ملف CryptoGoat10 الشخصي

PINNED

--

Macroeconomics Rules Bitcoin — and You Need to Understand ThatMuch has been said about the recent #BTC halving and how it would bring a strong appreciation to the cryptocurrency. Many ideas, predictions, projections and expectations were sold to investors and BTC holders, but that’s not what actually happened. But after all, are we living in a bull market? Have we reached a “fair” price level in Bitcoin’s supply and demand? What does the future hold for the currency? This text aims not only to bring you the current crypto landscape, but also to project—based on real data and context—what we can expect going forward. ⸻ 1 — So let’s get to it. Are we living in a bull market? Yes, we are in the middle of a Bull Market, but no, it hasn’t arrived for #BTC yet. When we look at the financial market as a whole, we MUST understand that the economy is dynamic, global and diversified. In other words, there is something above investors and above the whales, and that is the global economy. Today, we are living through a period of global disinflation, falling interest rates and the recovery of the world’s main economies. In this environment, shouldn’t Bitcoin have appreciated as promised? Maybe — but global markets follow an investment cycle that hasn’t changed and will never change. When major economies price their interest rates at more attractive levels, it’s natural for the “holders of capital” to allocate their money there. If the U.S. government decides to pay investors 5% per year in the strongest currency in the world, large investment funds tend to concentrate their allocations in risk-free assets. Since money is finite, it’s normal that during periods like this the economy cools down — and risk assets such as crypto, stocks, emerging markets and private credit also depreciate. This is basic market behavior; we call it the “Risk Premium” — the higher the base interest rate, the higher the return I start demanding from each risky asset I hold. This reminds me of something I used to hear when I worked at a major hedge fund: “The real Bull Market is when the supermarket cashier, the taxi driver and your boss are all talking about stocks.” The same applies to crypto. ⸻ 2 — What about supply vs. demand? As we all know, BTC supply is scarce — there is a hard limit on how many coins can ever be issued. Demand for the asset has been growing, but as mentioned earlier, there are still other asset classes that need to appreciate first. Today, capital has been flowing from major economies into risk assets — and we can track that through ETFs and global stock markets over the past 12 months, measured in USD: • IEI — US Treasury 3–7y: 3.51% • LQD — Investment Grade Corporate Bonds: 7.32% • IVV — S&P 500 Large Caps: 17.09% • BBEU — Developed Europe Markets: 29.72% • FXI — China 50: 31.52% • ILF — Latin America Top 40: 51.47% In other words, we can clearly see money flowing into risk assets — but many economies, especially emerging ones, still face high interest rates and inflation. The performance of these same asset classes after the 2009–2010 crisis was at least 2.12× greater than what we’ve seen this year. ⸻ 3 — What does the future look like, and what should we expect from this halving? Bitcoin is already consolidated — that is a fact. But this time, the global economic environment is quite different. During the second halving (2016), we were in a cycle of monetary expansion, the rise of big techs, strong expectations with the U.S. government transition in 2017, low inflation and low interest rates. In short, it was the perfect environment for an “alternative” asset, as market euphoria dominated everything. Four years later, we had the third halving (2020). That year brought the infamous “Corona Crash,” the worst crisis since 1929. BUT governments acted decisively: interest rates near zero (to encourage consumption) and massive monetary expansion (stimulus checks and aid to the population). This triggered huge consumption, boosting the economy and corporate earnings. Remember the risk premium I mentioned earlier? What was the required premium in 2020, when the risk-free asset had a negative real return (interest rate minus inflation)? Again — it was the perfect environment for extreme appreciation in risk assets. But it came with a price. Now, in 2025, the scenario is different — but moving toward a global economic upswing. We are still “paying” the price for the monetary expansion of 2020–2021. It’s estimated that during that period, 43% of all existing U.S. dollars were issued in the post-pandemic environment. Since the beginning of this year, much has changed: Europe adjusted interest rates, the U.S. cut rates, emerging markets reached inflation control levels — everything points to recovery. Once again, Bitcoin is moving back into the hands of major investment funds, large banks and institutions — but this time within a much broader, more consolidated and more regulated framework. ⸻ The reflection I leave you with is this: Anyone who understands Macroeconomics and market cycles knows that #BTC will appreciate. Market cycles are positive in the long run, and the required risk premium for long-term investors becomes increasingly reliable, as long-term risk is diluted and the premium increases. For speculators and “fans,” short-term risk is unpredictable. History is being written again — maybe differently, by different people, in different places — but one thing will remain the same: the ending. Starting now, I’ll publish one post per day discussing the Macro landscape and how we’ll make money in the medium and long term. Next episode: Altcoins, Alt Season & Small Caps #BTC #ETH #Economics #money

Macroeconomics Rules Bitcoin — and You Need to Understand That

Much has been said about the recent #BTC halving and how it would bring a strong appreciation to the cryptocurrency. Many ideas, predictions, projections and expectations were sold to investors and BTC holders, but that’s not what actually happened.

But after all, are we living in a bull market? Have we reached a “fair” price level in Bitcoin’s supply and demand? What does the future hold for the currency?

This text aims not only to bring you the current crypto landscape, but also to project—based on real data and context—what we can expect going forward.

⸻

1 — So let’s get to it. Are we living in a bull market?

Yes, we are in the middle of a Bull Market, but no, it hasn’t arrived for #BTC yet.
When we look at the financial market as a whole, we MUST understand that the economy is dynamic, global and diversified. In other words, there is something above investors and above the whales, and that is the global economy.

Today, we are living through a period of global disinflation, falling interest rates and the recovery of the world’s main economies. In this environment, shouldn’t Bitcoin have appreciated as promised? Maybe — but global markets follow an investment cycle that hasn’t changed and will never change.

When major economies price their interest rates at more attractive levels, it’s natural for the “holders of capital” to allocate their money there. If the U.S. government decides to pay investors 5% per year in the strongest currency in the world, large investment funds tend to concentrate their allocations in risk-free assets. Since money is finite, it’s normal that during periods like this the economy cools down — and risk assets such as crypto, stocks, emerging markets and private credit also depreciate. This is basic market behavior; we call it the “Risk Premium” — the higher the base interest rate, the higher the return I start demanding from each risky asset I hold.

This reminds me of something I used to hear when I worked at a major hedge fund: “The real Bull Market is when the supermarket cashier, the taxi driver and your boss are all talking about stocks.” The same applies to crypto.

⸻

2 — What about supply vs. demand?

As we all know, BTC supply is scarce — there is a hard limit on how many coins can ever be issued.
Demand for the asset has been growing, but as mentioned earlier, there are still other asset classes that need to appreciate first.

Today, capital has been flowing from major economies into risk assets — and we can track that through ETFs and global stock markets over the past 12 months, measured in USD:
• IEI — US Treasury 3–7y: 3.51%
• LQD — Investment Grade Corporate Bonds: 7.32%
• IVV — S&P 500 Large Caps: 17.09%
• BBEU — Developed Europe Markets: 29.72%
• FXI — China 50: 31.52%
• ILF — Latin America Top 40: 51.47%

In other words, we can clearly see money flowing into risk assets — but many economies, especially emerging ones, still face high interest rates and inflation. The performance of these same asset classes after the 2009–2010 crisis was at least 2.12× greater than what we’ve seen this year.

⸻

3 — What does the future look like, and what should we expect from this halving?

Bitcoin is already consolidated — that is a fact.
But this time, the global economic environment is quite different.

During the second halving (2016), we were in a cycle of monetary expansion, the rise of big techs, strong expectations with the U.S. government transition in 2017, low inflation and low interest rates. In short, it was the perfect environment for an “alternative” asset, as market euphoria dominated everything.

Four years later, we had the third halving (2020). That year brought the infamous “Corona Crash,” the worst crisis since 1929. BUT governments acted decisively: interest rates near zero (to encourage consumption) and massive monetary expansion (stimulus checks and aid to the population). This triggered huge consumption, boosting the economy and corporate earnings.

Remember the risk premium I mentioned earlier? What was the required premium in 2020, when the risk-free asset had a negative real return (interest rate minus inflation)? Again — it was the perfect environment for extreme appreciation in risk assets. But it came with a price.

Now, in 2025, the scenario is different — but moving toward a global economic upswing.
We are still “paying” the price for the monetary expansion of 2020–2021. It’s estimated that during that period, 43% of all existing U.S. dollars were issued in the post-pandemic environment.

Since the beginning of this year, much has changed: Europe adjusted interest rates, the U.S. cut rates, emerging markets reached inflation control levels — everything points to recovery.

Once again, Bitcoin is moving back into the hands of major investment funds, large banks and institutions — but this time within a much broader, more consolidated and more regulated framework.

⸻

The reflection I leave you with is this:

Anyone who understands Macroeconomics and market cycles knows that #BTC will appreciate. Market cycles are positive in the long run, and the required risk premium for long-term investors becomes increasingly reliable, as long-term risk is diluted and the premium increases.

For speculators and “fans,” short-term risk is unpredictable.
History is being written again — maybe differently, by different people, in different places — but one thing will remain the same: the ending.

Starting now, I’ll publish one post per day discussing the Macro landscape and how we’ll make money in the medium and long term.

Next episode: Altcoins, Alt Season & Small Caps

#BTC #ETH #Economics #money

CryptoGoat10

Macroeconomics Rules Bitcoin — and You Need to Understand That

المواضيع الرائجة

آخر الأخبار