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比特幣正處於近八年來最弱的第一季度，目前自年初以來已經下降約22%。
它在87700美元附近開啓了這一年，已經接近20000美元下跌到目前68000美元左右，使其與2018年粗略的熊市相符，當時價格幾乎下降了50%。
比特幣在過去十三年的七個季度中以虧損結束了第一季度
最新的下跌發生在2025年，2020年下降了11.8%，約下降了10.8%，最糟糕的是在2018年，僅在三個月內幾乎崩潰了50%。

比特幣在十月達到了126,000美元。現在它大約在66,000美元。這在四個月內幾乎減少了一半。如果你在這個領域待了一段時間，你可能會在各處聽到一個問題——四年週期再次發生了嗎？
對於那些不知道的人來說，比特幣自第一天起就遵循了一種模式。每四年，會發生一次稱爲減半的事件，將新比特幣的供應減半。在每次減半之後，我們會迎來一輪大的牛市。然後是崩盤。然後是緩慢的復甦。然後這一切又會重演。簡單吧？

支付代幣XRP的上漲速度超過比特幣和以太坊，交易者在本月早些時候的市場下跌後尋找折扣機會。
根據CoinDesk的數據，XRP在2月6日觸底後上漲了大約38％，達到約1.55美元。在過去的一天中，它的漲幅也超過了5％。
這一舉動使XRP遠遠領先於比特幣和以太坊，自2月6日以來，它們的漲幅僅約爲15％，BTC接近69,420美元，ETH約爲2,020美元。
與比特幣相比，XRP的強勁反彈與在拋售後Binance的重度買入相吻合。

If you’ve been watching Bitcoin lately, the “down 22%” number doesn’t feel like a statistic — it feels like a mood. One day it looks like it wants to bounce, the next day it’s back under pressure, and the market keeps circling the same question: is this shaping up to be the ugliest first quarter we’ve seen since the 2018 bloodbath?

Here’s what that claim is really about.

Bitcoin started 2026 in the high-$80,000s (different data feeds land a little differently depending on the exact close they use), and by February 16, 2026 it’s hovering around $68–69K, which is how you get to the “roughly 22% down for Q1 so far” headline. That’s a big move in a short time, even for Bitcoin. And the reason people keep bringing up “since 2018” is because Q1 2018 is the gold standard of pain — a quarter where Bitcoin dropped around half its value in many return datasets. Today’s drawdown isn’t that extreme, but it’s bad enough that it’s starting to rank near the bottom of recent first quarters, and that’s why the comparison keeps coming up.

What makes this quarter feel especially draining isn’t just the percentage loss — it’s how it’s happening. The price action has had that “two steps forward, three steps back” energy. Bitcoin keeps flirting with big psychological levels like $70,000, gets rejected, drifts lower, tries again, and repeats. When the market keeps doing that, it changes behavior. People stop buying dips with confidence. Shorts get bolder leaning into resistance. And anyone who bought near the start of the year starts seeing every bounce as a chance to reduce exposure rather than a sign that the bull move is resuming.

A major reason the market’s confidence has been shaky is the same thing that previously made everyone feel safer: spot Bitcoin ETFs. After ETFs went live, a lot of traders got used to the idea that there would be steady institutional demand in the background — a consistent source of buying that would soften drawdowns and turn dips into quick recoveries. But lately, the tone in market coverage has shifted toward slowing inflows and periods of net outflows, and that matters because it changes the “automatic bid” story. When flows are strong, traders take more risk. When flows wobble, traders get cautious fast.

It’s important to say this clearly: ETFs don’t magically control the price on their own. But they absolutely affect psychology and positioning. If the market believes ETF demand is consistently absorbing supply, traders are willing to buy dips harder and hold higher leverage. If the market sees headlines about large outflow days — like one report noting a $410 million net outflow day — the instinct flips. Dip-buyers hesitate. Hedging becomes more popular. Leverage comes down. And when leverage comes down, Bitcoin can fall faster than people expect because forced selling doesn’t wait for “good levels.”

At the same time, this hasn’t been a clean, one-direction selloff. There have also been days with strong inflows, which is why Bitcoin hasn’t simply collapsed straight down. Instead, we’ve gotten the kind of choppy market that frustrates everyone: it doesn’t reward dip-buyers consistently, but it doesn’t give shorts a smooth ride either. That type of action tends to compress time horizons. People trade shorter. They take profits quicker. And that can keep the market heavy even without a single dramatic “bad news” catalyst.

Then there’s the macro backdrop — the stuff crypto fans don’t always want to talk about, but which matters when volatility returns. When rate expectations are uncertain and equity markets are jumpy, crypto often trades like a high-beta risk asset. That doesn’t mean Bitcoin has no long-term narrative; it just means that in the short-to-medium term, it can get dragged around by the same “risk on / risk off” currents that move tech stocks and other speculative assets. Recent fund-flow and market coverage has highlighted that kind of caution — and when caution is the default setting, people reduce exposure to the most volatile things first.

Another piece that makes this drawdown sting is the emotional context. Bitcoin wasn’t coming into 2026 from a boring, quiet range. It was coming from a period where people had gotten used to big upside and bold price targets. Reuters previously reported Bitcoin hitting a record above $125,000 in early October 2025, and markets don’t just forget that kind of recent history. When something has been that high, every level below it becomes psychologically loaded. People who bought late want out on bounces. People who missed the top get tempted to short rallies. And long-term holders who were comfortable during the run-up start paying more attention when the drawdown feels persistent instead of quick.

So, is this really on track to be the worst Q1 since 2018?

If we’re being honest: it’s not guaranteed, but the question isn’t silly.

It’s not guaranteed because Q1 doesn’t end until March 31, 2026, and Bitcoin can move 10–20% in either direction in weeks. If it recovers meaningfully into late March, the quarter could still end negative, but the “historic disaster” framing fades. On the other hand, if Bitcoin stays pinned in the high-$60Ks (or breaks lower) while inflows remain weak and macro stays tense, it becomes easier for Q1 2026 to finish as one of the worst first quarters in years — which is exactly why some outlets are already using “worst in eight years so far” language.

The most grounded way to look at it is this: the “worst since 2018” label isn’t a prophecy, it’s a scoreboard check. Right now, the scoreboard looks rough. The market has lost altitude quickly, sentiment has shifted from confident to cautious, and the supports people assumed would hold (steady inflows, easy dip-buying) haven’t been as dependable as expected.

If you want a simple “what to watch next” without turning this into a trader’s lecture, it comes down to a few very human signals:

If Bitcoin starts reclaiming levels like $70K and holds them without instantly giving it back, it changes the feeling of the market. If ETF flow headlines shift from “outflows” to “steady inflows,” dip-buyers regain confidence. If broader markets calm down and people stop acting like every rally is temporary, Bitcoin usually breathes easier too. But if none of that improves, the market can keep grinding lower or sideways, and a bad quarter can quietly become a historically bad quarter simply because time runs out before a real recovery shows up.

As of February 16, 2026, the situation is straightforward: Bitcoin is hovering near $68–69K, it’s down around 22% for the quarter so far, and the pressure is being explained across coverage in terms of softer ETF flow dynamics, risk caution, and the knock-on effects of leverage and sentiment. Whether it ends up wearing the “worst Q1 since 2018” badge will be decided by where it closes on March 31, 2026 — not by the loudest headline, but by the final number on the chart.

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