Bitcoin hit $87,364 on 21st September. If you own $BTC the next date to watch is 25th September, when Deribit options covering roughly $16 billion of Bitcoin expire.
The exchange’s 22nd September data show about 186,000 BTC in that expiry, around 38% of its Bitcoin-settled options book. The dollar figure measures the Bitcoin represented by those contracts. Only the options’ final payoff is settled. There is no automatic $16 billion purchase or sale.
Expiry can affect prices as trading desks adjust the positions protecting them against losses.
An options seller hedging its exposure generally buys as Bitcoin rises and sells as it falls. That safeguard can reduce the desk’s exposure while making the market move more sharply. A hedged options buyer generally does the reverse, buying dips and selling rallies.
As contracts expire, those hedges can be closed or replaced alongside new options. Public positioning charts estimate who holds what. They do not reveal the complete dealer book, so they cannot establish whether Friday brings buying, selling or little change.
Monday brought a clearer change in fund demand. Farside recorded $999 million of net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, against just $6.1 million across the previous five sessions.
CoinDesk, citing CoinGlass on 22nd September, also reported $844 million in crypto short liquidations over 24 hours. Those were positions betting on falling prices, across crypto broadly. Bitcoin accounted for $608 million of total liquidations across both directions.
Closing a losing short can require a buy order. That can lift the price and trigger the next closure. Exchange collateral rules can work as intended while accelerating a rally. The liquidation figures measure positions closed, not fresh investment or cash losses of the same amount.
The fund flows have a limit too. Investors can buy ETF shares and sell futures against them. The published inflow does not reveal how much was hedged. Neither does the daily change in outstanding futures, because new hedges can replace positions other traders close.
The Fed has meanwhile raised rates. Its 16th September decision took the target to 3.75% to 4%. Officials’ median projection puts rates at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027. This rally has happened with further tightening still in those projections.
Friday’s settlements are seven hours apart. Deribit expires at 8am UTC. CME’s standard September Bitcoin futures and monthly options settle at 3pm UTC. Traders can adjust or replace their hedges before either deadline.
My test is whether fund inflows continue and Bitcoin retains its gains after those expiries. That would support a more durable advance. If fund demand fades while leveraged bullish bets build, a reversal could trigger forced selling instead. NFA DYOR
