onchainanalysis

在大多數交易者在波動期間感到恐慌時，一個熟悉的錢包正在做完全相反的事情——安靜、自信且毫不猶豫。
就在八小時前，Infini的利用者進場，用1,331.2萬美元的DAI購買了6,316 $ETH ，平均價格大約爲2,109美元。沒有噪音，沒有戲劇。
然後來了下一步。彷彿這是例行公事，他將所有15,470 ETH（大約價值3,260萬美元）打包，然後直接發送到Tornado Cash。
使這件事突出的不僅僅是規模。還有一致性。

🚨 Will Bitcoin Keep Dumping Into 2026? Here’s My Thesis.
This isn’t just about price.
I track $BTC using two axes: TIME + PRICE.
Most traders only focus on price — and that’s why they often miss the best cycle entries.
⏳ 1️⃣ The TIME Axis
Days from ATH to cycle low after each halving:
2012 cycle → 406 days2016 cycle → 363 days2020 cycle → 376 days2024 cycle → Still developing
These numbers are surprisingly consistent.
If this cycle follows historical structure, the highest probability window for the next major bottom is October–November 2026.
That’s my time target.
When that window arrives, I’ll be buying — regardless of what price looks like.
Why? Because time-based frameworks reduce emotional decisions and help avoid being front-run.

💰 2️⃣ The PRICE Axis
I’ve already started accumulating since BTC entered the $60,000 zone.
Why not wait for perfection?
Because waiting for the “perfect” level is how investors miss entire moves.
Retail logic:
“I’ll only buy at X price.”
But what if price never hits it?
So my approach is simple:
If price offers value → I start buying.
If the historical time window hits → I buy regardless of price.
Two independent triggers. One framework.
📊 What About a Lower Low?
The risk of further downside is still real.
That’s why I also watch NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) — an on-chain indicator that historically marked cycle bottoms:
2018 bottomCOVID crash2022 bottom
Right now, we are not in the historical capitulation (blue) zone yet.
Because of that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see BTC in the $45K–$50K range by late 2026.
That’s where I’d feel comfortable going heavier.
🧠 My Framework
✔ TIME Axis → Oct–Nov 2026 = Strong Buy
✔ PRICE Axis → Below $60K = Strong Buy
✔ Bonus Confirmation → NUPL capitulation zone
If either condition triggers, I execute structured accumulation.
The market feels messy right now — but this is part of every cycle.
I’ve been through multiple cycles since 2016.
Volatility is not the end. It’s the process.
Stay disciplined.
Not financial advice.

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#BTC #OnChainAnalysis #CryptocurrencyWealth #CryptoCrisis #WhaleDeRiskETH

策略和幣安能否將比特幣推向新的歷史高點？
比特幣再次成爲機構關注的中心。
在其最新舉措中，策略（前稱微策略）宣佈收購了1,142個額外的比特幣，投資約9000萬美元，平均價格爲每個比特幣78,815美元。截至2026年2月8日，該公司目前持有714,644個比特幣，累計成本約爲543.5億美元，平均購買價格爲每個比特幣76,056美元。
與此同時，最近的市場數據顯示，幣安也增加了其比特幣的敞口，強化了機構積累的更廣泛敘事。

每個牛市都遵循相同的模式。比特幣翻倍，大家慶祝，然後山寨幣爆炸性增長5倍到20倍，而大多數人則在旁觀，想知道他們又是如何錯過的。
事實是，山寨幣季並不會毫無徵兆地出現。它會在價格變動前幾周出現在鏈上數據中。這裏有五個指標可以讓你提前警覺，最棒的是它們都是免費的跟蹤。
1. 比特幣主導地位：資本流動指標
比特幣主導地位顯示了比特幣在整個加密市場中所佔的百分比。當其下降時，資金正從比特幣流向山寨幣。當其上升時，情況正好相反。

Executive Summary
The broader cryptocurrency market is currently staging a fragile recovery, with the Total Market Capitalization stabilizing between $2.3 trillion and $2.5 trillion. While spot market activity suggests a return of "buy-the-dip" conviction among long-term holders, the derivatives sector paints a more cautious picture. Bitcoin is currently testing the $68,800 support zone, having briefly dipped below the psychological $70k barrier following a week of heightened volatility.
Spot Market: Accumulation returns
Despite the "Extreme Fear" sentiment (Index ~12-15) dominating retail discussions, on-chain data indicates a structural rebound.

The Floor: The total crypto market cap has found support near $2.4 trillion, down from $3 trillion at the start of the year.The Buyers: Smart money appears to be stepping in. While retail traders faced massive liquidations, institutional heavyweights like BlackRock (via ETF inflows) and Binance (via SAFU reserves) have been active net buyers during the flush. This divergence suggests that sophisticated capital is treating the $68k - $70k zone as a value accumulation area.
Derivatives Market: The Bearish Hedge
In stark contrast to the spot market's resilience, the derivatives landscape remains defensive.
Lingering Shorts: Speculative positioning has not fully flipped bullish. Reports indicate that while open interest has declined due to liquidations, the remaining capital is heavily hedged. Put option premiums remain elevated, signaling that traders are protecting against further downside.The "Wall of Worry": Bearish bets are piling up below key support levels, creating a scenario where market makers may be incentivized to pin prices lower to capture premium before any sustained rally can occur.
Conclusion
The market is currently in a state of dislocation. Spot buyers are betting on a recovery, while derivative traders are hedging for a crash. Historically, when spot accumulation outpaces derivative fear, it sets the stage for a "short squeeze" rally. However, until the derivatives market cleanses these lingering bearish bets, volatility will likely remain elevated.
#CryptoMarket #MarketUpdate #Derivatives #OnChainAnalysis #Investing

鏈上數據表明，與黑石集團相關的錢包大約轉移了 2,268 $BTC 和 45,324 $ETH 到保管/交易地址。
在這個階段，目前沒有官方確認這些轉賬代表直接市場銷售。
像這樣的重大機構轉動通常與： • ETF 創建/贖回機制 相關
• 保管再平衡
• 風險管理或流動性定位
轉賬到交易所並不等於自動賣出，但如果隨後執行，可能會引入短期供應壓力。

大多數交易者關注價格。
聰明的錢在Binance上觀察鯨魚行爲。
📊 數據揭示了什麼：
🔹 2025年3月–4月
BTC鯨魚→交易所流量保持在歷史低位附近。
價格走勢看起來疲軟。
鯨魚沒有賣出→供應緊縮→強勁的上漲隨之而來。
🔹 2025年6月–7月
在鯨魚流量仍然較低時，反彈開始了。
隨着BTC上漲，鯨魚流入在頂部附近激增，發出了分配的信號。
🔹 2025年12月–2026年1月
BTC繼續下滑，但鯨魚的賣出保持在最低水平。