Weekend deep dive stock 08
$AEHR: an ascending triangle under 111, with three tops there since July and higher lows rising into it. It closed Friday at 107.21.
✅️ What I like
Chart: A flat lid at 110–111 (110.20 on Jul 15, 111.00 on Aug 4, 109.48 on Friday) with higher lows since September at 74.23, 80.95 and then the 90s.
Fundamentals: A backlog of about $100M backs a FY27 guide of $130–150M, which is 2.6–3x FY26 revenue. AI and silicon photonics were over 80% of Q4 revenue, and there are repeat AI orders: a record $41M hyperscaler order in April and a $22M follow-on in August.
🚨 What worries me
Chart: It's extremely volatile. The August run through 111 failed and fell about 50% from 147.40 to 74.23 in three weeks, and it still needs a close over 111.
Fundamentals: About 25x FY27 sales guidance. The CEO sold 40,000 shares at $130.84 in August, three customers made up 26%, 14% and 11% of FY26 revenue, and it raised $97.4M selling new shares in FY26.
💡 Trade idea:
Confirm 111 · TP1 121.80 · TP2 126.62 · TP3 147.40 · Invalid 98
💰 Investment: not one for me at about 25x sales. It's a swing only, at small size given the swings.
Not financial advice
#stocks
$AEHR: an ascending triangle under 111, with three tops there since July and higher lows rising into it. It closed Friday at 107.21.
✅️ What I like
Chart: A flat lid at 110–111 (110.20 on Jul 15, 111.00 on Aug 4, 109.48 on Friday) with higher lows since September at 74.23, 80.95 and then the 90s.
Fundamentals: A backlog of about $100M backs a FY27 guide of $130–150M, which is 2.6–3x FY26 revenue. AI and silicon photonics were over 80% of Q4 revenue, and there are repeat AI orders: a record $41M hyperscaler order in April and a $22M follow-on in August.
🚨 What worries me
Chart: It's extremely volatile. The August run through 111 failed and fell about 50% from 147.40 to 74.23 in three weeks, and it still needs a close over 111.
Fundamentals: About 25x FY27 sales guidance. The CEO sold 40,000 shares at $130.84 in August, three customers made up 26%, 14% and 11% of FY26 revenue, and it raised $97.4M selling new shares in FY26.
💡 Trade idea:
Confirm 111 · TP1 121.80 · TP2 126.62 · TP3 147.40 · Invalid 98
💰 Investment: not one for me at about 25x sales. It's a swing only, at small size given the swings.
Not financial advice
#stocks
