forecasts

On February 10–11, 2026, the U.S. government released its latest retail sales figures — a key monthly indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of the U.S. economy. The report showed that retail sales were flat in December, coming in at 0.0% month-on-month, despite forecasts pointing to around +0.4% growth. �
Reuters +1
Analysts had expected the continuing post-holiday consumer resilience to lift sales modestly, but the reading showed no growth and came alongside downward revisions to previous months. Core measures excluding volatile categories also failed to meet expectations. �
Babypips.com
Key Findings
Retail sales unchanged at $735 billion, below the projected rise. �
VT Markets -
Year-over-year increases slowed, signaling weakening consumer demand. �
MEXC
Economic indicators suggest broader consumer fatigue amid inflationary pressures and rising living costs. �
The Wall Street Journal
Immediate Market Reactions
The weak retail sales reading reverberated across global financial markets:
Traditional Markets
Equity futures and stock indices showed mixed to cautious trading, as traders reassessed growth prospects. �
BSS
Treasury yields fell modestly, reflecting risk-off positioning. �
FXStreet
The U.S. dollar softened slightly as markets digested the data. �
VT Markets -
What This Means for Monetary Policy
With consumer demand appearing to ease, expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes are being reassessed. Soft retail data increases speculation that the Fed may pause or delay tightening, pending upcoming jobs and inflation reports. �
Reuters
Impact on Crypto Markets & Binance
Although the retail sales miss was fundamentally about U.S. consumer data, it has notable implications for the cryptocurrency landscape — particularly on platforms such as Binance where traders react swiftly to macroeconomic shifts.
1. Crypto Prices Respond to Macro Data
Soft economic data can boost risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, for several reasons:
Expectations of slower rate hikes or easier monetary policy tend to weaken the dollar, making risk assets more attractive.
Reduced yields on traditional assets may divert capital toward Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins.
Indeed, some market sources reported that Bitcoin and other major cryptos climbed modestly after softer U.S. retail sales and inflation data, reinforcing the narrative that lower rates could benefit risk assets. �
TradingView
2. Binance Traders & Liquidity Flows
Binance — one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges — typically sees increased trading volumes around macroeconomic news events:
Traders use retail sales miss data to position for potential monetary easing.
Crypto derivatives and futures on Binance may experience higher volatility, with leveraged traders adjusting positions in BTC and ETH based on sentiment shifts.
3. Longer-Term Narrative
A persistent slowdown in consumer spending raises broader questions about economic growth and investor confidence — themes that often correlate with crypto cycles. A series of weak economic prints could shift the balance toward longer-term bullish narratives for Bitcoin as a hedge, if real yields remain depressed.
Where Markets Go From Here
While one report rarely tells the full story, this retail sales miss has:
Reignited debate on Fed rate direction.
Influenced FX and fixed income markets.
Triggered nuanced reactions in digital assets via trading behavior on exchanges like Binance.
The upcoming employment and inflation data releases will be critical in shaping the next leg of market moves — both in traditional finance and crypto. Analysts caution that retail sales are just one piece of the broader economic puzzle, but in the current environment, they carry outsized influence on risk asset pricing.
#USRetailSalesMissForecast #Binance #RetailSales #CryptoMarkets #forecasts

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美國總統特朗普呼籲聯邦儲備降低利率，因爲關稅開始對經濟造成傷害。
美國現貨ETF本週迄今錄得連續第三天的資金流入。
週四的Blockworks數字資產峯會標誌着現任美國總統首次在加密貨幣會議上發言的歷史性時刻。

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關鍵要點：
Polymarket和Kalshi以近4億美元的融資達到了獨角獸地位。
基於區塊鏈的預測平臺模糊了投資與賭博之間的界限。
流動性、解決速度和去中心化仍然是關鍵挑戰和機遇。
預測市場不再是邊緣金融；它們正迅速成爲加密生態系統的核心部分。隨着Polymarket和Kalshi獲得十億美金的估值，該行業吸引了嚴肅的投資者關注。這些平臺允許用戶對從政治到流行文化的現實結果進行投注，使用基於區塊鏈的事件合約。隨着傳統經紀商和DeFi初創公司的加入，主導未來金融的競爭正在升溫。