Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee gave a crucial interview on Friday, February 13, 2026, offering a mixed "encouraging and concerning" outlook on the economy. His standout comment? He’s hopeful that the inflationary shock from tariffs has finally topped out.
🔍 The "Mixed Bag" Breakdown
Tariffs & Goods: Goolsbee noted that goods prices appear to be stabilizing despite the recent wave of tariffs. He expressed hope that we are past the "peak impact" and that these price hikes will prove temporary.
The "Supercore" Headache: While goods are cooling, Goolsbee is "worrisome" about services inflation. He described it as "persistent" and "not yet tamed," noting that the economy is currently "stuck around 3%"—well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Rates Outlook: He believes interest rates "can still go down a fair bit more," but emphasized that the Fed isn't on a pre-set path. Any further cuts are strictly conditional on seeing actual progress in the services sector.
📊 Why This Matters for Crypto (
$BTC )
Goolsbee’s comments reflect a "data-dependent" Fed that isn't in a rush to pivot:
Dovish Lean, Hawkish Guardrails: His openness to more rate cuts is generally bullish for crypto. However, his insistence on seeing "actual improvement" rather than just anticipating it means the market might have to wait until the May FOMC meeting for a major move.
Dollar Index (DXY) Reaction: Following the CPI data and Goolsbee’s remarks, the Dollar saw a modest dovish repricing. A weakening Dollar usually acts as a "tail breeze" for Bitcoin.
Inflation Hedge Narrative: If inflation remains "stuck" at 3% as Goolsbee fears, the narrative for Bitcoin as a store of value against fiat debasement gains more mainstream traction.
💡 The Takeaway
Goolsbee is essentially saying the Fed has "room to move," but they are waiting for the services sector to catch up to the cooling goods sector. The "Tariff Peak" is a relief, but the "Services Plateau" is the new enemy.
Do you think the Fed will cut in March, or are we stuck with "higher for longer" until May? 👇
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