macro

🚨 THIS IS NOT GOOD — THE U.S. REFINANCING WALL IS HERE
Over the next 12 months, roughly $9.6 trillion of U.S. marketable government debt will mature — the largest refinancing wave in history.
That’s nearly one-third of all outstanding public debt that must be rolled over.
And here’s the real problem 👇
Most of this debt was issued when interest rates were near zero.
Now it must be refinanced at 4–5%.
The Math the Market Can’t Ignore
Even a 2% average increase on $9.6T equals:
➡️ ~$192 billion in NEW annual interest expense
That’s not stimulus.
That’s not growth.
That’s pure cost.
For perspective:
Net interest on United States debt is already projected to exceed $1 trillion per year by 2026
That’s more than the entire U.S. defense budget
Interest is becoming one of the largest line items in federal spending — and it’s growing automatically.
Why This Matters Now
This isn’t a theoretical risk.
This is a mechanical reality hitting over the next 12 months.
• Higher refinancing costs tighten fiscal flexibility
• Treasury issuance pressure stays elevated
• Liquidity conditions become more fragile
• Risk assets become more sensitive to macro shocks
This is how volatility regimes change — not overnight, but structurally.
The Big Picture
This is the largest debt rollover event ever, happening at the highest rate environment in over a decade.
The consequences won’t show up in one headline. They’ll show up across:
Bond markets
Equity volatility
Currency pressure
Policy decisions
The next year won’t be quiet.
It will be decisive.
I’ll keep breaking this down in real time.
When I make a move in the market, I’ll say it publicly.
If you want to win this year, pay attention to macro first — not noise.
Many will ignore this.
Most will regret it later.
#Debt