100tradesproject

BRU/USDT — Counter-Trend Short in a Bull Market
For Case #003 of my 100-Trades Project, I backtested a Breakdown Short setup on BRU.
This trade is especially interesting because I was looking for a short opportunity while the broader market was still bullish.
📖 The Candle Story
BRU started with a strong pump:
0.20 → 0.349
After the pump, price entered a consolidation zone between approximately 0.32 and 0.30.
Then the important move happened:
🔻 Price broke down through 0.28
Instead of entering immediately on the breakdown, I waited for confirmation.
Price retested the 0.30 area, but the retest failed.
After that rejection, price dropped toward 0.26.
Then price tested the 0.28 breakdown area again.
This time, price failed to reclaim 0.28 and continued to hold around 0.26.
That created my short setup.
🎯 Trade Plan
Short Entry: 0.26
Stop Loss: 0.30
Take Profit: 0.20
Risk: 0.04
Potential Reward: 0.06
➡️ Risk/Reward = 1 : 1.5
🧠 Why I Took the Short
My thesis was not simply:
“Price broke down, so I short.”
The setup was based on a sequence:
Pump → Consolidation → Breakdown → Retest → Retest Failure → Lower Low → Failed Reclaim → Short
The most important confirmation for me was the failure to reclaim the 0.28 breakdown level after price had already rejected from 0.30.
⚠️ The Biggest Risk
This is a counter-trend short.
The price had previously pumped from 0.20 to 0.349, meaning bullish pressure could still be present.
Therefore, I cannot automatically consider the breakdown a complete trend reversal.
The short thesis is better described as:
«A bearish correction setup inside a bullish market, rather than a confirmed full trend reversal.»
If price reclaims 0.30, my bearish thesis is invalidated.
📚 What I Learned From Case #003
1. Breakdown alone is not enough.
A breakdown becomes stronger when followed by a failed retest.
2. Retest failure gives better confirmation.
Waiting for the market to reject the broken level can reduce the risk of entering directly into a fake breakdown.
3. Failed reclaim is important.
The inability to reclaim 0.28 after the breakdown strengthened my short thesis.
4. Counter-trend trades require extra caution.
Even when the LTF structure looks bearish, the broader bullish trend can still produce a strong recovery pump.
5. A logical SL is more important than a random SL.
I placed the invalidation at 0.30 because reclaiming that area would weaken the entire breakdown thesis.
⭐ Backtest Score
Case #003 Setup Quality: 8/10
Breakdown Confirmation: 9/10
Retest & Rejection: 9/10
Entry Quality: 7/10
SL Placement: 9/10
RR: 7/10
Counter-Trend Risk: 6/10
🔥 Final Thought
Case #003 is not about whether this short wins or loses.
The real purpose of my 100-Trades Project is to collect enough trades to discover whether this specific Breakdown model has a real statistical edge.
I am testing one setup, documenting the story, following predefined Entry/SL/TP rules, and recording the lesson from every result.
Case #003 — BRU Breakdown Short
Entry: 0.26
SL: 0.30
TP: 0.20
RR: 1:1.5
Let's see what the market teaches me next. 📈📉
#100TradesProject
#TradingJournal #Backtesting #Breakdown #cryptotrading
$BTC
$ZEC
$BR

我目前正在進行一個100筆交易項目，以測試我的趨勢突破下破策略，使用：
• 市場結構
• 區間跌破
• 流動性
• 跌破確認
• 回測與拒絕
我的前兩個案例給了我一個重要的教訓。
兩筆空頭交易最終都失敗了，因爲價格逆着我的倉位拉昇，並觸及了我預設的止損。
🔴 案例 001 — 先盈利，再拉昇
拉昇 → 止損
在案例 001 中，我識別出一個看跌形態，並在預期下行延續的情況下建立了空頭倉位。