@UBS says Tech bounce likely complete

UBS S&T's Zain Nizami thinks the oversold Tech bounce is likely complete. Fragile sentiment warrants reducing long directional exposure and caution on adding Tech risk again.

The rebound has been led by cyclical semiconductors. SK Hynix gained +21.6% and Samsung +12.8%, driving SOX (+7%) and Nasdaq (+2.4%). The tech-software ETF $IGV gained +1.1%. Semiconductor strength hasn't carried through to software to the same extent.

UBS's case for broadening into non-Tech cyclicals and the rest of the world is conditional. Oil needs to keep falling. The desk sees geopolitical shifts as critical to sustaining that momentum.