Good morning, and happy new week.
Welcome to another episode of my weekly BTC analysis, where I share my market view using the Profile Chart.
Last Week’s Recap
Sellers dominated the market throughout most of last week, leaving buyers with very little breathing room. The market found temporary acceptance below the 7/10 low, allowing sellers to push price toward the 79.7K area.
The CPI release added to the negative sentiment, while ongoing geopolitical tensions further affected market participants. The 14/10 POC area was not revisited during the week. However, the PPI release appeared to soften selling pressure, as the market failed to gain acceptance below the 20/09 low after buyers stepped in to defend the 79.7K area.
Only two of the six poor highs formed during the week were repaired. The area above the 14/10 value area high has also developed into strong resistance.
The lows of the 16/10, 17/10, and 18/10 profiles are weak, which further weakens the market structure.
Dominant Concerns
14/10 CPI release.
15/10 PPI release.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The Week Ahead
The week began strongly, but the current uptrend appears to be driven mainly by short covering. This could further weaken the move unless it is supported by genuine new money buying.
Selling pressure has persisted for two consecutive weeks, with sellers maintaining strong control. However, selling pressure could ease this week as the market approaches the FOMC meeting scheduled for 27–28 October.
Dominant Concern
21/10: 20 year Treasury bond auction.
Top Down Analysis
Monthly Timeframe
Buyers lost momentum last week, allowing sellers to take control and create a new low.
High: 87.2K.
Low: 79.7K.
Weekly Timeframe
The weekly timeframe has been one-time-framing lower for three consecutive weeks. This shows that sellers continue to control the timeframe.
I am concerned that the market could create another new low this week, allowing sellers to maintain control for a fourth consecutive week.
Can buyers defend 23/08 high?
Daily Timeframe
The market has not shown a clear upward direction this week. Therefore, I expect more choppy and range bound conditions unless price establishes acceptance outside the current range.
TPO Chart(m30)
The market left significant unfinished business last week, mainly at the highs. Much of the recent activity focused on repairing weak lows, which contributed to the market creating a new low.
The 16/10, 17/10, and 18/10 profile lows are structurally weak and could continue to weaken the upside. The weak low from 17/10 should remain classified as a weak low rather than a poor low.
At the upside, sellers are firmly defending the 84K area.
The 14/10 POC area has still not been revisited. This may suggest that selling pressure could reduce temporarily, although the market may still revisit the area later. For now, I expect a short term bullish move within the broader weak market structure.
Key Levels to Watch
15/10 low.
16/10 weak low.
17/10 weak low.
18/10 weak low.
14/10 value area high.
84K resistance.
14/10 POC area.
23/08 support price area.
Market Bias
My short term bias is cautiously bullish because sellers have not gained acceptance below the 20/09 low and the 14/10 POC remains unrevisited. However, the broader structure remains bearish because the weekly timeframe has been one timeframing lower for three consecutive weeks, while the 16/10, 18/10 lows remain weak.
Thanks for reading. I’d love to hear your thoughts. If you enjoyed it, leave a review and let me know what you would like to see in the next edition.