bitcoin

新聞作者：Crypto Emergency
亞納託利·阿克薩科夫，國家杜馬金融市場委員會主席，也是俄羅斯加密貨幣監管的關鍵作者之一，發表了關於比特幣未來的強烈聲明。他表示，BTC“早晚會崩潰”，因爲沒有實質性保障，並且基於投機性興趣。

比特幣在2月6日暴跌，整個加密社區正在努力理解誰在背後推動這場大規模拋售。出現了三種說法——從亞洲對衝基金到銀行對衝和轉向人工智能(AI)的礦工。
香港對衝基金和日元貸款

數十年的數據表明一個幾乎“不可動搖”的規律:
比特幣從未在同一年1月和2月都出現過負數的情況！
🔶 1月通常是“積極啓動”的月份（平均+2.81%，中位數+0.29%）。
🔶 2月更強（平均+11.27%，中位數+11.68%）——通常是年初最深綠色的月份。

但2026年正在打破所有規則:
🔴 2026年1月: -10.17%
🔴 2026年2月（正在進行中）: -12.72%（仍然是紅色，且月份尚未結束！）

比特幣始終遵循一個規則，而不是任何敘述：長期結構在宏觀壓力下最爲重要。
從周線圖來看，$BTC 仍然在一個長期上升通道內交易，該通道在多個週期中引導價格。
每個主要擴張階段都遵循這一結構，而每次深度修正都測試其下限。
歷史和結構上，一個水平格外突出：200周移動平均線（200W MA）。
爲什麼200W移動平均線很重要
200W移動平均線在熊市期間一直是比特幣週期底部的標誌：

多年來，比特幣的四年減半週期幾乎感覺可預測。每次減半都減少了礦工獎勵，收緊了供應，並在歷史上幫助引發了大約12到18個月後的牛市高峯。
十多年來，節奏幾乎感覺機械化。
2012 減半 → 2013 高峯
2016 減半 → 2017 高峯
2020 減半 → 2021 高峯
然後來到了2024年4月。礦工獎勵降至3.125 BTC，預期變得明確：強勁反彈，狂熱頂點，隨後是降溫。
這是比特幣價格走勢的長期視圖（對數尺度），顯示了歷史減半週期和2024年至2026年的路徑：

Bitcoin is at $68,500.
That’s a 46% drop from the $126,210 all-time high we saw in October.
Fear & Greed Index: 9 (Extreme Fear).
Twitter sentiment: "The bubble finally popped."
Retail investors: Total capitulation.
But here is the data that is confusing everyone: The #bitcoin network has never been stronger.

While the price chart looks like a disaster, the internal engine of the network is screaming growth.
Hash rate is hitting new highs, active addresses are climbing, and the network hasn't skipped a beat.
Let’s explain the massive disconnect and why this "Value Gap" matters more than the daily candle.
The Data Everyone Is Ignoring
Price is down 46%. But look at the actual health of the system:
1. Hash Rate (Network Security)
Current: 1.06 Zettahash/s (1,060 EH/s)Change: +24% increase from the price peak.Bitcoin's hash rate the total computing power securing the network hit multiple all-time highs in early 2026. Despite a recent 11% difficulty drop due to U.S. winter storms and miner "de-leveraging," the long-term trend is up.

Translation: Miners are still deploying billions in hardware. They are betting on the next 10 years, not the next 10 days.

2. Active Addresses (Network Usage)
Current: 733,000 daily active addresses (7-day average)Change: +23% increase.More people are moving Bitcoin now at $68K than when it was at $126K. This isn't just "HODLing"; it's utility.

Translation: Network adoption is accelerating even as speculators flee.

3. Institutional Stability (The ETF Factor)
Context: We saw massive outflows of $1.9B year-to-date.The Shift: As of yesterday, spot ETFs recorded $145M in net inflows, marking a third straight day of positive momentum.

Translation: The "forced selling" phase is cooling off. Institutions are starting to buy the "blood in the streets."

Why the Disconnect? Sentiment vs. Reality

Right now, the market and the network are playing two different games.
The Market (Short-Term): Driven by leverage, liquidations, and fear. When $5.5B in leveraged positions get wiped out, fundamentals don't matter. Forced selling doesn't care about hash rate.The Network (Long-Term): Driven by security, utility, and scarcity. The network is growing while the price is weak. This creates a "coiled spring" effect.

Historically, when the network grows and the price falls, the price eventually catches up.
We saw this in the 2018 crash, the 2020 COVID dip, and the 2022 FTX collapse. Every single time, the fundamental strength was the leading indicator of the next bull run.
The "Phase" of the Market
We are currently moving out of Phase 1 (Leverage Unwind) and into Phase 2 (Capitulation/Bottoming).
The Fear & Greed Index hitting 9 is a historic signal. In 2022, it hit 6 before we bottomed. We are deep in the "darkest before the dawn" zone. While retail investors are asking if Bitcoin is dead, smart money is looking at the 100% uptime and record security and asking, "How much can I buy at this discount?"
What This Means For You
Are you watching the candle or the engine?
If you are a Trader: Respect the trend. $68K is a psychological battleground, and macro uncertainty from the delayed Jobs Report is keeping things volatile. Fundamentals won't save your margin call.If you are an Investor: This is the "Value Gap." The foundation of the house is getting stronger (Hash Rate) while the market price of the house is being slashed. This is where wealth is historically built.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s network is flawless. Its security is at an all-time high. Its adoption is growing. Only the price is "broken."
This disconnect won't last forever. Eventually, price aligns with the network. It always has. The question isn't if the fundamentals will matter, but when.
What’s your take?
Are you a Network Bull (buying the fundamental strength ) or a Macro Bear (waiting for a deeper flush )? Which data point are you watching most closely right now?
Let me know in the comments below.

不會隨機移動。
它重複行爲；只是價格不同。

當你放大並比較之前的週期與當前週期時，結構幾乎是相同的。

讓我們分解一下 👇

📈 第1階段：更高的高點
兩個週期開始的方式是相同的。
一個強勁的看漲擴張，讓每個人都相信趨勢將永遠持續。

🐂 動能強勁。情緒亢奮。

🔻 第2階段：結構性突破
在更高的高點之後，價格未能繼續上漲。
支撐區破裂。動能轉移。

在喝咖啡之前的行程到$60,000和回來。

比特幣

上週末，比特幣做着它最擅長的事情：提醒交易者，噴火的龍並不僅僅存在於童話故事中。

在週四暴跌至$60,033後，焚燒了成千上萬的多頭頭寸，這個世界上最大的加密貨幣強勢反彈。到週五，它已經爬回到$70,000以上。儘管如此，這次回調是自2024年10月以來橙色硬幣的最低水平，約低於去年創下的$126,000的記錄52%。

到週一早上，比特幣看起來幾乎平靜。它徘徊在$70,700左右，幾乎沒有變化。與上週的價格走勢形成了鮮明對比。比特幣很少以直線形式移動，這又一次提醒了我們。