$BTC's drawdown keeps getting blamed on liquidations. The better explanation sits in the dollar, and in a Fed where two voters wanted a faster hike.
Short answer: Wednesday's minutes describe a meeting that happened before the CPI print that changed the argument. Read them for tone, not for December odds.
What is already priced:
- CME FedWatch data reported by CoinDesk on Nov 13 put 88% on a 25bp increase at the December meeting and 12% on 50bp.
- The Oct 28 decision held at 3.75%-4.00%, with Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissenting for a 25bp hike (Newsquawk).
- The dollar index traded above 103 on Nov 13, highest since April 2025.
The chain from rates to price:
- A policy rate is the return on cash. When it rises, an asset that pays no cash flow has to get cheaper to compete.
- A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced assets dearer for anyone holding another currency, thinning the marginal buyer.
- Minutes record an argument, not a decision. When newer data has already moved it, a hawkish record is old news when it prints.
Checks I have queued:
- Whether the 50bp case had more than one voice. Waller had said a half-point may be needed if October core CPI landed near 0.3%, and it did.
- The dollar index around 103: holding there keeps the squeeze on, slipping back would undercut the hawkish read.
- The Nov 18 release at 2:00 PM ET, per the Federal Reserve calendar.
- $BTC on Binance: $65,460 at 15:34 Kyiv, down 1.86% over 24 hours, range $62,006 to $66,960. A close above that range would say the rates story is losing its grip.
My working rule: when the driver is a rate decision, the calendar matters more than any single candle.
#WillFOMCMinutesReinforceRateHikeExpectations #Write2Earn
If the minutes sound hawkish but the dollar does not follow, which signal do you weight more for crypto, and why?
Short answer: Wednesday's minutes describe a meeting that happened before the CPI print that changed the argument. Read them for tone, not for December odds.
What is already priced:
- CME FedWatch data reported by CoinDesk on Nov 13 put 88% on a 25bp increase at the December meeting and 12% on 50bp.
- The Oct 28 decision held at 3.75%-4.00%, with Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissenting for a 25bp hike (Newsquawk).
- The dollar index traded above 103 on Nov 13, highest since April 2025.
The chain from rates to price:
- A policy rate is the return on cash. When it rises, an asset that pays no cash flow has to get cheaper to compete.
- A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced assets dearer for anyone holding another currency, thinning the marginal buyer.
- Minutes record an argument, not a decision. When newer data has already moved it, a hawkish record is old news when it prints.
Checks I have queued:
- Whether the 50bp case had more than one voice. Waller had said a half-point may be needed if October core CPI landed near 0.3%, and it did.
- The dollar index around 103: holding there keeps the squeeze on, slipping back would undercut the hawkish read.
- The Nov 18 release at 2:00 PM ET, per the Federal Reserve calendar.
- $BTC on Binance: $65,460 at 15:34 Kyiv, down 1.86% over 24 hours, range $62,006 to $66,960. A close above that range would say the rates story is losing its grip.
My working rule: when the driver is a rate decision, the calendar matters more than any single candle.
#WillFOMCMinutesReinforceRateHikeExpectations #Write2Earn
If the minutes sound hawkish but the dollar does not follow, which signal do you weight more for crypto, and why?