ETH tests its 200-day average after a two-month low — $2,060 wick, $2,200 lost
$ETH trades near $2,160, down 3.3% in 24h (Binance, snapshot ~04:32 PKT). Today's candle is a big red one: open $2,240, intraday low $2,060 — below the two-month low Reuters flagged in late Sunday trade — and price now sits right on its 200-day average of $2,157. Range $2,060-$2,246, Binance volume $391M.
Why it fell:
- US midterms handed Democrats Congress — Reuters: investors fear tougher crypto regulation. BTC also hit a two-month low, $73,510 on Binance.
- The $6.3B Binance heist (29 Oct, FBI: North Korea's TraderTraitor) still hangs over the market. Binance says 98% of assets replenished, but customers have pulled a net $4.7B.
- Spot ETH ETFs lost $365M last week (Farside) — a sixth straight week of outflows.
- Hot US jobs data (+165K vs ~65K expected) lifted Dec rate-hike odds to ~80%.
- Vitalik, 8 Nov: ETH should be valued as a store of value, not on fee burn — only 2,694 ETH burned in 30 days (~$6M).
Technicals: below EMA20 $2,327 and SMA50 $2,493, RSI 40. Down 10.9% since the 4 Nov close of $2,425; 30d -13.2%, YTD -27.3%. ETH/BTC 0.0286, near its 30-day low.
Expectations — Deribit options, Fri 13 Nov expiry (not a guarantee):
- Reclaim $2,200 by Friday: ~39%
- Stay below $2,200: ~61%
- Above $2,300 by Friday: ~16% | Below $2,050: ~22%
- Options expect a ±5.6% move by Friday (ATM straddle $121). Put open interest is 2x calls — hedging is heavy.
Plan: no chasing, no knife-catching. The daily close (05:00 PKT) decides — close below SMA200 $2,157 confirms the break and opens $2,060, then $2,000. Dip only if $2,060 holds with a close back above $2,157. Add only on a daily close above $2,200. Targets: $2,300 / $2,425 / $2,493. Invalidation: daily close below $2,060. Spot only, half size max. Confidence: Low.
$ETH
#Ethereum #ETH #CryptoMarket
$ETH trades near $2,160, down 3.3% in 24h (Binance, snapshot ~04:32 PKT). Today's candle is a big red one: open $2,240, intraday low $2,060 — below the two-month low Reuters flagged in late Sunday trade — and price now sits right on its 200-day average of $2,157. Range $2,060-$2,246, Binance volume $391M.
Why it fell:
- US midterms handed Democrats Congress — Reuters: investors fear tougher crypto regulation. BTC also hit a two-month low, $73,510 on Binance.
- The $6.3B Binance heist (29 Oct, FBI: North Korea's TraderTraitor) still hangs over the market. Binance says 98% of assets replenished, but customers have pulled a net $4.7B.
- Spot ETH ETFs lost $365M last week (Farside) — a sixth straight week of outflows.
- Hot US jobs data (+165K vs ~65K expected) lifted Dec rate-hike odds to ~80%.
- Vitalik, 8 Nov: ETH should be valued as a store of value, not on fee burn — only 2,694 ETH burned in 30 days (~$6M).
Technicals: below EMA20 $2,327 and SMA50 $2,493, RSI 40. Down 10.9% since the 4 Nov close of $2,425; 30d -13.2%, YTD -27.3%. ETH/BTC 0.0286, near its 30-day low.
Expectations — Deribit options, Fri 13 Nov expiry (not a guarantee):
- Reclaim $2,200 by Friday: ~39%
- Stay below $2,200: ~61%
- Above $2,300 by Friday: ~16% | Below $2,050: ~22%
- Options expect a ±5.6% move by Friday (ATM straddle $121). Put open interest is 2x calls — hedging is heavy.
Plan: no chasing, no knife-catching. The daily close (05:00 PKT) decides — close below SMA200 $2,157 confirms the break and opens $2,060, then $2,000. Dip only if $2,060 holds with a close back above $2,157. Add only on a daily close above $2,200. Targets: $2,300 / $2,425 / $2,493. Invalidation: daily close below $2,060. Spot only, half size max. Confidence: Low.
$ETH
#Ethereum #ETH #CryptoMarket