🚀 Elon Musk confirmed that SpaceX and Tesla are discussing a merger. If the valuations hold, the combined company would be worth more than $3.5 trillion and would span artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, space launches, social networks, and robotics. Next year Tesla is expected to generate about $122 billion in revenue and SpaceX about $177 billion, or nearly $300 billion together if those forecasts hold up.
Betting markets are already pricing a high chance of an announcement. A Kalshi contract gives a 60% chance the deal is announced by May 1, 2027, and a Polymarket contract gives 66% by December 31, 2026.
The idea runs against how large corporations have behaved in recent years. They have more often been split apart than glued together. General Electric broke into GE Aerospace, GE Vernova, and GE Healthcare, with a combined market value of $522 billion. Western Digital and SanDisk are worth $178 billion and $128 billion. The same pattern includes Honeywell Aerospace, the Corteva and Vylor split, DuPont and Qnity Electronics, Danaher and Veralto, and the spin-off of FedEx Freight. The Invesco S&P Spin-Off ETF is up 90% over five years, while the S&P 500 is up 62%. A SpaceX-Tesla merger would be a bet in the opposite direction: not on a narrower business, but on one conglomerate that gathers almost all of Musk’s bets in a single company.
#ELONMUSK #ETF $TSLAB $SPCXB
Betting markets are already pricing a high chance of an announcement. A Kalshi contract gives a 60% chance the deal is announced by May 1, 2027, and a Polymarket contract gives 66% by December 31, 2026.
The idea runs against how large corporations have behaved in recent years. They have more often been split apart than glued together. General Electric broke into GE Aerospace, GE Vernova, and GE Healthcare, with a combined market value of $522 billion. Western Digital and SanDisk are worth $178 billion and $128 billion. The same pattern includes Honeywell Aerospace, the Corteva and Vylor split, DuPont and Qnity Electronics, Danaher and Veralto, and the spin-off of FedEx Freight. The Invesco S&P Spin-Off ETF is up 90% over five years, while the S&P 500 is up 62%. A SpaceX-Tesla merger would be a bet in the opposite direction: not on a narrower business, but on one conglomerate that gathers almost all of Musk’s bets in a single company.
#ELONMUSK #ETF $TSLAB $SPCXB