bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has more likely than not entered a new Bull Cycle, a subject that we've covered extensively over the past 2 months.
As discussed however, there is no reason not to expect technical rallies here and there, practically as we've shown those are quite common in the basic Bear Cycle structure. Historically, moreover, bullish rallies of Bear Cycles have been on average more aggressive than those during Bull Cycles.
So now that the intro is over, let's move to the main course. BTC's sell-off since its October 06 $126400 All Time High (ATH) has been a Bearish Leg similar to the previous major correction of January 20 - April 07. In fact it technically seems that they are both a part of a Channel Up. Having also just completed a 1D MACD Bullish Cross as in March (though that structure made one final Low), it appears as if the first counter-trend rally of this Bull Cycle that we've talked about in the past 10 days, may materialize.
In fact, it is already under way and as we've shown in past analyses, it aims and is restricted by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the natural technical Resistance during Bear Cycles. If it actually repeats the Jan - April 2025 correction, it should now test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the Lower Highs trend-line, which has been the Resistance during these past 2 months.
That strong immediate Resistance Cluster also has the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which is also where the April rebound got rejected and consolidated for a few days. As a result, Target 1 is at $95850.
The second and final (over extended) Target of this is, as mentioned the 1D MA200, outside of the Lower Highs trend-line. A target scenario for this, where the price could make marginal contact with the 1D MA200, is $106450. This is where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is, which was also Target 2 for the April fractal and where the second consolidation took place.
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Bitcoin has stayed above the level of ninety thousand for a few days now. This has given many people a small feeling of trust again after the sharp fall that took place before. The market is still not relaxed though because the chart shows some clear barriers that Bitcoin must cross before any real and steady rise can begin.

The first big problem is the supply sitting in two main zones. A supply zone is a place where many sell orders wait. When the price enters that area it slows down because a lot of people try to sell at the same time. The first zone sits between ninety three thousand and ninety six thousand. The second zone sits between one hundred three thousand and one hundred eight thousand. These are heavy areas on the chart because the price has reacted around them many times. If Bitcoin cannot break through the first zone it may drop under ninety thousand again. If it fails again later and falls under eighty two thousand it can start a deeper down trend.

Even if Bitcoin fights its way through both zones it still has one more step to complete. There is a level called the short term holder cost basis. This level shows the average price paid by people who bought Bitcoin in the last few months. When the price stays above that level it means most short term holders feel safe because they are not sitting in a loss. When the price stays under that level they feel pressure and many of them sell which pushes the price down again. This level right now is around one hundred nine thousand eight hundred. So even after passing one hundred eight thousand Bitcoin needs to rise above this point for stronger support.

There is also some pressure from global markets. A well known fear index has been rising. When this index rises it often means that markets around the world are facing stress. When stress rises people often pull money out of risky assets. Bitcoin is seen as a risk asset so it can feel the effect right away. Some analysts believe that big tech stocks are stretched which means they might fall. If they fall hard that fall can spread into crypto which can push Bitcoin into a clear bearish trend.

Still the current picture is not all bad. Bitcoin has held the ninety thousand line which shows that buyers are still active. Many people are also waiting for lower levels to buy again. Strong hands still believe that Bitcoin is in a long term growth cycle even if the short term looks rough. The price only needs a clean break above the first two zones and then a move above the short term holder cost basis to start a healthy climb.

The next few days will show how strong the buyers are. If Bitcoin rises and closes above the supply areas the mood can improve fast. If it falls under the key support levels the market may see more red candles. For now Bitcoin stands in the middle and waits for a clear push from either side.
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