OTC Weekly Trading Insights (02/03/2022): BTC holds the range…
In anticipation of the FOMC meeting midweek the market has seen some wild swings in both directions, with BTC being more active than usual last Sunday.
Despite the altcoin market slightly ‘cooling off’ this week, we have still seen a sustained buying interest across our convert portal for the majority of the coins.
$FTM has been one of the top performers this week with the coin currently up nearly 48%, as trading volume rocketed 253% with buying volume considerably higher than selling.
Fundamentally nothing has changed for FTM, but it is clear to see it is trading in a strong bullish uptrend for the time being. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday initially drove price up alongside the rest of the market, contributing most of the weekly gains for FTM.
$GALA traded in a similar fashion this week, currently up over 13% as it remains in its upwards channel. Trading volume on the Convert Portal increased over 77% as speculators remain optimistic expecting price to continue its drive higher.
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Convert Portal Volume Breakdown
BTC overall has traded within a steady range the past 2 weeks, with most of the action taking place on the altcoin market.
Our Convert Portal transaction list remains the same again this week, stablecoin swaps have topped the list with a value of 31.46% increasing 1.38% from last. Usually when the market is trading in a range bound environment, we expect to see higher values closer to 40%.
Crypto to stablecoin transaction came in 2nd with a value of 24.38%, as to be expected with the market traded range bound after a series of aggressive upside movements, participants will average out of positions locking in any profits.
Stablecoin to Crypto transactions placed 3rd again this week decreasing 1.21%, speculators continue to average into positions to look to capitalise on further movement to the upside.
Overall market technicals
BTC
Following BTC’s rapid expansion, we have seen a series of short term ranges form followed by further movement to the upside.
The range we identified in last week's report has held for slightly longer compared to the previous ones. Last Sunday BTC saw more volatility than usual as we attempted to break above the range, however was short lived as if it swiftly returned.
The start of the week was relatively quiet in anticipation of the FOMC meeting, however come wednesday we saw BTC move back to the upside where it has successfully held the previous resistance now turned support.
The FED’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 BPS, triggered a short-term risk on effect as the markets rose with BTC and ETH increasing 3% intraday.
As its stands BTC is hovering above the previous resistance at $23,400, for price to move further to the upside this level will need to hold allowing price to continue in an upwards trajectory.
Alternatively, if the new support level fails to hold we are likely to see BTC return within the range deciding on its next move.
FTM
FTM has been one of the strongest performing coins of the year showing no signs of slowing down.
Looking at the chart the coin has seen rapid expansion with very little pullbacks, as it moved violently to the upside.
Currently it appears to be trading in a form of consolidation gearing up for its next move. If we continue to the upside, we will be targeting previous 2022 levels (currently out of picture).
Alternatively, if price retraces we would like a see a movement back towards the trendline where we want to see this hold continuing to act as support.
Macro at a glance
On Monday the 30th, there was a series of European News drivers:
Germany had a contraction in GDP as growth YoY was 0.5% vs 0.8% estimated, down 1.3% reported last quarter.
Spain reported a higher than expected inflation figure, 5.8% an increase of 0.1% compared to the previous month.
As a result global markets traded lower, trickling down into the crypto space as the market sold off.
Wednesday the 3rd, FOMC decided to raise the US interest rate by 25 bps, as the market anticipated. Powell hinted at signs of continuing rate hikes as the battle to lower inflation (back to 2%) continues. After the press, US dollar index was down almost 1%, and the market turned to risk-on mode. The better-than-expected earning report from Meta fuels this optimism more. BTC & ETH are both up over 3% after the press, and altcoins are rallying further.
Friday the 3rd, NFP came in at 517k vs 185k estimate alongside the unemployment rate of 3.5% (0.1% decrease compared to last month). Prior to the US equity market opening, BTC sharply fell just shy of 1% with the dollar index rallying.
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