Is a $1.29B short book a warning sign, or just a hedge?
Abraxas Capital's two hedging accounts on Hyperliquid now hold over $1.29B in short positions, after banking more than $353M in total profit (lookonchain, Oct 26). All of this lands right before the Fed decides Oct 28 (2:00 PM ET), with Q3 GDP and PCE due Oct 29 at 8:30 AM ET.
Meanwhile the longs are bleeding. About $117M in long positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with ETH leading the flush at $39-54M. The single largest wipeout was a $7M ETH long on Binance. $BTC is holding $80,471 and $ETH $2,332, while the Coinbase premium has now been negative for 33 straight days. An Ethereum Foundation-linked wallet also sold 2,785 ETH ($6.42M) at $2,304 earlier today.
⚠️ But $1.29B in shorts does NOT mean a $1.29B bearish bet. These are hedging accounts, and hedges exist to offset exposure elsewhere. The trap is reading a giant short book as a market call. Abraxas made $353M doing this, and professionals hedge into weakness, they do not chase it.
My take: the real tell this week is the surprise, not the number. A Fed hold is 94% priced in on Polymarket, so the move comes from what Powell signals next, and from whether GDP and PCE beat or miss expectations.
🟢 Hold $79,745, then $80,000 breaks and shorts start covering
🔴 Lose $79,145, and $75,000 is the next level traders are watching
What to watch: the Fed decision Oct 28, GDP and PCE Oct 29 at 8:30 AM ET, and whether the Coinbase premium finally flips positive.
Are the big shorts hedging, or front-running a deeper flush? 👇
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#crypto #Bitcoin #FedDecision
Abraxas Capital's two hedging accounts on Hyperliquid now hold over $1.29B in short positions, after banking more than $353M in total profit (lookonchain, Oct 26). All of this lands right before the Fed decides Oct 28 (2:00 PM ET), with Q3 GDP and PCE due Oct 29 at 8:30 AM ET.
Meanwhile the longs are bleeding. About $117M in long positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with ETH leading the flush at $39-54M. The single largest wipeout was a $7M ETH long on Binance. $BTC is holding $80,471 and $ETH $2,332, while the Coinbase premium has now been negative for 33 straight days. An Ethereum Foundation-linked wallet also sold 2,785 ETH ($6.42M) at $2,304 earlier today.
⚠️ But $1.29B in shorts does NOT mean a $1.29B bearish bet. These are hedging accounts, and hedges exist to offset exposure elsewhere. The trap is reading a giant short book as a market call. Abraxas made $353M doing this, and professionals hedge into weakness, they do not chase it.
My take: the real tell this week is the surprise, not the number. A Fed hold is 94% priced in on Polymarket, so the move comes from what Powell signals next, and from whether GDP and PCE beat or miss expectations.
🟢 Hold $79,745, then $80,000 breaks and shorts start covering
🔴 Lose $79,145, and $75,000 is the next level traders are watching
What to watch: the Fed decision Oct 28, GDP and PCE Oct 29 at 8:30 AM ET, and whether the Coinbase premium finally flips positive.
Are the big shorts hedging, or front-running a deeper flush? 👇
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#crypto #Bitcoin #FedDecision
