fed

The volatility is back. Following the release of the January CPI (Consumer Price Index) data today, February 13, 2026, the crypto market has shifted from "Extreme Fear" to a definitive "Relief Rally." With inflation cooling more than expected to 2.4%, the macro narrative for a potential Fed pivot is finally gaining legs.

​Here is a deep dive into the current market structure for BTC and ETH.
​🟠 Bitcoin ($BTC ): The Battle for $70,000
​Bitcoin reacted aggressively to the CPI print, spiking from the mid-$65k range to briefly touch $69,190. This move invalidated the immediate bearish threat of a fourth consecutive weekly red candle.
​Key Technical Observations:
​The Support Flip: The most critical task for bulls is to flip the $68,800 – $69,000 zone (the 2021 cycle high) into a solidified support floor. If we hold this level, it signals a structural shift from a correction to a new uptrend.
​Liquidation Data: Over $60 million in BTC shorts were liquidated within an hour of the announcement. This "short squeeze" provided the fuel for the initial pump.
​Resistance: The next major "supply wall" sits at $71,600 – $72,000. A daily close above this would open the doors for a retest of the $74,500 yearly highs.
​Trading View: Watch the DXY (Dollar Index). The dollar is showing weakness post-CPI; as long as the DXY stays suppressed, the path of least resistance for BTC remains upward.
​🔷 Ethereum ($ETH ): Catching Up or Still Lagging?
​While BTC has taken the spotlight, Ethereum is showing signs of stabilizing after a brutal start to February. ETH is currently hovering near $1,970, attempting to reclaim the psychological $2,000 level.
​Key Technical Observations:
​Oversold Bounce: The RSI for ETH hit extreme oversold levels (near 24) earlier this week. The current bounce is technically a "mean reversion," but momentum is building.
​The $2,050 Ceiling: ETH faces immediate heavy resistance at $2,050 – $2,200. Unlike BTC, ETH still has significant "leverage overhang" to clear before it can target the $2,400 range.
​ETF Flows: Keep an eye on the spot ETH ETF net flows. While BTC ETFs saw a return to inflows today, ETH funds have been seeing expanded outflows. A stabilization here is the "missing ingredient" for a parabolic ETH move.
​📊 Market Outlook: Q2 2026
​The "Soft Landing" narrative is back on the table. If inflation continues to trend toward the 2% target, the market will begin pricing in rate cuts for the second half of 2026.
​Bullish Case: BTC maintains $69k, leading to a "FOMO" wave toward $80k by the end of March.
​Bearish Case: If the Fed remains hawkish in their upcoming speeches despite the cool CPI, expect a retracement to the $64,500 liquidity pocket.
​The Bottom Line
​The CPI data has given the market the green light it needed to breathe. However, professional traders should look for confirmation (a daily close above $69k for BTC) rather than chasing the initial green candle.

​What’s your move? Are you longing for the breakout or waiting for a retest of the support? Let us know in the comments below! 👇
​#bitcoin #Ethereum #cpi #CryptoAnalysis #Fed

🚨 Core inflation data drops today at 8:30 AM ET — and markets are primed for action.
Everyone’s eyes are on $BANK sector moves once the numbers hit.
📈 Market Consensus: CPI at 2.5% — that’s the expected annual reading. If inflation prints hotter-than-expected, expect volatility across rates, equities, and bonds. If cooler, expect relief buying in rate-sensitive assets.
Here’s what you really need to know:
🧠 Why CPI Matters
• CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures inflation pressure at the consumer level.
• It influences the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook and future policy guidance.
• Higher inflation = pressure on bonds and bank stocks.
• Lower inflation = easing in rate expectations = possible equity relief.
📌 Key Market Drivers Today
🔹 Interest Rates & Fed Outlook
Expectations are already priced for a slower Fed tightening path. A hot CPI could reset that narrative.
🔹 Bank Stocks ($BANK)
Banks benefit from higher rates through wider net interest margins — but sharp rate repricing can also spook markets. If CPI surprises to the upside, $BANK volatility could spike fast.
🔹 Bond Yields & Curve
Yields will react immediately. Higher headline inflation could push 2-year and 10-year yields up, compressing curves or steepening unexpectedly.
📌 Short-Term Scenarios to Watch
📍 1) CPI beats (higher than 2.5%)
• Rally in rate-sensitive sectors like financials
• Bond yields spike
• Dollar strengthens
• Risk assets under pressure
📍 2) CPI in line or softer
• Potential risk rally
• Dovish Fed repricing
• Short covering in rates and growth assets
📈 Sentiment & Positioning
Investors are positioned cautiously heading into the print. There’s low conviction on direction — which means post-data moves could be violent. Don’t chase late — trade the structure.
🛠 Levels to Watch (Pre-Market)
• US 10Y Yield Reaction
• SPX / QQQ gap fills
• Bank sector implied volatility
• US Dollar index swings
This CPI release isn’t just “another data point.” It’s a market impact event with the power to reshape short-term positioning across equities, bonds, and FX.
Stay alert. Be nimble. Trade structure, not noise. 🔍
#CPI #USCPI #Inflation #Fed #InterestRates @Maliyexys @lili丽丽 @crypto jaani
$BTC