Bitcoin has historically been seen as a highly volatile asset, but its volatility has hit new lows, heralding the maturing of the original cryptocurrency market.
比特币历来被视为一种高度波动的资产，但其波动性屡创新低，预示原始加密货币市场的成熟。
In the short term, Bitcoin has experienced volatility in the last week, with prices fluctuating from $66,000 on Wednesday morning to nearly $70,000 later in the day. By the end of the week, the flagship token closed at just over $66,600, based on the Kaiko BTC benchmark reference rate. Overall, bitcoin is down a little more than 4 percent over the last week, with selling exceeding buying on almost all exchanges. Despite the rollercoaster ride driven by macro news, Bitcoin is already showing signs of maturity heading into 2024.
在短期内，随着美国宏观经济的更新，比特币上周经历了波动，价格从周三早上的66,000美元波动到当天晚些时候的近70,000美元。到本周末，根据Kaiko BTC基准参考利率，旗舰代币收于略高于66,600美元。总体而言，比特币上周下跌了4%多一点，几乎所有交易所的卖出量都超过了买入量。尽管在宏观消息的推动下坐过山车，但比特币已经在2024年显示出成熟的迹象。
Specifically, Bitcoin's 60-day historical volatility has remained below 50% since early 2023. This is in stark contrast to the mega-move of 2022, when volatility exceeds 100%. Bitcoin's volatility hit a record low of 40%, well below its peak of more than 106% when it hit a record high in 2021. Even the spot bitcoin ETF, launched in America, is relatively benign in terms of volatility.
具体而言，自2023年初以来，比特币的60天历史波动率一直保持在50%以下。这与2022年的巨动形成鲜明对比，当时波动率超过100%。比特币的波动性创下了40%的历史新低，远低于2021年创下历史新高时超过106%的峰值。即使是在美国推出的现货比特币ETF，在波动性方面也相对温和。
While it is too early to declare this the new normal, changes in the structure of the bitcoin market over the past year may help explain the relatively "boring" price movements. As BTC liquidity becomes more concentrated in the East Coast trading window, the US market closes now with a higher share of trading volume. Therefore, when analyzing price movements, demand trends for Bitcoin ETFs should not be ignored.
虽然现在宣布这是新常态还为时过早，但过去一年比特币市场结构的变化可能有助于解释相对“无聊”的价格走势。随着BTC流动性在东海岸交易窗口变得更加集中，美国市场收盘现在在交易量中占有更高的份额。因此，在分析价格走势时，不应忽视比特币ETF的需求趋势。
The reversal of U.S. bitcoin ETF inflows last week may have exacerbated some selling pressure, as did macroeconomic news. As with all emerging asset classes, cryptocurrencies are more likely to experience higher volatility due to new capital flows.
上周美国比特币ETF资金流入的逆转可能加剧了一些抛售压力，宏观经济新闻也是如此。与所有新兴资产类别一样，由于新的资本流动，加密货币更有可能经历更高的波动性。$BTC
