addresses indicates how many wallets are actively transferring coins. After reaching a peak in March, it has decreased significantly due to Bitcoin's correction and sideways movement over a period of about three months.

Bitcoin is like this, but the sentiment of altcoin investors, who have recently been sluggish, is bound to be even worse.

It is difficult to know the exact time, but the end of the adjustment period usually occurs when the psychology of market participants has significantly decreased, as it does now.

Ultimately, if Bitcoin sets a major direction first, altcoins will also move accordingly in the second half of 2024.

Written by Crypto Dan

The Largest Ethereum Outflow of the Year from Coinbase (336K+): What Does It Mean?

What’s behind this outflow exceeding $1 billion in value?

The 5th Withdrawal Exceeding 150K

Analyzing Coinbase's 2024 data, we can observe that this is the 5th time more than 150,000 Ethereum has been withdrawn from the exchange.

These large transactions (made in a single day) range between $400 million and $1.1 billion each, it's overly optimistic to think that individual investors are behind them. It’s highly likely that these significant Ethereum withdrawals are driven by whales or as-yet-unknown institutions.

If it's not an internal movement (exchanges sometimes do this), we have a quite positive indicator for the long term.

✅Comment

Although the significant Ethereum withdrawal from Coinbase is noteworthy, the exact reason behind it and its impact on the market remains unclear.

However, we observed similar activities on Coinbase before the trading of Bitcoin Spot ETFs began. The withdrawal valued at $1.17 billion on June 12, 2024, might be driven by whales or institutions anticipating an increase in Ethereum prices alongside the introduction of Spot ETFs.

Whether this assumption is correct will become clear in the coming days. However, such movements that reduce the circulating supply (high demand) are expected to have a positive impact on the price in the medium to long term.

Written by burakkesmeci

Tomorrow we have huge news events. These events are critical for financial markets, especially the ones related to the US Federal Reserve and CPI data, as they can significantly influence market movements. The Federal Reserve (Fed) might decide to keep the Federal Funds Rate unchanged.

The chart shows the Bitcoin price crossing below the UTXO age bands for Short-Term Holders (1d - 1w) and Medium-Term Holders (1w - 1m). This intersection might indicate a period of increased selling activity from short-term holders. This could be associated with market corrections or panic selling during price volatility.

The interactions between the Bitcoin price and the 1-week to 1-month UTXO age band highlight the impact of short-term holders on the market. Periods where the price intersects with this band can indicate points of increased market activity, where recent buyers may be more likely to sell their holdings.

These intersections can serve as indicators of market sentiment. When the price drops below the UTXO age band, it may signal bearish sentiment and increased selling pressure. Conversely, when the price rises above it, it could indicate bullish sentiment and accumulation by recent buyers.

The highlighted sections often coincide with price corrections.

These moments are critical for understanding market dynamics and potential future price movements, as they reflect the behavior of a substantial portion of market participants.

Written by Amr Taha

Seeing Bitmex OI rapidly rising while Binance OI is decreasing in speed.

Often this kind of phenomenon is seen when whales in Bitmex start to accumulate positions while Binance retail gets washed out.

If we get a turnover from this dip, it could signal a LTF bottom is in.

Written by BQYoutube

1. Dealers:.

- often referred to as market makers, provide liquidity in the futures

market.

- Dealers hedge their own books to manage the risk associated with

providing liquidity to clients. This might involve taking short positions

to offset potential losses from other positions they hold.

2. Asset Managers:.

- Asset managers handle investments on behalf of clients, which

include mutual funds, pension funds, and other institutional investors.

Their primary goal is to achieve a favorable return on investment for

their clients.

- Asset managers use futures to hedge against potential downturns in their

investment portfolios. For instance, short positions in futures can offset losses in

the underlying assets.

3. Hedge Funds:.

- Hedge funds are investment funds that engage in more aggressive and complex

strategies to generate high returns. They often use leverage, derivatives, and other

speculative strategies.

4. Non-Reportable:.

- Retail investors and individual traders who trade futures for personal investment or

speculation.

CME Futures Long/Short Position Largest Changes:

1 contract = (5 Bitcoins)

Hedge Funds:

- Long positions decreased from 15.3k to 7.7k (May 28 to June 4, 2024).

- Short positions decreased from 42.3k to 39.7k (May 28 to June 4, 2024).

Dealers:

- Short positions decreased from 6.4k to 3.8k (May 28 to June 4, 2024).

*Keep in mind hedge funds held 22k short positions opened since last month (hedge funds are totally bearish).

Written by Amr Taha

With Ethereum's price struggling to surpass the $4K mark, traders might be interested in the behavior of futures market participants. The chart below shows the 7-day moving average of the Taker Buy Sell Ratio, which assesses the relative aggressiveness of buyers versus sellers. A value above one suggests buyer dominance, while a value below one indicates aggressive selling.

As illustrated in the chart, the ratio has failed to rise above one and has been declining sharply in recent days. This trend suggests that the majority of futures traders have been selling Ethereum aggressively, either for speculative purposes or to realize profits. This significant drop in the metric is a bearish signal, suggesting that the current downward retracement could persist if this trend continues.

Written by ShayanBTC

- Interpretation:.

- Increased Open Interest (Green):.

Suggests more traders are opening new positions, which can lead to higher

volatility. If the price is rising, this could indicate bullish sentiment. However, if

many traders are opening short positions, it could also indicate bearish sentiment.

- Decreased Open Interest (Red):.

Suggests that traders are closing their positions, which can also lead to high

volatility. If the price is dropping, this could indicate bearish sentiment, but if

traders are closing short positions, it might indicate the end of a bearish trend.

- The funding rates show fluctuations, particularly around periods of significant

price changes. Red shaded areas highlight periods where the funding rates might

be indicating a shift in market sentiment (second graph).

-Strategy Suggestions:.

Monitoring Open Interest:.

By keeping an eye on the changes in open interest, traders can gauge market sentiment and potential volatility.

Risk Management:.

During periods of significant changes in open interest, it's crucial to manage risk appropriately, potentially adjusting stop-loss levels or taking profits.

Trend Confirmation:.

Use changes in open interest in conjunction with other indicators (like funding rates on the second chart) to confirm trends and make more informed trading decisions.

Written by Amr Taha

The analysis of Exchange Depositing Transactions charts indicates an increase in investors' interest in the market. The number of Depositing Transactions has experienced a spike in recent days, reaching over 107 thousand transactions on March 4th, which is nearly the highest value since 2022. Meanwhile, the Exchange Netflow (Total) chart shows an increase in Bitcoin outflows from exchanges. These could indicate the market's inclination towards continuing the upward trend in the coming months.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Significant Events:

- January 2023: A large spike in the taker buy/sell ratio correlates with

the beginning of an upward trend in the Bitcoin price.

- May 2023: Another spike is observed, followed by a significant price

increase, indicating that aggressive buying activity likely contributed

to the upward price movement.

- August 2023: A similar pattern is seen, where a spike in the taker

buy/sell ratio precedes a price increase.

- June 2024: The most recent spike in the taker buy/sell ratio is

accompanied by a corresponding increase in the Bitcoin price,

suggesting continued aggressive buying behavior.

Written by Amr Taha

The price is likely to show more fluctuations this week.

We are entering the Fed week, and Bitcoin inflows to the derivatives side are taking place. We cannot determine the direction for these, but it indicates that it will be a very volatile week.

Possible volatility will continue until the outflows of these Bitcoins are realized.

High risks should be avoided this week, and more hedged positions should be taken.

Written by XBTManager