Frogleim
93 منشورات
Frogleim
Algo Trader | AI & Algo Trading | DeFi Enthusiast Building AI-driven trading bots & automated strategies
follow me on twitter - @SFrogleim
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The same strategy made +359% and −46%. The only difference was the day I started.
Golden Cross, 50/200 SMA, 3x long BTCUSDT perp, real Binance funding charged. Identical rules, identical data, all four running to today. The only variable is when you switched it on.
Started 2019: +359%
Started 2020: −16%
Started 2022: +77%
Started 2024: −46%
405 points of spread, and not one line of the strategy changed.
This is the number nobody publishes. When someone shows you a backtest, they have already chosen the start date — and they chose it after seeing the result. Move it by a year and the same rules go from a fortune to a hole.
It isn't luck evening out over time, either. The 2019 run caught one enormous trend early enough that it paid for everything after. The 2024 run took 2 trades and never got that gift.
What to do about it: run your rules from several start dates before you believe any of them. If the answer only works from one particular Tuesday, it isn't an edge — it's a coincidence with good marketing.
Test the same rules from every start date you like 👉 https://virtuum-lab.com
#BTC #Backtesting #TradingStrategy
Golden Cross, 50/200 SMA, 3x long BTCUSDT perp, real Binance funding charged. Identical rules, identical data, all four running to today. The only variable is when you switched it on.
Started 2019: +359%
Started 2020: −16%
Started 2022: +77%
Started 2024: −46%
405 points of spread, and not one line of the strategy changed.
This is the number nobody publishes. When someone shows you a backtest, they have already chosen the start date — and they chose it after seeing the result. Move it by a year and the same rules go from a fortune to a hole.
It isn't luck evening out over time, either. The 2019 run caught one enormous trend early enough that it paid for everything after. The 2024 run took 2 trades and never got that gift.
What to do about it: run your rules from several start dates before you believe any of them. If the answer only works from one particular Tuesday, it isn't an edge — it's a coincidence with good marketing.
Test the same rules from every start date you like 👉 https://virtuum-lab.com
#BTC #Backtesting #TradingStrategy
Same strategy. Three coins. Two accounts went to zero.
My last post showed what real funding does to a Golden Cross on BTC. The obvious next question: does the strategy work, or does BTC just go up?
So I ran the identical rules on ETH and SOL. Same 50/200 SMA cross, same 3x long, same window, real Binance funding charged. All three start on the same day, so nobody gets a head start.
BTC: −16% — survived, but with an 87% drawdown
ETH: −99.9% — liquidated 3 Feb 2025
SOL: −100% — liquidated twice, the first time on its opening trade
Five trades each. Identical rules. One account limps out, two are gone.
Now drop the leverage to 1x and nothing gets liquidated: BTC +21%, ETH −38%, SOL +2%. Over six years. That's the actual edge — roughly nothing. 3x didn't amplify an edge. It just moved the liquidation price close enough to touch.
If a strategy only survives on the coin you built it on, you didn't find an edge. You fitted a chart.
Two limitations before anyone else says them: five trades is a tiny sample, and SOL's first entry doesn't come until 2023, because a 200-day SMA needs 200 days and SOL listed late.
And yes — BTC made +359% in my last post and −16% here. Same rules, same coin, same engine. The only difference is the start date: 2019 instead of 2020.
Test your rules on the coins you didn't design them for 👉 https://virtuum-lab.com
#BTC #ETH #SOL #TradingStrategy
My last post showed what real funding does to a Golden Cross on BTC. The obvious next question: does the strategy work, or does BTC just go up?
So I ran the identical rules on ETH and SOL. Same 50/200 SMA cross, same 3x long, same window, real Binance funding charged. All three start on the same day, so nobody gets a head start.
BTC: −16% — survived, but with an 87% drawdown
ETH: −99.9% — liquidated 3 Feb 2025
SOL: −100% — liquidated twice, the first time on its opening trade
Five trades each. Identical rules. One account limps out, two are gone.
Now drop the leverage to 1x and nothing gets liquidated: BTC +21%, ETH −38%, SOL +2%. Over six years. That's the actual edge — roughly nothing. 3x didn't amplify an edge. It just moved the liquidation price close enough to touch.
If a strategy only survives on the coin you built it on, you didn't find an edge. You fitted a chart.
Two limitations before anyone else says them: five trades is a tiny sample, and SOL's first entry doesn't come until 2023, because a 200-day SMA needs 200 days and SOL listed late.
And yes — BTC made +359% in my last post and −16% here. Same rules, same coin, same engine. The only difference is the start date: 2019 instead of 2020.
Test your rules on the coins you didn't design them for 👉 https://virtuum-lab.com
#BTC #ETH #SOL #TradingStrategy
7-Day Algo Trading Update 📊
Over the last week I’ve been running a fully automated futures trading system built around a momentum/trend-following framework on the 15-minute timeframe.
The system uses multiple confirmations before entering trades, including:
• Trend detection
• Momentum confirmation
• Volume filters
• Volatility-adjusted risk management
The goal is not to predict the market, but to systematically capture momentum while controlling downside risk.
#signaladvisor
Over the last week I’ve been running a fully automated futures trading system built around a momentum/trend-following framework on the 15-minute timeframe.
The system uses multiple confirmations before entering trades, including:
• Trend detection
• Momentum confirmation
• Volume filters
• Volatility-adjusted risk management
The goal is not to predict the market, but to systematically capture momentum while controlling downside risk.
#signaladvisor
After two years of development, our team has finally finished our scalping bot 🔥
It’s already running on a live account 💪
#cryptosignals
It’s already running on a live account 💪
#cryptosignals
I’m honestly surprised how many people are waiting for a massive pump on $WLFI
Sure, there’s plenty of hype around it — but beyond the hype, what real value or innovation does it bring to the table for investors?
Remember $YZY ? Everyone was shouting about huge pumps back then too. And where is it now? Exactly.
Crypto isn’t supposed to be about chasing hype. It’s about technology, decentralization, and freedom.
Hopefully one day the endless wave of “shitcoins” will finally come to an end.
#TrumpFamilyCrypto
Sure, there’s plenty of hype around it — but beyond the hype, what real value or innovation does it bring to the table for investors?
Remember $YZY ? Everyone was shouting about huge pumps back then too. And where is it now? Exactly.
Crypto isn’t supposed to be about chasing hype. It’s about technology, decentralization, and freedom.
Hopefully one day the endless wave of “shitcoins” will finally come to an end.
#TrumpFamilyCrypto
What an insane 4h move — dump, pump, and dump again. Volatility at its finest. ⚡️📉📈😄 Only in #CryptoMarket
Just closed one of today’s trades. After a couple of false breakdowns, I managed to recover the daily losses. Discipline pays off.
#signaladvisor #signalsfutures
#signaladvisor #signalsfutures
reach me via telegram - @Frogleim
CryptoKingDJ
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bot from where? i also need that bot
Just closed some bot positions — fixing today’s PnL.
Some people think if a bot makes automatic trades, you should never interrupt its positions. But remember: it’s just a bot. You’re the one in control. ✅
#signaladvisor #signalfutures
Some people think if a bot makes automatic trades, you should never interrupt its positions. But remember: it’s just a bot. You’re the one in control. ✅
#signaladvisor #signalfutures
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