$BTC — my main call for the week: down to 74,000. Above 76,900 I'm wrong.
Three verified changes, no filler.
First, US labour stayed firm. BLS: October unemployment 4.1%, down from 4.2% in September. Nonfarm payrolls 159,293K versus 159,128K, so +165K jobs.
Second, sentiment is fearful, not euphoric. Fear and Greed prints 29, versus 28 a day ago and 37 a week ago.
Third, leverage is leaving the tape. Binance futures breadth shows 177 contracts up against 367 down, median -1.29%. $ETH -3.52% over 24h, open interest -7.2%, retail long ratio 3.85.
Firm jobs push the rate-cut path out. Crowded longs still pay: BTC funding +0.010% per 8h, retail long ratio 2.83.
Which comes first, 74,000 or 76,900?
Three verified changes, no filler.
First, US labour stayed firm. BLS: October unemployment 4.1%, down from 4.2% in September. Nonfarm payrolls 159,293K versus 159,128K, so +165K jobs.
Second, sentiment is fearful, not euphoric. Fear and Greed prints 29, versus 28 a day ago and 37 a week ago.
Third, leverage is leaving the tape. Binance futures breadth shows 177 contracts up against 367 down, median -1.29%. $ETH -3.52% over 24h, open interest -7.2%, retail long ratio 3.85.
Firm jobs push the rate-cut path out. Crowded longs still pay: BTC funding +0.010% per 8h, retail long ratio 2.83.
Which comes first, 74,000 or 76,900?
